Edmonton Oiler Fans And Hypocrisy
by Derek Zona on Oct 5, 2010 6:30 AM MDT
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PrintMuch of what I'm going to talk about in this column comes from discussions that have taken place at mc79hockey, Oilersnation, HF Boards, on Oilers' Lunch, and on Twitter. If fan sentiment is markedly different outside of those sources, I apologize in advance, though I doubt it is any different considering those last four are frequented by the average rabid Oilers' fan.
Tyler has written a superfecta of posts and various writers at Oilersnation have responded, making mc79hockey and OilersNation ground zero for debate centered around sending Taylor Hall back to Junior and Magnus Paajarvi back to the AHL. Bob Stauffer of Oilers' Lunch followed up with some arguments that weren't well thought out, but he decided that he needed to enter the fray regardless. One of the central arguments of the group arguing in favor of keeping Hall and Paajarvi on the big club has been "...the Oilers must keep the players that have proved they belong in the NHL by out-playing their competition in training camp." After the jump, we'll look at why the vast majority of fans making this argument are hypocrites.
First off, let's start by saying this: If I were running the Edmonton Oilers, Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi would not be playing in Edmonton. I'd try to have both of them playing in Timra, though that's a topic of discussion for another time. My reasoning is simple: by starting the clock on their contracts now, the Oilers will not be able to afford to re-sign one of Ales Hemsky or Dustin Penner, or any comparable replacement, after the end of of the 2011-2012 season. This isn't up for debate, this is a simple extrapolation of the best-case/worst-case scenario for the upcoming contracts combined with the existing signed contracts. Holding each of them back for one season opens up a larger period of time where the Oilers won't have maximum cap pressure.
Now that we've got my stance on the Hall and Paajarvi situation out of the way, let's talk about why the "...best training camp players should play" argument is creating hypocrites throughout Edmonton. It's one thing for a proponent of seeing Hall and Paajarvi with the big club this season to make certain specific arguments as to why that should be the case, but it's quite another to apply a certain standard to a player in one case but not in others. And for large swath of Oilers' fans, the duplicitous nature of their argument is telling.
The team's best goaltender during Training Camp and preseason, both by the numbers and to the eye, was Martin Gerber. There is little argument here, virtually everyone agrees. Yet when he was sent to Oklahoma City last week, no one batted an eye. I mentioned it on Twitter and Tyler took that up in his latest post, but other than that it went unchallenged. Where were all of the people supporting the players that outplayed their competition in training camp? Where were the posts and threads supporting Gerber staying on the roster? They didn't exist.
Yesterday, the Oilers waived Liam Reddox and optioned Linus Omark to the Oklahoma City Barons after both of them outplayed their competition in training camp. In most cases, even though Omark was playing with Zack Stortini and Steve MacIntyre, opinion was that he outplayed Taylor Hall. There was a bit more support for Omark when compared to Gerber, but even that support was muted compared to the crowd that believes Hall and Paajarvi should stay in Edmonton. When Omark was cut, he reacted quickly and honestly. He called the process political and unfair. And he's right. He never had a chance of sticking with the big club, not while the Oilers were selling mini-packs with vignettes and ads featuring Hall, Paajarvi and Jordan Eberle. Yet when he spoke his mind, the fan reaction was to go against Omark for speaking out. Omark said what fans have been saying all along - the people that proved themselves in training camp should play. Omark didn't get a fair shake, and he still outplayed his competition. The words come from the fans, it's fine. The words come from the player, he's a jerk. Interesting.
All Liam Reddox did was blow the doors off of every forward in camp not named Paajarvi. He had everyone's attention through the second half of training camp and was a sure bet to make the squad. Yet when cut-down day arrived, he was waived, because Omark was right - there was never a real competition in camp - just look at the balance remaining in the Training Camp scrimmage teams. The fan reaction? Non-existent.
Jeff Petry and Alex Plante also clearly outplayed Theo Peckham and Jason Strudwick, but Peckham is waiver eligible, and there was no way the Oilers were going to waive him. Strudwick is a team favorite, so despite his on-ice performance, his presence in the room guaranteed him a roster spot. Where was the fan reaction to Petry and Plante being waived to make room for players that were outclassed in camp? Again, non-existent.
