Hitchcock Watch in Full Swing
by Derek Zona on Jan 7, 2010 11:30 AM PST
in News
16 comments
The Blue Jackets are struggling something fierce, and it can be hung on goaltending. At even strength, Steve Mason's .898 and Mathieu Garon's .908 save percentages are torpedoing the Blue Jackets' season. Ken Hitchcock knows it, and tried to tell Scott Howson and the rest of the world by going public with a "win and you're in" goaltending policy. Hitchcock is a good coach, but without overwhelming talent, a team isn't going to overcome a goaltending deficit like they have in Columbus. Hitchcock was blamed by the fanbase for alienating Nikolai Zherdev and Nikita Filatov, however, Zherdev was also alienated by John Tortorella and Nikita Filatov came close to throwing hands with Russian coach Vladimir Plyushchev.
Blue Jackets vs Oilers coverage
That's neither here nor there. Apparently, the writing is on the wall for Hitchcock as even the Columbus papers have turned on Hitchcock. However, unless a new coach brings in a new goaltender, the Jackets have little chance of turning things around.
The ramifications could be far-reaching. It was just two months ago that the news broke that the Blue Jackets are near-broke. There has been little success for this franchise (just two home playoff games in nine years) and attendance is flagging. The Blue Jackets draw only a 1.43 share in the television ratings, which sadly is ninth out of twenty-four U.S.-based teams in the NHL. As Mirtle reported:
Even if the Blue Jackets sold another 2,500 tickets a game and went on a run to the second round of the playoffs, they would still be in the red.
A fourteenth place finish in the Western Conference this year is not going to help with attendance, ratings or playoff revenues, regardless of the problems with market conditions.
Columbus versus Edmonton, 14 vs. 15, the battle of the cellar dwellers, something's got to give, someone's got to win.
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Sounds to me like the Blue Jackets could use a taste of the Jeff Deslauriers Experience. Maybe we can get back that Brassard kid.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 7, 2010 11:31 AM PST reply actions
Scottt Howson is many things, but he is not stupid.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 7, 2010 11:56 AM PST up reply actions
Quick look at Philly, since they’ve actually got a decent number of games to compare before and after.
October 2 – November 18: 12-5-1
November 20 – December 3: 1-6-0
= COACHING CHANGE =
December 5 – 21: 2-7-1
December 21 – January 6: 5-1-1
So for those keeping score at home, that’s 13-11-1 under Stevens and 7-8-1 under Laviolette. During their month-long slump (Nov. 20 – Dec. 21), they went 3-13-1; outside that, they’ve been 17-6-2. There seems to be very little to distinguish the teams under the two coaches, other than the fact that the Good Flyers under Stevens had a healthy Ray Emery. (Right around the time he got hurt is when it went in the shitter.)
I continue to think this was a pointless move by Paul Holmgren, but hey, I bet sometime in February or March some reporter or another will be sucking off Laviolette for “turning the team around” once they’re back in the playoff pack.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Seconded.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Jan 7, 2010 4:20 PM PST up reply actions
And check it out, Philly beat the Pens last night. Lavi’s system is taking hold!
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Further to this point, stats for the two goalies currently in Philly since their arrival:
Leighton: 6-0-1, 2.28, .927
Boucher: 4-11-1, 2.84, .896
Also relevant: Simon Gagner returned December 19 and has posted four goals and six assists in ten games since.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Obviously, the Oilers should sign Leighton to a 4 year deal.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh, and the Cleveland Barons logo would be better used for the Sharks, all things considered. ;)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
… or the Stars
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"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 7, 2010 2:04 PM PST up reply actions
Flaws in the article
a) Can’t entirely blame the goal-tending. The Jackets recently went through a stretch of about 7 games where they scored 1 goal or less.
b) Check league attendance numbers year to date. The Jackets are outdrawing the Devils, Predators and Avalance (all strong play-off caliber teams). The Jackets are also out-drawing Anaheim that is a much bigger market than Columbus.
c) TV ratings for Jackets games on FoxSports OH for October were up 50% from the same period of time last year. Also, ratings in Cincinnati and Cleveland increasing for Jackets games. Overall, being in the top-10 of US based teams in terms of TV ratings is ’sad?
d) The money issue for the Jackets mainly has to do with the lease agreement. Nationwide Arena is just one of two privately owned professional sports venues. The Jackets do not get nearly the amount of revenue from non-hockey events as all the other NHL teams do and get zero public assistance. An adjustment will likely be made.
Granted, the team is struggling, but the Jackets are the youngest team in the league. This article does a poor job presenting accurate facts.
Can’t entirely blame the goal-tending.
Columbus has 103 GA at ES. If they could even get average ES goaltending, they’d have 83 GA. A 20 goal difference is worth six points in the standings, enough to get them into 10th place in the conference, 6 behind 8th place.
c) TV ratings for Jackets games on FoxSports OH for October were up 50% from the same period of time last year. Also, ratings in Cincinnati and Cleveland increasing for Jackets games
They get an average of 13,000 households per game. It’s not good.
Overall, being in the top-10 of US based teams in terms of TV ratings is ’sad?
No, if you re-read, it’s sad that a 1.43 rating is a top 10 market.
d) The money issue for the Jackets mainly has to do with the lease agreement. Nationwide Arena is just one of two privately owned professional sports venues. The Jackets do not get nearly the amount of revenue from non-hockey events as all the other NHL teams do and get zero public assistance. An adjustment will likely be made.
If you read the linked article, even if the lease were free, the Jackets wouldn’t be profitable.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
With respect to the goaltending, it’s hurt them, no question, but comparing both EV shooting and save percentage to what they got a year ago the dropoff in EV shooting percentage has actually hurt them more.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 8, 2010 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
You do make a valid point with the goal-tending, but that hasn’t been the only soft spot on the team.
Your statement that ‘even if the lease were free, the Jackets wouldn’t be profitable’ is a complete fabrication. The Jackets made money every year before the lock-out. Don’t believe me, go to this web-site:
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2009/31/hockey-values-09_Columbus-Blue-Jackets_316038.html
Look at the Forbes list even closer and you’ll find out that even a Stanley Cup hopeful like the Washington Capitals that sells out every game in a big metro market is losing money. Please explain that one in your article.
You might laugh that the Jackets ratings avg 13k households per game, but look further at the Forbes ratings and realize that Columbus is one of the least populated cities in the entire NHL. For a team being in the top third of US tv ratings (and growing) for only being in the league for 9 yrs, plus to never have won a playoff game is quite impressive. Columbus does not have decades of tradition like the Original Six or even the Canadian teams yet has consistently maintained a season ticket base of 10k fans. Besides, I wouldn’t rip on Columbus too much. Right now the youngest team in the league is going through some growing pains, but they will be a strong force over the next 5+ years.
If I may chime in here, I think you’ve touched on one of the big problems with the current CBA. A lot of teams that cannot afford to spend are being forced to spend by the salary range. The Blue Jackets aren’t spending to the cap now but they’re probably going to end up spending between 48M and 50M on the team this season. I think the Jackets payroll was at about 34M in the year before the lockout. So in four seasons their payroll has increased over 40%. Have their revenues kept pace? I doubt it. The league really needs to institute more revenue sharing if they want to keep thirty teams in the league (or find a way to reduce the percentage of league revenues that goes to the players, but good luck with that) so that teams like the Blue Jackets who are in a good hockey market (IMO) can stick around.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 9, 2010 9:16 AM PST up reply actions
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