Penalty Kill Save Percentage Update
About a month ago I looked at those goalies whose penalty kill save percentage was either very good or very bad. Not much time has passed since then, which is actually one of the reasons I decided to do an update now. In even a very small number of trials it's easy to see the tendency of most goalies who are sitting at the extremes (I looked at goalies who had a save percentage above .900 or below .840 and had faced at least sixty shots). After the jump we'll look at what how our top and bottom groups have done.
As a reminder, the average save percentage on the penalty kill is something close to .866 (thanks to Tyler Dellow for that). So all of the "goals saved above average" numbers have used .866 as average. Here are the results for the guys who were on top in December:
As you can see, everyone but Tuukka Rask has come back significantly toward the mean. In fact, as we can see by the change in the "goals saved above average" columns several of the goalies who were at the very top of the charts in December several of the goalies have been below average (in a very small sample size) in the last month including Pavelec, Nabokov, Deslauriers and Roloson. Poor Jeff Deslauriers has gone from .917 to pretty close to league average which means he's been very much below league average over the last month.
Now let's take a look at the goalies who were at the bottom of the charts:
Similarly, most of the goltenders here have improved on their number from our last look. Of the four goalies that have improved three of them have been above average with Hiller and Vokoun improving significantly. Of the others Theodore has been pretty consistent, Ray Emery hasn't played and the two who have regressed have been extremely bad. Vesa Toskala's play is just incredible. On 97 penalty kill shots he has cost the Leafs 13 goals against average.
So who are the goalies topping the charts today that may end up coming back toward the mean? Let's take a look at the goalies above .900 with at least 100 shots:
The only guy on the list really out of line is Jaroslav Halak. He's certainly played well but that .921 number probably isn't going to hold up. Nonetheless, it's good timing for Halak to have a hot streak, both for him (he'll get more starts) and potentially for the Canadiens who have reportedly been shopping Halak around the league. That's not to say Halak is a poor goaltender. Unlike Ondrej Pavelec whose EV save percentage is down at .900, Halak has been quite good in all situations. His EV save percentage is well up the list at .931.
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Good stuff, Scott. Regression to the mean is certainly to be expected; even guys who continue to perform above (or below) average might be expected to be not as much above or below as when they initially established their status as outliers. Given the sample size of shots it’s no more surprising than a guy having a 5-8 game run with a Sv% of .960 or .825 returning to something closer to normal in subsequent games.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Exactly. Especially when a goaltender has only played very few games, a low or high number on the PK can really mask what’s going on in the larger EV sample if one just looks at the overall save percentage number. So a guy like Pavelec looks like he could be a real solution for the Thrashers for a while and, if they believe it, it can hurt them in the long run.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 9, 2010 8:12 PM PST up reply actions
This is true, but, much like Halak, Rask has a very good EV save percentage as well (.934) so even if/when his PK number goes down, it shouldn’t drop him from “pretty decent” to “awful.” Right now Rask’s overall number is .933 so I think most people are looking for a correction without even looking at the situational stuff.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 10, 2010 7:12 AM PST up reply actions
The Canadiens are going to end up using Halak’s hot streak to either send away price or rob some other GM in a trade.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The best part for the Canadiens is that both of the goalies are quality. I think it would be pretty difficult to say who the better bet is at this stage but, for the time being, both are good and both are cheap (though both are also RFA’s at the end of the year). They may as well just hold on to both guys unless they can get at least a 1st rd pick or equivalent in a trade.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 10, 2010 3:18 PM PST up reply actions
They are both RFAs are going to get decent-sized deals. You know how GM’s are about goaltenders.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
They could both get decent deals but I’m not sure how big to be honest. If at the end of the year you’ve made a decision on which player you want to keep you sign the one and tell the other to find a deal on the RFA market and get at the very least a 2nd round pick back (otherwise you just match the offer). That compensation schedule is why I think they’ll need a rather strong offer in order to justify dealing one of them in a trade.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 10, 2010 6:12 PM PST up reply actions

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