When it comes to Horcoff and O'Sullivan, breaking up should be easy to do.
by Derek Zona on Jan 7, 2010 8:15 AM MST
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I was discussing Patrick O'Sullivan with a Blueshirts fan friend of mine yesterday when the subject turned to on-ice save and shooting percentages. I immediately leapt to the conclusion that O'Sullivan would be lagging in both categories, as his performance early in the year was poor. So I began digging into the numbers using Vic's always amazing timeonice tool. I was sure that it was going to tell me that O'Sullivan was poor, and that J.F. Jacques was an anchor. What I found is that Shawn Horcoff is in the midst of a brutal stretch of luck, and that luck combined with J.F. Jacques' unique ability to get outshot 3-2 consistently makes Horcoff's numbers look far, far worse than they should be. But I also found that O'Sullivan's numbers aren't as bad as everyone thinks, he's just being hauled down by Horcoff's bad luck and J.F. Jacques. Below the break, I take a more detailed look at the numbers.
The chart below shows the even strength statistics for the three players mentioned above. All of these stats are on ice stats, meaning they are a sum total of the events happening for both teams while those players are on the ice. Some key numbers to keep in mind: O'Sullivan has been outscored 19 GF - 32 GA at even strength this year. He's been outshot 257-317. Horcoff has been outscored 18 GF - 32 GA at even strength this year. He's barely been outshot, 250-266. Take a look at some of the combinations:
J.F. Jacques is outshot 2-1 without Horcoff. When paired together, Horcoff is able to stop some of the bleeding as they are outshot 4-3. Without Jacques, Horcoff is actually outshooting this year at 169-154. O'Sullivan is able to do much of the same as the two are outshot at around 4-3. Away from Jacques, O'Sullivan is being outshot 5-4.5, which is impressive on this team. As a threesome, they've been outshot by slightly more, but they've been absolutely doomed by their goaltenders putting up Bantams replacement goalie-like .780 save percentage. Stop a puck already, won't ya?
Look at the numbers for Horcoff and O'Sullivan without Jacques. They manage to outshoot, 55-52, but are outscored 1 GF - 7 GA. They are brutalized by a .865 save percentage behind them and an abysmally poor 1.8% shooting percentage.
Turn your attention to the bottom two rows. O'Sullivan without Horcoff and Horcoff without O'Sullivan. Horcoff is close to even in shots, and goal differential. O'Sullivan is even in goal differential, but he's getting outshot 4-3. More noticeable is that Horcoff's even strength save percentage is .907, well-ahead of previously mentioned percentages. Pull them apart and the bad luck doesn't happen.
Since Dustin Penner is the only reliable forward on the team, I also looked at Horcoff and O'Sullivan with Penner to see if Penner has had an effect on their stat lines. Penner has outscored 35 GF - 24 GA at even strength this year and has outshot 319-294. He's done that with an even strength shooting percentage of 11.0% and a save percentage of .912. O'Sullivan and Penner have been outshot 32-45, but have some bounces as they've outscored 5 GF - 3 GA with a 13.9% shooting percentage and a .938 save percentage. Horcoff's bad luck affects even Penner. They've outshot their opponents 71-51, but have been outscored 7 GF - 8 GA. They've seen a relatively normal 9.0% shooting percentage, but have been backstopped by a .864 save percentage. The Penner effect is slightly more evident with O'Sullivan, but not enough to say that he's playing poorly overall and being dragged around by Penner.
For Horcoff this year, it's come down to some freakishly bad goaltending while he's on the ice with Patrick O'Sullivan and having to make up for Jacques being on his line. I looked at Jacques recently and found that he wants in all areas of hockey metrics and shouldn't be in the top twelve, maybe even the NHL. I'm going to disagree with my colleague, Bruce, and say that take away the bad juju and J.F. Jacques and O'Sullivan isn't half bad. Going forward, unless the Oilers are ready to sacrifice a chicken, or get Jobu a bottle of his own rum, Pat Quinn should keep Horcoff and O'Sullivan far, far away from each other.
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1) It seems that some of the non-Jacques Horcoff numbers would be inflated by the early days of Two-Arm Shawn Horcoff and Horpensky; we’re not getting a great view of Horcoff in 2010 if we say that, when surrounded by superior players he can no longer be surrounded by and healthier than he is now, he outshot.
2) At what point does “bad puck luck” become a symptom rather than an excuse? For how many seasons has Horcoff been the patron saint of bad puck luck? Two? Three?
