More On J.F. Jacques
I posted an article yesterday about Jean-Francois Jacques and his effect on Shawn Horcoff and Patrick O'Sullivan. The final conclusion was that Jacques' game is not suited to NHL play at this point. He's getting overwhelmed and he's dragging his teammates down with him. There weren't many comments on the article, but I did get a handful of emails, all in defense of Jacques' play. Most of them were of the "stats don't tell the whole story" mindset, Only one particular reader that e-mailed me made a thought-out argument against the numbers. He asked if Jacques was really playing that poorly because he really likes what Jacques brings to the team with his physical play. "No other Oilers make the other team look over their shoulder and you can't quantify that," he wrote. His viewpoint is that the big hits create fear in the opponent and the effects of those hits change the entire game. That may be true, but the rest of Jacques' game is so thoroughly lacking, that it's JFJ that should be looking over his shoulder -- to see if his pink slip is coming. If opponents were afraid of Jacques, or perhaps changing their game because of Jacques, then their on-ice performance should slip and it would show in the numbers. That's not the case. In fact, it's the opposite in an extreme manner.
I used Vic Ferrari's timeonice tool (an excellent resource to explore the impact of shot data on the game) to find Jacques' effect on every single player on the roster this year. The table below shows each player and their even strength shots ratio without Jacques compared to their even strength ratio with Jacques. At the right is their even strength GF-GA on without and with Jacques. The data leaves little to the imagination concerning Jacques' on-ice effectiveness or lack thereof -- he's not getting it done, and he's bringing his linemates down a level or two.
Note: I've left Cogliano, Potulny, Moreau, Penner, Stone and Comrie off of the list as Jacques has spent little to no time on the ice with that group.
Every single player on the team gets outshot while on the ice with Jacques. Players that normally outshoot their opponents (Horcoff, Hemsky, Gagner, Souray, Visnovsky) see their ratios fall off, sometimes to a drastic measure, while on the ice with Jacques. Players that are already being outshot (Stortini, Staios, Grebeshkov, Chorney) see their numbers plummet to downright misery when on the ice with Jacques.
Jacques is 24 year old now and healthy for the first time in years. Perhaps his development has been stunted so badly that he's going to need a year or two more to "get it". But the guy has 8 points in 94 games and by the above chart and other advanced stats is the worst player on the team, both traditional stats and advanced stats agree.
He should be in Springfield right now learning the game again. I'm sure that the Oilers don't want to waive him because they feel that someone will scoop him up and give him another chance. They're probably right. He's a big guy with great feet -- he'll keep getting chances until he's 30. However, given the numbers that Jacques is leaving behind, the Oilers should be looking for a replacement-level player to replace Jacques this summer. We can clearly "see what we have" and it's time to get rid of it.
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I’m very sympathetic to the writer who talks about JFJ’s physical play having an impact on the game. I value physical play myself and have long been complaining that the team needs more of it. Hell, I’ve heard Pat Quinn talking about the same thing w.r.t. this particular player, and I know he values it too.
Jacques is a “chaos player” which is not all a bad thing. Unfortunately with this particular player it is mostly a bad thing, as the Oilers are getting owned when he’s out there almost regardless of teammates or opposition. The numbers confirm he brings almost nothing offensively, and by eye he is the worst defensive player this team has seen in a number of years. Appears to have no clue as to defensive positioning.
It’s certainly not for want of opportunity … JFJ started the year on the first line with Hemsky and Horcoff, and got an extended and entirely unwarranted stint with Horcoff and O’Sullivan, a unit that was bleeding GA at the rate of one per game. Now he’s finally played his way down to the Black Aces, and while the Oilers do miss that physical element I don’t think they miss the rest of the package even a tiny bit.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 8, 2010 10:23 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Raffi Torres was a good chaos player.
Jean-Francois Jacques is an awful chaos player.
