Oilers v. Coyotes - Philippians 2:12-18
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 3:21 PM MST
in Game-Day Threads
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PrintPhoenix Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers, Jan 5, 2010 7:00 PM MST
Therefore, my dear Edmontonians, as you have always attended games - not only during winning seasons, but also during losing seasons - continue to attend the games with fear and trembling, for it is God who will decide if Edmonton remains worthy as the location for his chosen team. Yes, you must continue to cheer the team on and spend your money without complaint or argument so that God will see you as pure and blameless through all of the team's struggles. Being a businessman myself, I know that this is a crooked and depraved generation with many looking out for their own interests instead of the common good. But you Edmonotonians will shine like the stars in the sky as you hold open your wallets so that on the coming day of God's judgment I will know that I did not buy this team without reason. In fact, I was glad to purchase this team for the good of Edmonton and am happy to rejoice with you; I can only hope that you Edmontonians will be glad to rejoice with me as we build a world-class city together.
Phoenix Coyotes (25-14-4) @ Edmonton Oilers (16-22-4)
Rexall Place, 7:00 PM MST
Television: The Juniors are on TSN
More analysis after the jump...
Visiting Team Scouting Report: The Coyotes have been one of the most surprising teams of the season. I certainly didn't expect them to have such a strong record and, if they did have a strong record, I wouldn't have expected their underlying numbers to support it. But they've done it. The team is particularly good at EV where they've outscored opponents 76-57 (+19). They're PDO number is favourable but not crazy (101.0) and they've managed to outshoot and outCorsi their opponents both overall and even moreso when the game has been close. Tyler Dellow's recent post shows that the Coyotes' improvement is coming entirely in the area of goals against where the Coyotes are on pace to improve by 60 goals over last season's performance. This difference is coming entirely at EV. Last season the Coyotes allowed over 170 EV goals against and this season they're on pace for 108. Some of the difference is save percentage. Coyote goaltenders (mostly Ilya Bryzgalov) are simply stopping more pucks this year than they did a year ago. But the improvement from .917 to .936 only accounts for about half of the difference. The other half is improved shot ratio but, interestingly, this improves on both sides of the puck. Whereas a year ago the Coyotes were outshot at EV (in 80 games, somehow two of the games didn't come through) 25.0 to 21.3 this season the Coyotes are outshooting their opponents at EV 23.0 to 20.7. In addition to flipping the ratio the Coyotes have also limited the shots at both ends of the ice.
The crazy thing is, although they've made a lot of changes from this year when compared to last year not many of them seem like impact players. In goal they added Jason LaBarbera as the backup goaltender. On defence they've been without Kurt Sauer because of injury this season, traded away Derek Morris last season and elected not to bring back Ken Klee or David Hale over the summer. Those four have been replaced by Jim Vandermeer, Adrian Aucoin, Sami Lepisto and Anders Eriksson. If anything the second group looks worse! At forward the Coyotes totally revamped. They added Lombardi, Upshall and Prucha at last year's trade deadline and brought in Vrbata, Fiddler, Lang, Korpikoski and Pyatt over the summer. They compensated for this by putting guys like Turris and Boedker in the minors and sending off some of the vets they had the year before. They also hired a new coach in Dave Tippett. Given the guys they brought in, who do we credit for this massive turnaround? It doesn't really look like luck, they weren't particularly unlucky the year before and among the guys they brought in there isn't one guy who is really considered a star let alone a superstar. Is it mostly Tippett? Were some of the kids below replacement a year ago? Are Matt Lombardi, Radim Vrbata and Robert Lang the most underrated players in the league? What's going on?
Expected Lineups:
Edmonton Oilers (16-22-4):
Penner - Gagner - Nilsson
Jacques - Horcoff - Brule
Stone - Potulny - O'Sullivan
Moreau - Cogliano - Stortini
Souray - Gilbert
Smid - Staios
Grebeshkov - Strudwick
Deslauriers
Phoenix Coyotes (25-14-4):
Upshall - Lombardi - Doan
Vrbata - Hanzal - Prucha
Pyatt - Lang - Mueller
Korpikoski - Porter - Hoggan
Michalek - Jovanovski
Yandle - Aucoin
Eriksson - Lepisto
Bryzgalov
Behind The Numbers:
- Sam Gagner needs just one point to tie Stan Weir for 51st on the Oilers' all time list. Since Gagner joined the Oilers two and a half years ago only Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky have scored more points.