I'm happy to say that the commenters here have taken a different tack. The fellows that supported Hall staying because he played to a level deserving an NHL position are also livid that Reddox and Omark were sent down. But the commenters here are not the norm.
It's possible that Training Camp shouldn't matter. I've got no problems with ignoring Camp when making roster decisions, and I don't care that Edmonton did. However, when a fan hangs his hat on the idea that the best players deserve to make the roster like so many did with the Taylor Hall debate, they'd better damn well back that viewpoint up when it comes to other parts of the roster. They didn't. And for that, they are hypocrites.
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I just wish that the suits wouldn’t pretend that there was a competition, and that anyone could’ve made the team on merit, because there was no room for merit without someone changing their mind on a) the Three-Headed Monster, b) The Goon, or c) The Sales Crew.
Tell me again why I follow this team?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I just wish that the suits wouldn’t pretend that there was a competition,
I don’t mind that there is no competition. Most teams scout these players to death and know exactly what they have. My beef is with the fans, not the team, in this case.
I do think the three rookie + goon + three goalie + Strudwick approach is extremely wrong-headed, but that’s not the topic of this post.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, but the management decisions are what created this environment. If they don’t give out dipshit one-ways, maybe they aren’t waiving the wrong guys. I think that’s where the real ire should be directed. Fans are irrational; management shouldn’t be.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I don’t think anyone on the team is staying by virtue of having a one-way contract. The team decided in the summer that they wanted Strudwick as a leader and mentor, and MacIntyre as an enforcer. The jobs were never in doubt. If those guys had two-way deals, they’d still be on the roster. The other guys who have struggled like Fraser and Jones have some positive history in the NHL. It makes sense to keep them.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s more the other way around. Would Mac and Jacques and JDD and DD been given one-ways if they weren’t penciled in from minute one?
It’s not that Tambo decided they were staying in October because they had one-ways, but that Tambo decided they were staying in July and gave them one-ways.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
by Doogie2K on Oct 5, 2010 3:47 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Isn’t that smart though? I’d much rather have management decide on the players they want to keep before camp begins than base the decision on six games against schleps. If someone really outperforms, then you can adjust. Having jobs decided before camp seems like a pretty sound strategy to me.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 4:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Not when it’s bad hockey players. ;)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Fans are irrational; management shouldn’t be.
That ship sailed long ago, my friend. I’ve got no short-term hope of changing management, but I’ll do what I can to bring the fans around.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Training camp has several objectives, doesn’t it? If the sole objective of camp was some sort of individual elimination competition they would set it up that way, and guys would be voted off the island after cohort competitions at LW or RW or whatever.
I believe that many comments are based on a reflexive disapproval of management, which may have been deserved based on the past decade but which still gets old.
Draft day is for picking the best player available. Preseason is to create a team with balance at the NHL level and a development pool at the AHL level, while trying to optimize contracts, dollars, waiver vulnerability and the rest of the real world constraints.
Let’s not conclude that being on the waiver wire means being cast into the outer darkness, never to return. It just means that in the first week of October, management exercised its rights and obligations as well as they knew how, and staffed two teams under their control.
The service that we commenters can provide includes perspective, analysis and feedback, seasoned with entertainment (eg, Omark got Schremped). But when the comments are reflexively disapproving, they lose my interest.
And I would agree with you if there was any evidence management was optimizing shit. There isn’t, and they aren’t. Thus the disapproval.
I find the negativity tiresome, too, but I find management’s antics just as tiresome, so it all balances out. It generally ends with me watching more WHL than NHL. Again.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
yes but this is contradictory to everything Tambellini said and did prior to August. He stressed on not rushing prospects untill they are ready. He stressed on players having to battle for a job. He said that he has learnt from the past mistakes of the Oilers and has achieved clarity.
Result: All 3 kids were as doogie says: the sales crew. They were virtually handed out the jobs when they were handing out the season tickets Even when Hall hasnt looked ready, there is no indication from the team that he has to improve and show that he belongs here, but we have an interview from Tambellini enamored by Hall’s skills and potential.
Yoga or no yoga Smacintyre is useless. He is a someone who can and should be replaced by Reddox based on the pre-season play. In the 2 games against flames, he was atrocious. In the 1st game he had a minor and a non-fighting major that puts your team on PK fr 5 minutes.
