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Ales Hemsky Continues To Be One Of The Best

Ales Hemsky remains underrated, unheralded, and unappreciated around the league because he plays in Edmonton.  If Hemsky were part of the New York Rangers or Toronto Maple Leafs, the team would no doubt be petitioning to have him recognized as a perennial All-Star - and I'm not talking about the mid-season version.  But that lack of recognition doesn't come as a huge surprise; the Oilers, after all, have been as bad as any organization in the league over the last several seasons.  No, what's surprising is that Hemsky remains underrated, unheralded and unappreciated in Edmonton as well.

The criticisms abound: "He's not a scorer, he's a playmaker."  "He's not a dominant forward."  "He dangles too much and only plays on the perimeter."  "He's not tough."   It's my view that all four of these complaints are overblown (or outright false), but I'm most interested in doing a statistical exploration on the second one.

Star-divide

The table below shows the top thirty points per game scoring rates among right wingers who've played more than one season since the lockout.

Right Wing
PPG
Jaromir Jagr 1.179
Daniel Alfredsson 1.134
Marian Gaborik 1.113
Jarome Iginla 1.048
Marian Hossa 1.041
Martin St. Louis 1.029
Teemu Selanne 1.007
Patrick Kane 0.943
Ales Hemsky 0.923
Martin Havlat 0.878
Steve Sullivan 0.847
Shane Doan 0.820
Alex Kovalev 0.818
Brian Gionta 0.796
Jason Pominville 0.795
Bobby Ryan 0.780
J.P. Dumont 0.774
Milan Hejduk 0.772
Maxim Afinogenov 0.762
Corey Perry 0.736
Justin Williams 0.735
Jamie Langenbrunner 0.732
Mike Knuble 0.723
Mark Recchi 0.714
Martin Erat 0.710
Glen Murray 0.688
Jonathan Cheechoo 0.684
David Vyborny 0.680
Todd Bertuzzi 0.671
Petr Sykora 0.661

 

Hemsky ranks ninth by this metric, just short of a point per game.  Ice-time effects, however, aren't accounted for in the table above.  The next table shows the top thirty points per sixty minutes of time on ice among right wingers since the lockout, and as you might have guessed, Hemsky does a little bit better:

Right Wing
P/60
Teemu Selanne 3.464
Marian Gaborik 3.373
Jaromir Jagr 3.300
Daniel Alfredsson 3.206
Ales Hemsky 3.110
Marian Hossa 3.067
Patrick Kane 3.018
Jarome Iginla 2.929
Bobby Ryan 2.864
Maxim Afinogenov 2.835
Martin Havlat 2.832
J.P. Dumont 2.787
Alexander Radulov 2.750
Martin St. Louis 2.744
Steve Sullivan 2.721
Michel Ouellet 2.703
Corey Perry 2.664
Jason Pominville 2.613
Alex Kovalev 2.586
Chris Stewart 2.568
Brian Gionta 2.537
Jonathan Cheechoo 2.480
Shane Doan 2.467
Jeff O'Neill 2.459
Milan Hejduk 2.446
Petr Sykora 2.432
Marek Svatos 2.412
Martin Erat 2.405
Ryane Clowe 2.401
Anson Carter 2.395

 

Using the per sixty metric, Hemsky's rates jump ahead of Hossa, Kane, Iginla and Ryan.  But this is, after all, just right wingers, and as you can see by some of the names on the first two lists, there isn't exactly a tonne of elite players on right wing.  What about comparing him to all wingers in the NHL, rather than just right wingers?  Let's take a look at the top thirty:

All Non-center Forwards
P/60
Alex Ovechkin 3.613
Teemu Selanne 3.464
Marian Gaborik 3.373
Daniel Sedin 3.331
Jaromir Jagr 3.300
Alexander Semin 3.289
Dany Heatley 3.206
Daniel Alfredsson 3.206
Henrik Zetterberg 3.127
Ales Hemsky 3.110
Marian Hossa 3.067
Ilya Kovalchuk 3.046
Patrick Kane 3.018
Patrik Elias 2.989
Thomas Vanek 2.936
Jarome Iginla 2.929
Ray Whitney 2.909
Bobby Ryan 2.864
Ladislav Nagy 2.861
Maxim Afinogenov 2.835
Andrew Brunette 2.832
Martin Havlat 2.832
Zach Parise 2.829
Alex Tanguay 2.825
J.P. Dumont 2.787
Alexander Radulov 2.750
Martin St. Louis 2.744
Simon Gagne 2.730
Kristian Huselius 2.725
Paul Kariya 2.723