- Since Ales Hemsky has knocked out of the lineup against Los Angeles, Dustin Penner has scored two points on the power play and hasn't recorded a power play point in fourteen consecutive games. The story at EV is a bit better. Before Hemsky's season-ending injury Penner was a +12 in 25 games (though Hemsky missed three of them). Since he's been out of the lineup Penner is +1 at EV in 17 games which is still pretty darn good on this team! Hilariously, this is the exact opposite of his shot results. In the first 25 games he was outshot 163-162 but had a PDO number of 107.5. In the second 17 games he's outshot his opponents 142-105 but has a PDO number of 98.0 with big downturns in both on-ice save and on-ice shooting percentages.
- Dustin Penner has taken 122 shots on the season. This compares very favourably to his previous seasons on a per game basis. So far Penner has had seasons of 2.49, 2.45 and 1.67 shots per game. This season he's on pace for 2.90. The improvement is less impressive on a per minute basis where he's already had seasons of .178, .142 and .114 shots per minute. This season he's on pace for .148. I would guess these numbers are largely dependent on how much power play time he's received in each season.
- So far in his career Sam Gagner is 8/30 in shoot-outs attempts including 0/5 this season. He must be impressive in practice though because only Patrick O'Sullivan (4/8 this year) has been used more often this year.
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A hopeful sign that Pat Quinn has been paying attention. Pisani will have 4 fewer hits and 0.6 fewer goals against.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 5, 2010 3:44 PM MST up reply actions
The upgrade in my mind from Jean-Francois Jacques to Fernando Pisani is the greatest even theoretical upgrade of all time.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 4:00 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah I saw that on the front page after I published the thread and figured it would get mentioned right away in the comments. Good for Fernando and good for the team. Now if Comrie can get healthy we’ll have both traditional rentals (in terms of contract status) ready to go for the deadline.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 4:01 PM MST up reply actions
27-10-12
19-16-67
32-89-34
18-13-46
Potulny’s happy ride is about to end.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
A second line with zero people capable of delivering or receiving an NHL pass.
THIS WILL GO SPLENDIDLY I AM SURE.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 4:01 PM MST up reply actions
Am going to the game and looking forward to seeing Fernando back in the line-up. Maybe will get a look at Bryan Pitton before the night is done. :o
More later. Enjoy the game(s), everyone!
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
I think we will win this game. We have been good against phoenix historically. Also Players should be fired up after getting their break cancelled
Bruce is going to the game, Sum is optimistic, and our second line has Ryan Potulny on it.
This thing has 15-0 loss written all over it.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 6:47 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
That “second” line is frightening. If ever there was a time to stop with the rolling…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Devereaux broke his neck in the Spengler.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Jesus Christ, really? There’s a guy who’s had shit luck with injuries, too. When he was an Oiler, he took probably the worst pro hockey injury of my lifetime when he got his eggs scrambled so bad he had a fucking seizure on the ice. As a thirteen-year-old Devereaux fan, it scared the hell out of me. Looked a lot worse than Steve Moore for sure.
Good luck, Boyd.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 7:02 PM MST via mobile up reply actions
I’m thinking a broken neck and an on-ice seizure for the same dude are some steep odds.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay. I have to admit that when I agreed to do some post-game stuff about this game, I was labouring under the impression that somebody, somewhere in the world would have a stream of this thing for me to watch.
So officially two lines can get the puck out and keep it in the Phoenix zone. Not a surprise.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
At least Fernie has jump in his legs.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And then gets absolutely flattened by Jovanovski. Ouch. I hope he’s alright.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
jobing.com arena
It’s so quiet that you can hear the players on the ice jawing at each other.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
By “jobing.com arena”, you of course mean “Rexall Place hosting a lottery team during the WJC final with Canada in it”?
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 7:37 PM MST up reply actions
Last time they played Phoenix there were no feeds either – no one watches the Coyotes on television so no one can stream it.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Why in the hell wasn’t there a defenseman on the goal side of that faceoff?!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wait. Wait wait wait. People who sign up for Pepsi’s “Red Sox Cheer Nation” get their names displayed in the Hockey Hall of Fame?
And you guys wonder why I’m a soccer fan.
I don’t. I’m a European agnostic and a Vancouver Whitecaps supporter.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 7:40 PM MST up reply actions
Oh, you really don’t want to get me started…
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 7:50 PM MST up reply actions
At least Pisani is back out there after getting leveled.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
1st period
If there was an “attack zone” stat like in the NHL games, The Horcoff line is in the positive and the Gagner line is dominating. Both the Potulny line and the Cogliano line are getting buried.
You know, if Tambellini would have brought in Wes Walz and another winger, they might okay. Has anyone thought of that?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It’s just like the goaltending, Derek. Nobody could have foreseen things would unfold like this.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 7:50 PM MST up reply actions
Possibly my favorite quote of the year:
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Phoenix goal
Vrbata tells the Phoenix version of Principe that he and Hanzal saw where Gilbert was lined up prior to the faceoff and planned to punch the faceoff forward and get the breakaway.