In the second game he did not even fight. Why was he in the lineup then?
So what have the oilers done differently this season? They had the roster planned out since the off-season and they showed no regards to on-ice play. Derek is right. Best of the fringe players got sent to the minors. All the kids are getting rushed. If Toronto can send down their most promising prospect, especially when they desperately need to sell hope, I am sure that the Oilers can too.
And most dont feel anything. They are happy to see the three rookies play. They dont care about the bull shit that is fed to them by the management. They dont care about the long term situation, only what is better every season.
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
Count this as reflexive disapproval.
Tambellini’s hypocrisy (talk vs. action) is matched only by his lack of acumen in managing a team successfully.
I agree totally with the idea of sending Hall back for a multitude of reasons related to play and ability. Keeping Omark was the no-brainer here. Reddox vs Jones was a bit of a saw-off as Willis pointed out, but there was room for both without the atrocious off-season maneuvers by the exalted GM.
One of the dreams I keep having is the realisation by someone important that there is a void in managerial decision making for the Oilers after a season more of this dreadful on-ice product and that ST is fired in favour of anyone else not named Milbury or Sather.
Nothing you can say but you can learn how to play the game;
It's easy - Lennon
One of the dreams I keep having is the realisation by someone important that there is a void in managerial decision making for the Oilers after a season more of this dreadful on-ice product and that ST is fired in favour of anyone else not named Milbury or Sather.
The managerial decision-making is slowly making me a less-passionate fan of the team. I’ve begun a tack towards rooting for individuals on the team, and I’m not the only one.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 5, 2010 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
It just means that in the first week of October, management exercised its rights and obligations as well as they knew how, and staffed two teams under their control.
Again, as I said above, I have no problems with a team not holding an open training camp. My issue is with the fans of this team applying concepts in specific situations and debates and not applying it broadly because it doesn’t suit their interests. This has nothing to do with the Oilers’ management at this point.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sidetracking a bit here….
The Oilers made some smart moves and they made some dumb moves this pre-season.
We’ve all relegated ourselves to this being a developmental year, so sending down a Gerber to keep a DD/JDD makes sense. Even if Gerber is the better goalie today they Oilers are better off seeing if one of those 2 can become something more because Gerber won’t be an option in 2-3 years.
Using Plante & Petry’s non-waiver status makes sense as well, as does waiving Petiot/Belle for a guy like Peckham (side note: could you imagine a defence consisting of Plante, Petry, Peckham and Petiot? No wonder Rod retired.). Peckham’s play doesn’t matter so much now as it does in 2-3 years so you might as well see what you’ve got in the kid this year.
That being said, keeping a Strudwick over Petiot makes almost no sense. I get he’s “good in the room”, so pay him to sit in the room. It’s a better use of the money and roster spot.
Sending Omark down also makes no sense. The guy has played pretty well despite not having much in linemates the past couple of games. He’s also played in 2 pretty good leagues the last 2 years.
Potentially losing Reddox for Smac is a poor risk as well. This is a rebuilding year right? Why not play Reddox as a top pker and see if he can grow into that role? If he can’t you haven’t lost a damn thing. If he can you’ve got one of your guys who can potentially provide great contract value.
Championship teams need guys who can fill roles like that. Why not try a 24 year old out? He can grow with the rest of the young talent so the Oilers can focus on adding to the roster somewhere else.
Same reason I’d also take a chance on Grabner on waivers. Even he doesn’t pan out he costs you nothing but money. If he does work out that’s a trading chip (either him or someone else on your roster). This is also the same argument for Omark.
This would have been my opening night roster:
C: Horcoff, Gagner, Brule, Fraser
LW: Penner, Omark, Cogliano, Reddox, Jones
RW: Hemsky, Eberle, Grabner, Stortini, Smac (too keep everyone happy)
D: Gilbert, Whitney, Foster, Smid, Vandermeer, Peckham, Petiot
G: Khabibulin, DD
The Oilers lose absolutely nothing by going with this roster as opposed to their current one.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Completely sidetracking, here’s an article regarding one of Tambellini’s questionable pre-pre-season moves (or non-moves):
http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news?slug=nc-comrie100310
Mike Comrie could be the luckiest man alive.