 

Tenth spot.  That's right, Ales Hemsky has been the tenth most efficient scoring winger in the league since the lockout, and he's demonstrated the ability to score at an even higher rate when paired with a competent player on left wing.  Since Dustin Penner's arrival, the depth at left wing has been eroding, and by the start of last season, it was easily the worst in the league.  When Penner was in Craig MacTavish's doghouse, MacTavish began the year with an out-of-position Erik Cole, and then later tried Ethan Moreau on Hemsky's wing.  When Pat Quinn arrived, he was enamoured with J-F Jacques and immediately elevated him to Hemsky's line.  It was akin to the awkward top of the lineup push that Brad Isbister received no matter where he went.

Give Hemsky a competent left winger and he'll anchor one of the best lines in the league.  Even without one on a consistent basis, he's hanging on as one of the top ten offensive wingers in the NHL while taking on the best other teams have to offer and getting his fair share of time in the defensive zone.  He consistently draws more penalties than he takes, and he's a difference-maker when his team is up a man.  Fans continue to heap expectations on the new blood, and expect that, in relatively short order, Taylor Hall will be this team's offensive leader.  But there's a long way to go for Hall to produce offense like Ales Hemsky, and surely an even longer road before he can do it as well against the league's best.  And that shouldn't be an insult; after all, to be as good as Ales Hemsky means being in the same class as Alfredsson, Zetterberg, Hossa, and Kovalchuk.  It means being a difference-maker at evens and on the power play.  It means being both a complete player, and one of the very best offensive wingers in the game.  To be as good as Ales Hemsky means being a star.

Comment 19 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Hemsky

I must admit I have enjoyed watching Hemmer dance around the oposition. That said; last game it didn’t put up points. When he was is position to score he couldn’t pull the trigger. Not real sure what to think at this point. I contrast that with Horc and Dustin who have just looked comfortable with the young guys, even creating synergy; then I see Hemsky and I have not observed any line cohesiveness so far.
This is not the fault of the young guys, they are geting the puck to him.
It is going to be a long hard season if he doesn’t find some chemistry with these guys. H.E.M. are going to make this team. Hemmer needs to adapt – he is the vet. His leadership is required.

by OilerBill on Oct 3, 2010 7:32 AM MDT reply actions  

dont think anything. Let the games begin.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Oct 3, 2010 7:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

huh....

This is an article about how Ales has been one of the best forwards in the league since the lockout 5 years ago (6?) and your concern is how he performed in an EXHIBITION game with a bunch of rookies that have yet to play 1 regular season NHL game.

As far as adjusting… isn’t that the whole point of this article? It seems no matter what he gets on his line, he produces.

by Czechboy on Oct 3, 2010 9:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

It seems no matter what he gets on his line, he produces.

Word.

by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 3, 2010 9:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

Using the per sixty metric, Hemsky’s rates jump ahead of Hossa …

Whoa, how about some context? Per 60 of all ice time is relatively meaningless. Let’s break it down into role:

Hemsky
=====
T.O.I. = 5575
EVTOI = 4160 = 74.6%
PPTOI = 1359 = 24.4%
SHTOI = 55 = 1.0%

Hossa
=====
T.O.I. = 7435
EVTOI = 5082 = 68.4%
PPTOI = 1630 = 21.9%
SHTOI = 724 = 9.7%

Hossa spends 10x as much time on the PK as Hemsky. Your method penalizes Hossa for this capability, and rewards Ales for his lack of contribution in this area. Let’s look at actual points per situation:

Hemsky
=====
Pts = 289 = 3.11 /60
EVP = 152 = 2.19 /60
PPP = 136 = 6.00 /60
SHP = 1 = 1.09 /60

Hossa
=====
Pts = 380 = 3.07 /60
EVP = 217 = 2.56 /60
PPP = 142 = 5.23 /60
SHP = 21 = 1.74 /60

Hemsky is a little more productive on the PP, and more power to him, but that makes up a much more significant portion of his overall game. Hossa outscores Hemsky by 17% at evens, and is one of the elite SH scorers in the league (2nd in NHL in SHG since the lockout). But because he “only” scores at 1¾ points per 60 in pretty major minutes it drags his overall P /60 rate down to slightly below Hemsky’s. Do you really think that makes Ales a more productive player tham Marian?

