Marginal Cap Efficiency - Rolling Averages
by Derek Zona on Oct 13, 2010 6:30 AM MDT
in Analysis
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PrintI received an e-mail in response to my column on Darryl Sutter and Marginal Cap Efficiency asking if I could break the numbers out in a rolling average. The reasoning, my e-mailer said, was so that we could see improvement or worsening per team over time. I thought it was a good idea as well. Management teams change, rebuilds take effect, and players grow up and grow old. Is Nashville always dominant or was that mostly due to the seasons directly following the lockout? Is Detroit efficient every year? Were the teams in the bottom five ever efficient or is just failure and misery all around? How much of an impact does the rising cap have on this number?
After the jump I look at Marginal Cap Efficiency in two-year segments since the lockout.
The table below shows Marginal Cap Efficiency in two-year rolling segments. Red cells indicate below NHL average efficiency.
*Table is sortable by column, click the header row to sort.
| 05-07 | 06-08 | 07-09 | 08-10 | |
| WSH | 2.71 | 2.28 | 2.04 | 2.11 |
| NJD | 2.41 | 2.13 | 2.25 | 2.10 |
| PHX | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 2.09 |
| SJS | 2.96 | 2.62 | 2.38 | 2.05 |
| VAN | 2.40 | 2.07 | 1.93 | 1.94 |
| CHI | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.75 | 1.91 |
| NSH | 3.52 | 2.89 | 1.96 | 1.88 |
| LAK | 1.98 | 1.45 | 1.56 | 1.87 |
| DET | 2.94 | 2.53 | 2.21 | 1.87 |
| BOS | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.86 | 1.78 |
| STL | 2.05 | 1.79 | 1.57 | 1.76 |
| BUF | 3.34 | 2.30 | 1.84 | 1.75 |
| PIT | 2.55 | 2.74 | 1.99 | 1.72 |
| NHL AVG | 2.47 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.68 |
| CBJ | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.84 | 1.67 |
| ATL | 2.24 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 1.65 |
| DAL | 2.88 | 2.22 | 1.69 | 1.61 |
| CGY | 2.59 | 2.06 | 1.81 | 1.61 |
| PHI | 1.79 | 1.47 | 1.79 | 1.59 |
| CAR | 3.05 | 2.03 | 1.87 | 1.59 |
| ANA | 2.94 | 2.28 | 1.72 | 1.56 |
| COL | 2.32 | 2.06 | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| NYR | 2.67 | 2.02 | 1.71 | 1.52 |
| OTT | 2.95 | 2.21 | 1.67 | 1.51 |
| MTL | 2.37 | 2.17 | 1.87 | 1.50 |
| NYI | 2.24 | 2.04 | 1.37 | 1.49 |
| FLA | 2.78 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.47 |
| MIN | 3.02 | 2.27 | 1.77 | 1.45 |
| TOR | 2.22 | 1.79 | 1.56 | 1.33 |
| TBL | 2.29 | 1.83 | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| EDM | 2.18 | 1.65 | 1.57 | 1.16 |
- Six teams haven't slipped below the league average yet - Buffalo, Detroit, Nashville, Pittsburgh, San Jose, and Washington. We can safely say that the Sabres, Red Wings, Predators, Penguins, Sharks and Captials management teams are in the top 25% of the league.
- Five teams have yet to move above the league average - Atlanta, Edmonton, Long Island, Tampa, and Toronto. The Thrashers, Maple Leafs and Lightning have all changed management personnel in the last two seasons, while the Islanders and Oilers are moving forward with the status quo.
- Calgary, New Jersey, and Vancouver ranked above average in three of the four measured periods.
- Chicago, Columbus, Colorado, Florida, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis have all ranked below average in three of the four measured periods.
- Calling Darryl Sutter average is perfectly in line with his results. The Flames were one slot above average from 06-08, two slots above average 07-09 and three slots below average from 08-10.
- The Blackhawks MCE number would be obscene if not for Cristobal Huet and Brian Campbell's contracts last season. Dropping Huet's contract alone would've made Chicago a top three team from 08-10.
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I’m kind of surprised to see any seasons where the Rangers are out of the red in this chart.