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 5, 2010 9:40 AM MDT up reply actions
I don’t have an issue with the Oilers not signing Comrie.
Again, I don’t think he brings much to this team long term and it’s a roster spot for evaluation.
It is a great signing by Pittsburgh though and I chose him with the last pick in all 3 of my fantasy hockey leagues.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
The Ridiculous: Strudwick and SMac. At this point, they’re not worth talking about, because (to me) its pretty cut and dried.
The Subjective:
- Its obvious Hall is an amazing talent… but he’s 18 and he’s looking like it. The problem as I see it is there are only two options available. 1, he stays with the Oil, gets thrown in the deep end, and hopefully learns to swim by year’s end rather than get swamped, give up and drown (and/or burn a year of his ELC/RFA status). Option 2 is back to Windsor, and you can at least understand Oiler mgmt’s position that “he’s past that”. But, comparing those two options, and considering the CBA/cap implications, option 2 is the most logical choice. If it were possible to send him to Sweden or the AHL, that would be the obvious best option (right?).
- I think Paajarvi and Eberle will actually contribute and develop this year, so I have no problem keeping them here.
- Omark and Reddox (and Giroux to a lesser extent) losing spots to any of Smac, Jones (and possibly Fraser) is just dumb. A situation where “need an enforcer” and 1-way contracts trumps actual hockey playing skills.
- Petiot, in my opinion, was obviously better than Peckham or Belle, and certainly Strudwick.
These points seem obvious to me. So obvious, that it does beg the question you possed: why have training camp? or more specifically, why tell players they can compete for jobs? Because when you do, and they come and outperform their competitors but still get sent down, you’re going to have some pretty bitter players.
I’m willing to give Renney the benifit of the doubt in regards to the beef at the bottom of the line up. It is apparently his ‘style’, and he’s had success teaching an ape to sign (so to speak) in the past.
This is the first time I’ve heard the Hall to Timra idea, and frankly…… you are the winner. It seems like it would be an act of good faith for both players and teams alike, and what (strait) Canadian boy wouldn’t die to live in Sweden for a year.
Apparantly there was some disagreements between Renny and Tambo on who too keep and who to send down.
One of them being Reddox, the other being the 3rd goalie.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Just banter on the message boards. Renney apparantly liked Reddox and was also saying earlier that he didn’t want 3 goalies.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
It’s pretty clear that he didn’t want three goalies, and Reddox played well, so the hubbub seems logical to me.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 11:54 AM MDT up reply actions
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3492
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
This is the first time I’ve heard the Hall to Timra idea, and frankly…… you are the winner. It seems like it would be an act of good faith for both players and teams alike, and what (strait) Canadian boy wouldn’t die to live in Sweden for a year.
I’ll have a post on it tomorrow afternoon.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He would be the winner with the Sweden idea if it were tenable. As far as I know, players drafted out of the CHL must be offered back to their CHL teams if they aren’t going to play in the NHL. There are probably some ways around this, but it’s not as simple as just sending him over. There’s a reason no one has done it yet after all.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 11:53 AM MDT up reply actions
Ignore this if you’re planning to cover this in a future post (or have you already covered this and I missed it?), but I’m curious about your Timra idea. I thought the CHL had priority if Hall gets sent down. Or is your idea that the Oilers loan Hall and Paajarvi to the SEL? How would this work?
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 5, 2010 9:25 AM MDT reply actions
The CHL does have priority.
That being said the Oilers could probably provide some incentive to have Windsor pass (unless that is not allowed by something in the agreement between the CHL & NHL).