Haven’t got time to do the same comp for other guys on the list but Hossa jumped off the page as a “hey wait a minute!” type. Let’s just say there aren’t many who have a more favourable distribution of ice time than Hemsky, so his raw P /60 rate have to be taken with a big dollop of salt.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 3, 2010 8:04 AM MDT reply actions   2 recs

fine hossa is better.
But kovalchuk, kane, Iginla?

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Oct 3, 2010 8:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

To be fair Hossa generally played with better line mates (e.g., Crosby) than Hemsky, but you’re right.

by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 3, 2010 9:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

crosby is a terrible example of hossa’s linemates. Crosby was with Hossa for one post season!
Also last season, if memory serves right, Hossa played more with Sharp than Toews or Kane.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Oct 3, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

True enough, although Sharp is obviously no slouch (still better than most of Hemsky’s recent linemates). Giving it more thought, I can’t actually remember Hossa’s Atlanta linemates. I don’t remember him playing much with Kovalchuk.

by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 3, 2010 10:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

Actually I think the opposite is ture. Most of the guys listed have the same favourable ice time distribution as Hemsky does.

Hossa though, is a freak. What a fantastic player.

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Oct 3, 2010 9:48 AM MDT up reply actions  

I think if we are at the point where the argument is who is better – Hemsky or Hossa? Well, that is great for Ales. It’s not like we are asking who is better – Hemsky or Grabovski?lol However, I’m sure he’d like some of that Hossa money!

by Czechboy on Oct 3, 2010 10:01 AM MDT up reply actions  

i will like hemsky at hoosa money 5.3 mil/year

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Oct 3, 2010 10:34 AM MDT up reply actions  

I totally agree that the context of ice time is going to make a huge difference for these guys, and one of the most important parts of that will be the distribution at EV, PP, and SH. That said, I agree with dawgbone below that Hossa, and not Hemsky, is the exception in this area. There are a couple of other PK’ers on the list, but most of these players don’t get a sniff on the PK.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 3, 2010 3:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

Your dislike of Hemsky and his game is noted Bruce.

However, do you think that any of the people criticizing Hemsky for not scoring enough are sussing out the ice time?

Further, as has been pointed out below, Hossa is the exception, not the rule. Alfredsson is another. However, the rest of the list isn’t populated by penalty killing demons.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Oct 4, 2010 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t dislike Hemsky. I do think his game is limited compared to some superstars. And as I stated above, I don’t think uncontexted points per 60 means a whole heck of a lot, and is bound to favour a guy who has no PK duty and gets a shitton of PP time (esp. if he’s productive there, which Hemsky is).

Hossa is the exception, not the rule. Alfredsson is another. However,the rest of the list isn’t populated by penalty killing demons

A few more names than two jump off the list at me. Let’s check them out.

PK minutes since the lockout:

Daniel Alfrredsson 877
Marian Hossa 724
Martin St.Louis 686
Simon Gagne 605
Jarome Iginla 383
Patrik Elias 348
Ales Hemsky 55

That’s a few exceptions. All of them will have taken a hit in their Points/60 due to their PK duties, so it’s not a fair way to compare them, that’s all I’m saying. Other than those guys, I’d take Hemsky ahead of most of the ones below him on the above list.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 5, 2010 12:28 AM MDT up reply actions  

Hemsky’s biggest problem is that he hasn’t been able to lift a dismal franchise out of sucking. Neither could any of the others on the list probably though.

by book!e on Oct 3, 2010 10:49 AM MDT reply actions  

no one player can ever do that. The blame lies entirely on the management.
The problem is that he leaves the fans wanting more. There always has been a huge difference between Hemsky’s skill level and that of the rest of the team.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Oct 3, 2010 10:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

I’m in agreement that this team needs better management. We could have Crosby and Ovechkin and the team would still bomb. Putting the blame solely on ONE player never is the answer. Hemsky is a solid player and I hope that once the lines have been solidified, he will be able to produce the numbers he is capable of.

I am not saying that the team will win the cup, but I am optimistic we will end up in the top 20 this year.

No one can be unhappy when they're wearing a poncho

by Nora.Velocity87 on Oct 3, 2010 11:16 AM MDT reply actions  

Mmmm. Just what I needed, a bit of Ales Hemsky’s ass to start my morning.

by Benjamin Massey on Oct 3, 2010 12:23 PM MDT reply actions  

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