I think with Horcoff, we saw his numbers drop the same time we saw his role on the team change. When Stoll and Reasoner were on the team, they were used a lot in defensive situations, which allowed Horcoff to play a more offensive role (though he was still matched up with the other team’s best). With the departure of Reasoner and Stoll, we’ve seen Horcoff on the ice virtually every time the puck is starting in our end, being called upon to kill every 5-on-3, and was the go to guy 4-on-5 as well. No other 1st line center in the league was/is used in such a way on their team, but not only has Horcoff been our defacto defensive specialist (the guy set up to fail), but his contract and linemates mean he’s supposed to be our offensive leader as well.
Last year, though, he had shit luck. The year before that he had great luck. That’s just how it works. He’s a career ~13% shooter, and he’s been pretty consistant with that number. Last year, and the year after the cup run, he was shooting at 9 and a half. The year in between, he was at 18%. I think a lot of that can be contributed to getting the bounces one year, and not getting them the others. This year, his personal numbers are on pace, but he’s been victimized by bad goaltending and low team shooting numbers.
Thank you. I’ve been saying this stuff all year, and I’m glad the numbers agree.
I’ve supported Jacques from day 1, and held out hope for him even when he was no more than an afterthought the last few years, but it’s pretty clear that he’s not an NHL player. Some players seem to make their linemates better, but Jacques has the unique ability to make his worse. It was clear at the start of the year with 22-10-83, and then later with 22-10-19. 22-10-23 had some short term sucess if I recall, but it didn’t last (and I’m sure the underlying numbers weren’t good then either if I were to check).
Unfortunately, people see Jacques run through a guy once or twice a game and think he’s the key to success.
I’m a bit confused at the conclusion. If you’re arguing that the reason O’Sullivan and Horcoff have bad numbers is mostly luck, but that otherwise they’ve been doing pretty well, why would you separate them?
The “Seperate them” argument is made tongue-in-cheek, and I thought that was pretty clear with the “Major League”-inspired jokes.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sorry dude. I misunderstood largely from not reading closely enough and partly from having never seen Major League.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 7, 2010 10:50 AM MST up reply actions
The jokes were juuuuuuuuust a bit outside your frame of reference.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 7, 2010 11:04 AM MST up reply actions
The serious conclusion was get Jacques away from the team. The follow up was a little joke. Sorry.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
To be honest I think it’s the title that got me going in the wrong direction. That aside, the conclusion of getting Jacques away from the team is a good one.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 7, 2010 12:04 PM MST up reply actions
A little early to be giving up on JFJ, don’t you think? In another 4 years he could be the next Brad Winchester.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 7, 2010 12:26 PM MST up reply actions
Except Brad Winchester had that time he picked up the squid in Detroit and scored a goal in the playoffs and I don’t think Jean-Francois Jacques will have the opportunity to do either of those things.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 7, 2010 12:33 PM MST up reply actions
Also, Winchester’s nickname was “the Rifle”, which is far better than Jacques’s old nickname of “Crazy Train” or his new nickname of “This Guy Is So Shitty I Want to Punch Myself in the Beanbag”.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 7, 2010 12:34 PM MST up reply actions
1) It seems that some of the non-Jacques Horcoff numbers would be inflated by the early days of Two-Arm Shawn Horcoff and Horpensky
Except … the earliest days of Two-Arm Shawn Horcoff were with Hemsky and Jacques to start the season. The “Horjacquesky” line was crappy despite the presence of two of the three best forwards on the team. The drop-off from Penner to Jacques was like that 20-km cliff on the Uranian moon Miranda.
From Horcoff’s perspective the drop-off from Hemsky to O’Sullivan wasn’t quite that steep, but once he was saddled with both POS and JFJ on his flanks along with continuing tough minutes, there was more than puck luck involved as the Oilers lack of quality depth was badly exposed. It was one of those trios we used to call a “helicopter line” (no wings), and with Horc’s shoulder issues the rotors were none too stable either.
My eyes agree with the stats which say unequivocally that JFJ is not an NHL-calibre player. I wish it were otherwise, cuz the big guy brings some stuff we need — size, physical play, intensity — but the price is much too, uh, steep. At very best he’s a fourth liner.
As for POS, I just replied to Ben in the last PGT that he has shown more positives in the last 6 games than in the previous 60. He’s got his feet, his hands, and most importantly his head going at a faster rate, and is really showing some chops in the transition game. Still lots of warts, but finally some positives. Including, finally, some positive body language, like he’s having a little fun out there and really does want to score rather than just looking like a whipped puppy as yet another thing goes wrong on his watch.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Horjacquesky was together for 10 games. They outscored 4-3, but were outshot 31-39.
Hemsky away from Jacques outscored 12-5 and outshot 112-103. Jacques was pulling down an established outshooter in Hemsky…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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