Not sure how much money that would represent though. Taylor Hall probably represents a packed house in Windsor every night.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
PRESEASON 2010-2011 EDMONTON OILERS (4-2)
POS NO. PLAYER GP G A PTS +/-
LW 91 *Paajarvi, Magnus 3 3 1 4 0
C 54 *Vande Velde, Chris 3 2 2 4 4
LW 10 Horcoff, Shawn 3 2 2 4 0
D 48 *Plante, Alex 2 0 4 4 1
D 6 Whitney, Ryan 3 0 4 4 2
C 14 *Eberle, Jordan 4 2 1 3 0
LW 27 Penner, Dustin 4 2 1 3 2
LW 23 *Omark, Linus 3 1 2 3 1
LW 4 *Hall, Taylor 3 1 2 3 0
C 67 Brule, Gilbert 4 0 3 3 2
RW 25 Ondrus, Ben 3 1 1 2 2
D 2 Vandermeer, Jim 3 0 2 2 2
D 26 Foster, Kurtis 3 0 2 2 1-
NO. GOALTENDER GPI MINS AVG SV%
29 Gerber, Martin 2 64 0.94 97.0
38 Deslauriers, Jeff 3 88 2.05 91.4
40*Dubnyk, Devan 3 92 2.61 92.0
35 Khabibulin, Nikolai 2 120 3.50 88.1
(Boldface - sent down anyway)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
I don’t get why everyone is up in arms over pre-season results. So you beat up against other AHL’ers… so you get to play on the big team?
Pre-season is a great time to evaluate the talent. Reddox and Omark have to be clear favorites now to get the next call-up. Some solid games in the AHL to bring up the sample size will make that a sure thing. If so, then training camp and pre-season served its purpose, if not, then I’d actually care.
Reddox outplaying Jones does not make it wise to waive Jones, and I think everyone has acknowledged that point. So really, the issue is SMac and JFJ over Reddox. I don’t like SMac’s role, but as far as asset management goes, you’d think your better off sending Reddox through the wire now when there is a surge of competition then a month into the season. If they sour (please god) on JFJ or SMac then there is no fear of someone picking them up when you bring Reddox back to the team. If Jones doesn’t earn his way onto the team within the first little stint then it’s time to re-evaluate.
Arguing the rookies playing or not is a different issue. Do you prioritize development over long-term plans. For those that value development above the plans, I haven’t yet been convinced that a #1OV would benefit from playing in the CHL instead of a minor role in the NHL. It appears that Oiler management has decided that and I don’t think they are incompetent for taking the traditional route. So Omark may have been competing for a spot, but he was never competing against Hall. I don’t know why fans believed they were in competition for the same job when Tambellini was very clear which 3 rookies he expected to be making the team before camp even started.
Of all 6 game stints, this one should matter the least. The choices made were to optimize asset management and I don’t know why so many are crying foul on that.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 1:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Bruce is just put up the pre-season stats and highlighted the players sent down. I doubt he is making some sort of a statement here, cuz if he was, he would have said it.
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
You know me well, Sum. I’m not making any kind of statement, just letting the numbers speak for themselves. I’ve already said my piece on what the games mean, and how outcomes are seriously corrupted by QualComp or lack thereof. Plante, Vande Velde and Omark all had promising preseasons which is good news, but I’m not convinced any of them will be hurt by some OKC time.
FWIW, Omark didn’t outscore any of Eberle, Paajarvi or Hall in the preseason.
Of most concern to me is the upsidedownedness of the goalie stats. Gerber was the best goalie in camp, Khabibulin the worst, both by eye and by number.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 5, 2010 1:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Bruce, I know you’ve stated the little merit of the stats in pre-season. My post wasn’t in response your thoughts, and not even to this post directly – just seemed a reasonable place to say my peace.
I completely agree with concern with Gerber outplaying Khabi. Tambellini seems so star-struck by his signing that he must refuse to see the situation as it is… he could at least acknowledge that Khabi needs to improve.
Gerber’s demotion does somewhat re-affirm my beliefs that these re-assignments now are more based on proper asset management then awarding players performing well early-on. I think the 3-headed monster will be a temporary thing until the other goalie prospects are sent down.. There’s lots of time for this all to pan out.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 3:49 PM MDT up reply actions
I feel like adding that by panning out I am implying sensibility or competency. I think there are better strategies for the goalies and some real options on waivers that all sound better.
I was impressed enough with a few of the off-season moves that I’m trying to give Tambellini the benefit here before jumping over the little things. He doesn’t have to be the-best-gm-in-hockey to please me, just not a hindrance to the org. Maybe my bar is just lower than others.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not at all upset by most the decisions made yesterday, though I am a bit miffed that the goalie situation still isn’t resolved. That’s more just being annoyed that they won’t make a call than anything (and it costs them a waiver pick-up).