There’s a ceiling to how much a chaos player can achieve, but as we’re seeing there’s not much of a basement to how much they can fail.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 8, 2010 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post Derek. I largely agree with your conclusions but I’m not ready to say that he couldn’t be useful. The coaching staff has been abominable in how they’ve used him this year. His QC is third among Oiler forwards despite his QT being dead last irrelevent (the “dead last” is coming from playing a lot with Horcoff who’s rated very poorly in the QC/QT rankings; the fact that it’s based on +/- makes it a bit wonky sometimes). This probably goes some of the way in explaining his bad relative Corsi numbers, at least with the defenders. If Jacques is pretty consistently taking top opponents – a role he’s completely unable to adequately fill – while other players are taking on lesser lights it seems pretty clear that the defenders should be doing much better without Jacques out there than with him. Looking at the forwards he’s played a lot with so far this year you don’t see too many plugs and fourth liners. The other issue in the forward comparisons is who is replacing him. For all of them except Stortini they usually have Penner when they don’t have Jacques. That’s a pretty difficult comparison to live with even for a more-than-adequate fourth liner (not saying that Jacques is that, just that an adequate fourth liner would look awful compared to Penner). If we agree that Penner can drive results, Jacques is in tough to look anything but terrible. Basically, I think we know he’s useless against difficult opponents (gee, really?). I don’t think we can know for sure that he’s totally useless. He might actually be okay as a 4th liner, though the Stortini comparison is surely disconcerting. Still, I hope they try him in a fourth line role going forward to see if that physical element can be effective in (a) fewer and (b) sheltered minutes. It would be interesting to see him get several games with Stortini and Cogliano and then compare their results with him to their results with Moreau. I think Jacques would still look bad (though he may not as, in the past, he’s been able to put up good results in the AHL/preseason which is a level just below NHL caliber and a lot of fourth lines may well be the kind of players he can kick around) but it would be a fun experiment to see how good/bad Moreau is.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 8, 2010 10:35 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Stortini comp is indeed disconcerting. Zack’s better than that.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 8, 2010 12:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This probably goes some of the way in explaining his bad relative Corsi numbers, at least with the defenders
But he’s not taking the toughs with Gagner, Brule or Stortini and though the sample size is limited, he’s dragging them waaaay down.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jan 8, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To me it’s only his time with Stortini that is particularly worrying since that’s the only time he’s not being replaced almost exclusively by Penner. I still don’t think he’s good but given we’ve got him around anyway, we may as well see if he can play on a fourth line that takes on largely other junk.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 8, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Would Gagner’s numbers away from Penner be instructive?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jan 8, 2010 5:00 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
As in, Gagner’s numbers away from both Penner and Jacques? I don’t know how much ice time you’d expect to have left over but if it’s significant I think that would probably give us a better look since Jacques would be compared to the guys that he’s actually fighting for ice time.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 8, 2010 11:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Gagner with Penner: .512 (157-156), +7
Gagner w/o Penner or Jacques: .546 (111-87), -4
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Jan 9, 2010 8:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Gagner without Penner/Jacques line is impressive with respect to Gagner and hilariously awful with respect to Jacques. I’m quite surprised that Gagner has done better away from Penner despite the fact that when Gagner and Penner are together they’re probably getting keyed on as the top Oilers line.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 9, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn’t Penner be getting keyed over Gagner, making it slightly easier on Gagner being away from Penner?
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by Doogie2K on Jan 10, 2010 8:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Possibly (if 89-83 are on one line and 27-10 are on the other I think there’s a good chance 89-83 are getting the toughs from the opposing coach), but presumably Gagner and Jacques together aren’t getting the tougher minutes either. I’m impressed with 89 because he seems to do pretty well on his own, even if it is against lessers. He can’t carry Jacques but if he’s away from 27 and 10 and performing well that’s a very good sign for him. That he does so poorly with Jacques – in what I assume are pretty similar minutes in terms of difficulty – is a big negative for J.F. IMO.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 10, 2010 8:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I too think JFJ will be a good 4th liner. Banging bodies around is his thing
by SumOil on Jan 8, 2010 10:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I condone Quinn’s continued use of Jacques. Actually, I think he should get more ice time…….
by Kent Wilson on Jan 8, 2010 1:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Me too
Now that I have gone through rage, grief etc. and have entered into acceptance that yes, we’re fucked, and the only way to fuck ourselves worse is to start winning again, my new Favourite Players™ are Strudwick, JFJ and JDDDD.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 8, 2010 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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