Bettman's Nightmare: We Give it To You Once-a-Week...like, hockey stuff once-a-week, I mean.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
by Bettman's Nightmare on Oct 13, 2010 9:18 AM MDT reply actions
I’m surprised how sharply cap efficiency declined from 05-07 to 08-10. Pretty much every team (including the well-managed ones) is getting significantly less bang for their buck in each subsequent season. Is this simply a result of salary inflation where the cost of a player has risen faster than that player’s on-ice value? Are GMs over-estimating how much salary caps will rise, and if so, do you think we’ll see any sort of equilibrium in the future (i.e., when GMs have figured out how to operate with the salary cap)? Or do I just not understand marginal cap efficiency?
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 9:38 AM MDT reply actions
Phoenix, Chicago, Boston and LA are the obvious exceptions, but that’s still not too good.
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 9:50 AM MDT up reply actions
The general decline is a function of the way Derek is measuring cap efficiency. The number he’s using is “standings points per million dollars spent”. With the cap rising, the amount of money spent is increasing across the league, but there aren’t any more points available. Thus “cap efficiency” decreases across the league. For example, a team that spent to the cap in 2007-08 ($50.3M) and managed 90 points would have a MCE of 1.79, whereas a team that spent to the cap this season ($59.4M) and managed 90 points would have a MCE of 1.52.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 13, 2010 10:17 AM MDT up reply actions
Scott is correct and that’s why my emailer wanted to see a rolling average rather than a five year average. As the cap rises, MCE will come down, but the metric still works in comparing individual management groups to each other.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But I thought MCE is a measure of the dollars spent above the league minimum. Isn’t the league minimum rising along with the salary cap?
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions
To quote your last article on MCE:
Marginal cap efficiency tracks the number of points per million dollars in salary cap spent over the league minimum salary
I can’t find a more definitive source than Wikipedia (actually, I’m busily downloading the CBA and Adobe acrobat, since I just replaced my computer), but according to Wikipedia the league minimum has to be 16 million dollars less than the salary cap. If this is correct, the rise in salary cap should have no impact on MCE.
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 11:15 AM MDT up reply actions
This isn’t the salary floor, rather it’s the league minimum salary, or $500,000 * number of roster players.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ah, now this makes more sense. Christ, I’m an idiot.
However, I think measuring dollars spent above the salary floor might still be interesting. That would remove the artifact of the rising salary cap. Not that I expect that would tell you anything different when making comparisons among teams within one year, but it would make comparisons between years a lot easier.
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
If you want to compare from year to year, I’d suggest a percentage of league average. Nashville, for instance, would look like this in the various segments:
2005-2007 – 143%
2006-2008 – 141%
2007-2009 – 110%
2008-2010 – 112%
So the Predators’ overall number was in fact being boosted by their early years. Those first two segments happen to be the two best numbers by any team in any year. That said, even after slowing down, they’ve stayed well above average since then.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 13, 2010 11:51 AM MDT up reply actions
I made the exact same mistake and was really confused for a couple of minutes. It was all clearly explained and I just can’t read.
Everyone knows rock attained perfection in 1974. It's a scientific fact.
This makes me feel a bit better. I was really excited at first because I thought I had noticed something really cool, but nope.
by Stephen's Beaven on Oct 13, 2010 6:22 PM MDT up reply actions
So NHL GMs are getting stupider and stupider when it comes to budgeting?
This is a shame. I am particularly sad to see the Senators’ number declining, but I can’t say I’m surprised.
by Peter Raaymakers on Oct 13, 2010 11:08 AM MDT reply actions
No, the number of points able to be attained is currently fixed (until Bettman comes up with a four point game), and the cap keeps going up. So as the cap goes up the league MCE will come down, but it remains useful to compare on a yearly basis against other teams in the league.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
(until Bettman comes up with a four point game)
Please don’t tempt him.
Lighthouse Hockey: You say that like Streit and Okposo and Schremp and Tavares and Wisniewski were important.
I wish every game was a three-pointer like in international play.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
MCE
Does this take into account a team like the Flyers or doesn’t get high draft picks because they’re always good so they don’t have those young players that don’t cost much but provide a lot of bang (such as a young Crosby, Malkin, or Ovechkin getting 100 points on a rookie contract) but instead have vets earning about what they should? I just noticed that the only year Philly was over average is when they were terrible and sold off all their assets to rebuild around their young guys. Not that the Flyers have a good GM (they don’t) but it’s not like the Pens have made any signings that are impressive or have had a second round pick ever come through. Same to Washington…Backstrom, Semin, Ovie, Green et al are coming off of their rookie contracts and I would expect these numbers to change for us in the future.
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