I do not, however, think that keeping Hall and sending Omark down is the best way to manage (hockey) assets (keeping Hall is clearly good for business). Omark is an older prospect, and sending Hall away gives the club an opportunity to better evaluate the older players. Omark for sure, but also guys like Brule, Cogliano, Gagner, and Eberle. If after the season, the player isn’t in the plans, hopefully he can be moved for other assets. Is Omark’s value greater after a season in the NHL or the AHL? Of 30 points (EV time) or 45 points (EV + PP time)? With Hall in the mix, it’s likely that the Oilers are less able to optimize value on others. The two are in fact in direct competition for ice time and for a top nine role. If Hall were sent back to junior, who would take his spot in the lineup? I think it would be Omark.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions
Fair enough. But I think that is a much easier decision to make from the sidelines than under the heat.
Recent tradition has the #1OV starting in the NHL and being a solid contributor by year 2. If Hall gets sent down and in any way doesn’t meet his projected potential then the GM will be hearing about it for years. Not only that, but your boss would also be pissed at lowered ticket sales and a number of fans would throw a fit. There are some places where I think I’d be ballsy as a GM, but bucking that trend would not be one of them.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 3:56 PM MDT up reply actions
From a development perspective, I also think Hall has the ability to become better here then in the CHL. I can’t say that is true for sure, but challenging a player of his skills seems likely to help develop them early.
As has been pointed out in other places, the top difference makers are what really defines a team. For that reason I wouldn’t sacrifice development of my B level talent for any A level talent; regardless of the other factors.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t think there’s any evidence to suggest Hall will develop better in the NHL than in the CHL (or vice versa). It’s time we all admit that’s an unknown. That said, I think your other points are sound. It makes good business sense to keep Hall in Edmonton, and it makes good sense for Tambellini personally as well. The Oilers probably don’t see the contractual benefit of sending Hall (and/or Paajarvi) down for four years (that extra year on the ELC). If Tambellini sends Hall back after all of this hype and has trouble getting renewals for 2011-12 after another poor season, it’s possible (probable?) that he gets canned before he sees any of the benefit of his decision. Given the job uncertainty, it’s probably smarter for him to keep Hall in NHL and use him to sell tickets.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 4:50 PM MDT up reply actions
What sort of evidence are you looking for, and is it even possible short of cloning a guy or splitting up the 18 y.o. Sedin twins?
I would accept GM after GM keeping the #1 overall up in the bigs each year as evidence that they all think he will develop better playing the big boys.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 5, 2010 4:55 PM MDT up reply actions
I just don’t think it’s testable. A lot of good players have gone back to the CHL and have had success. Other have gone straight to the NHL and had success. There have been some failures with both as well. I don’t think we can say much more than both methods have worked for high-end talent. The appeal to authority isn’t particularly convincing to me in that I don’t think those teams make consistently good decisions. Since 2001, we’ve seen Don Waddell (terrible, “promoted”), Doug MacLean (terrible, fired), Craig Patrick (fired), Dale Tallon (fired), Brian Lawton (fired), and Garth Snow (not fired!) bring forwards straight to the NHL after drafting them first overall. Why should I trust those guys?
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 6:01 PM MDT up reply actions
I would think the burden of proof would be on those suggesting that going back to junior would hurt their development. Obviously, we don’t have a sample of No 1s going down to compare with, but there are a lot of 2-10s who’ve gone down and not suffered at all. Can’t see how it’d hurt Hall, long-term, and it might avoid some of the growing pains other No 1s have suffered in their early years.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
by Doogie2K on Oct 5, 2010 4:00 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
But it doesn’t seem to help the 2-10’s outperform the #1, so I don’t think you could claim it was an advantage for them to have the year. I’m not saying it is a disadvantage, but when you get a player that is of the Tavares/Stamkos tree (give or take), I’d be sure to mold it in the same manner that those players were.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Oct 5, 2010 4:04 PM MDT up reply actions
Or the Duchene / EKane tree. They seemed to do alright in their 18 y.o. season, despite having less draft pedigree than Hall does at this moment.
I’m quite prepared to give Taylor a few months to acclimatize to the new level of competition. It’s not going to happen overnight, or even in the preseason. Hall played all of 3 games, and scored 3 points, which suggests that he’s not quite being overwhelmed out there, even as he clearly has lots of work to do. Might as well start doing it.