Nice job Gibby.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
All four minuses on that goal should go to Gilbert.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Fowler
Sum – you’re right – Fowler is a beaut.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He is really good. Just a little more work needed on D-side of things.
Sum – you’re right
What am I getting credit here for?
Aren’t you the one that always makes sure to mention Fowler when people say Hall and Seguin?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Terrible decision by the US not to take a timeout after that icing.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Here is why I love international tournaments: a play-by-play call that dissolves into frantic cheering.
Watching junior hockey is like watching the Oilers. Missed assignments, horrid goaltending, bad passes…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It’s not good offense – it’s just bad defense.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Except that both teams are doing it so the one that we’re cheering for might actually win. Also, how much of a sucker is Bruce for taking those Yotes tickets?
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:18 PM MST up reply actions
They’re probably showing the game on the Jumbotron.
The Oilers are probably watching.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 8:18 PM MST up reply actions
Except that both teams are doing it
What you’re saying is that the WJC title game is Oilers vs. Hurricanes?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Horcoff has the completely unmerited -2 right now.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Potulny – Gagner – Brule could be the smallest power play since the 1930s.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well, the Oilers had O’Sullivan on the point.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Eberle
I really wish those goals would have come from Kadri. This is just going to wind up with Eberle being forced onto the team next year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I really don’t see why this is a problem if he’s ready and he may just be ready.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:26 PM MST up reply actions
Because it means they won’t sign Wes Walz. Tambellini will need to see what he’s got before making any decisions.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Eberle on the team doesn’t mean they can’t purge some of the other junk and bring in a couple of veterans on cheap short-term deals.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:29 PM MST up reply actions
Eberle on the team doesn’t mean they can’t purge some of the other junk and bring in a couple of veterans on cheap short-term deals.
Remove all logic and reason from your brain and read what you wrote again .
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh I realize they won’t likely do it but that has to do with a general management philosophy, not with Eberle. Nothing wrong with this particular young player making the team (if he deserves it, which he just might).
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:32 PM MST up reply actions
I agree with you — in theory. In theory, communism works. In theory.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That Wings team sure had a lot of Soviets :)
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:37 PM MST up reply actions
Well Eberle will have to win a position
You’re out of your mind.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
What, like that would happen. I mean, imagine if, say, Sam Gagner had a good WJHC and then a great exhibition tournament against the Russians. You’re telling me he’d have made the team as a teenager?
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 8:26 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, but Eberle will be 20 by training camp. I think the two situations are pretty different (with some obvious similarities).
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:28 PM MST up reply actions
I like you Massey. You have a good head on your shoulders.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Potulny made a beautiful pass to Lanterns. Lordy.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m calling Roof jobs “Rohypnol” from now on.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Deslauriers
is awful.
Nothing further your honor.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Bryan Pitton is frantically digging through his hockey bag looking for his mask…
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 8:33 PM MST up reply actions
Scott clearly jinxed Deslauriers by writing that puckhandling piece.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
How bad are the Oilers when ties are “for” them?
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 8:32 PM MST up reply actions
The Finns always have next year!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wow, that shot was completely no look. That’ sick.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Eberle can’t make the team now – he single-handedly lost the gold for Canada.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Maybe. That D’Amigo fellow was quite good.
I’m amazed that Carlson doesn’t get Dman of the tourney.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Stortini is in full goon mode tonight.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Tyson Nash just called #89 “Gangyos” or something similar.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m calling him “Robin”, where Jordan Eberle is of course Batman.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 9:13 PM MST up reply actions
They are both small and excitable like Robin.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Still can’t find a feed of the game. Are you eating an entire ham or something?
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 9:14 PM MST up reply actions
Pisani
It’s good to see him flying again.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think Stone just partially decapitated Lombardi.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The best line on the night is Stone – Gagner – Pisani. And it’s not close. They are playing some great hockey.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Quick, Boy Wonder, to the Pisanimobile!
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 5, 2010 9:27 PM MST up reply actions
Rollin rollin rollin
Quinn is letting Tippet match Hanzal or Fiddler against Horcoff and Penner.
It’s maddening to watch.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
2 minutes left...
This is where the Oilers get really good.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Penner
With a huge chance in front stopped by the sneaky Russian.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Quinn has a two line team and he just keeps rolling lines. He shorted the Cogliano line a few shifts late I think.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Pisani with a really unlucky penalty.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Interesting though – Quinn had him out with Nilsson 4 on 4
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Annnnnnnnd of course they can’t kill the penalty.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That was pretty crappy too. Penner stands in front and waves at the rest of his teammates to shoot at him. They all turn around and look at Souray.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh well… at least Shane Doan is in my fantasy pool.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
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