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by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 5, 2010 4:52 PM MDT up reply actions
Gilbert Brule and Mikkel Boedker, on the other hand, got killed in the NHL as teenagers. For some guys going straight to the NHL has worked well and probably helped them, and for others it’s probably done the opposite.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions
I guess I just don’t necessarily see the #1 being a different class of player entirely than #2 or #3, at least. Not every year, anyway. Crosby vs. Ryan, yes. Tavares vs. Hedman/Duchene? Eh, we need more time.
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I don’t know Mr. Zona – I think you’re being a bit hard on the fanbase here. It’s seemed to me – and my stomping grounds for Oilers-related reading are basically here, ON, Lowetide, and MC79 – that the opinion of the majority of the fans is in line with yours. People seem to feel that Reddox and Omark got a bit of a raw deal, and that Omark’s comments, while obviously heated and emotional, were not particularly out of line. I also have not really been aware of any great clamour on the part of the fanbase for the notion that opening night roster spots should be awarded based solely on training camp performance; most everyone that I’ve read on the subject seems well aware that other factors (contract status etc) are at play. Now it would not surprise me at all to learn that the hypocrisy and/or cognitive dissonance against which you’ve quite rightly placed yourself is out there, but I don’t think it’s as prevalent as you’ve indicated.
All that said, I think the idea of the Oilers having a working relationship with a team in Europe is beyond brilliant, and I’m looking forward to your post on the subject!
1) The decisions on Hemsky and Penner likely have to be made next summer, not in 2012. This season is really the only opportunity for overlap, where Hemsky and Penner take the tough opposition, and allow the three amigos to be eased into the NHL with easier minutes.
Corollary: Without Hemsky and Penner playing with the three amigos this year, they would lack critical information necessary for them to decide whether they want to stay or go, a decision that likely has to be made next summer.
2) I am perplexed by the massive conniption some people have about who makes the team out of training camp. On a young team like the Oilers, who is up (in the NHL) and who is down (in the AHL) can change quickly. As a general rule, every player should be forced to take all the steps, except for the exceptions. So Petry, Plante, Vande Velde, Omark, etc should have to demonstrate that they are too good for the AHL (as Eberle has done already). (It took Ryan Smyth about 10 games to prove he was too good for the AHL. Horcoff about 30.)
3) Paajarvi and Hall the the exceptions. With Hall there is no choice. And Hall has nothing left to prove in junior. And well, in 9 games, I think Paarjarvi will eliminate any doubt as to where he should be.
I feel for Omark, but he is caught in a numbers game partially of his own making, but there is a quick solution to this. Be too good for the AHL.
I don’t think proving anything in junior matters. It’s whether he can still grow in the OHL and I think the answer to that one is yes.
Like a lot of 18 year olds, he’s probably too good for the OHL and not good enough for the NHL.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
The goaltending situation is laughable in general. Petiot, Petry and Plante were clearly better than Peckham and Strudwick. Omark was better than some of the players in the top nine (ie: Cogliano), and by the end of camp it looked like you could make a better entire fourth line out of players who were waived compared to the players who were kept.
But the only ones who have a case are Omark and Gerber. Omark lost mainly to Cogliano, who management seems to be crossing their fingers over – either that he’ll learn to play or that they’ll finally succeed in trading him. Gerber lost to managements irrational fear of exposing JDD or Dubnyk to waivers. The rest of the players had their spots given to pugilists, because Renney loves goons. He’s probably going to be disappointed when he realizes none of them know how to play hockey like he’s used to, though.
Pretty sure I can recall nearly all of this being discussed at HF.
Is there any reason in particular you felt like Cogliano’s job was in jeopardy? This is the first time I’ve heard that suggestion.
As for Gerber, he never really had a chance to win an NHL job. He may well be the best goaltender in the organization at the moment, but he was signed to play in the AHL, and had no chance to earn a job no matter how well he showed in camp. Frankly, that’s how it should be. Deciding that Gerber should be the backup because of a few good games in camp would be goofy.
Who are these goons with skill that Renney’s had before? Colton Orr and Ryan Hollweg are both pretty terrible hockey players. It seems to me MacIntyre fits right in.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 5, 2010 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions
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