What to do with the Oilers' forwards - Bottom Six Potential
The Oilers desperately lack forwards that can play in the NHL. It's been this way for the last two seasons. They have a top line that can dominate and at times have had a bottom line that can hang. The devil has been in the middle six players on the roster. Without a line worthy of playing second minutes, or matching against the tough minutes when necessary on the road, the Oilers have left their next generation and their never was generation exposed to regular beatings by the real men of the Western Conference. Even worse is that the Oilers have been unable to ice a line that can handle third minutes. Is there anyone on this team capable?
J.F. Jacques has some issues with his hands. In an email the other day, a colleague said that he thinks Jacques has hooks under his gloves instead of hands. His career stat line? 94 NHL games, 3 goals, 5 assists and that's probably generous as far as shots and scoring chances go. It's a shame that Jacques struggles with puck handling, passing, receiving passes, and shooting because he's a physical specimen. He's a big guy and has above-average skating ability, probably outstanding for someone of his size. He's physical, 12th in the league in hits and 5th in hits per game, he's willing to drop the gloves and he's been given praise by multiple coaches, most recently Pat Quinn. Unfortunately, Jacques is not ready for NHL minutes right now. He's bleeding scoring chances (10/13), Corsi (13/13), relative Corsi (13/13), and EV +/- (13/13). Of course, Pat Quinn has done him no favors by pinning him to Horcoff's hip and tossing him out against the toughest competition on the team (3/13).
Can Jacques handle bottom six competition? It would be nice to find out. Quinn would do the Oilers a favor by moving Jacques down to the fourth line for the last forty games and coming to a conclusion about the high-end of Jacques' abilities. He's only making $525,000 and is a restricted free agent, but meat hook hands and a bunch of hits don't translate into big free agency dollars. He'll likely sign for something similar next year and if Quinn finds out he can hold his own against fourth line minutes, Jacques might make a very good 13th or 14th forward next year.
The above sentence says it all about Marc Pouliot's career. As Lowetide will tell you, there was likely a very good two-way center in that body at one time, but injuries have sent his career into a storm drain somewhere near Hamilton. His medical file must be enormous: concussion, mono, concussion, pubis whatever, and each one occurs when the kid gets the wheels turning in the midst of an opportunity.
He's been on the verge of handling himself well in the NHL, and he's actually done some nice things with Gagner, and he's not the anchor, and he can win some faceoffs - something no other Oiler can do. In limited time in the NHL, he's been better than your average Oiler on the penalty kill and the power play.
Pouliot is making $825,000 this year and is restricted next year. A contract at or below that level and a run of good health and Marc Pouliot is the one non-bonafide that the Oilers should be comfortable with in a second-tough minutes role with appropriate veteran help. That means that the Oilers franchise has to give in and finally bring in veteran help. If he were to slide onto the fourth line and be of use on the penalty kill and in faceoff situations, I think the Oilers could get value out of him and his contract.
Liam Reddox is a lightning rod for criticism and for no good reason. Reddox has pushed himself into a 14th forward role through sheer determination and hard work. Drafted #112 overall in 2004, he made it to the show last season by understanding the nature of the game: be in position, get the puck out, get the puck deep, keep the puck deep. For that reason, Craig MacTavish relied on him last season. For THAT reason, fans began to turn on Reddox. MacTavish's "misuse" of Reddox was the final evidence that MacTavish needed to go. Never mind that Reddox spent all of twenty-nine minutes on the first line.
Reddox is what he is - a hard worker, a smart player, a guy that will get the puck in deep and given the chance keep it deep. He's feisty and tries to take the body when possible, even when outsized. He's going to give you penalty kill time and pop in the occasional goal. On the whole, Reddox is a player that "gets" it.
On his callup this year, Reddox showed exactly that. He was making the simple plays that Quinn was begging for all year and he was playing Quinn's game. His Corsi and chances numbers reflected that. Through six games he had 18 chances for, 24 chances against - outchanced by one per game, the relative ranking on the Oilers would have been somewhere around 7/14 at the time. His Corsi was no great shakes, but he wasn't getting blown away. Then came the hit, pictured above. In the three games after Clarke MacArthur put a brutally dirty hit on Reddox, Reddox fell apart. Reddox and his linemates had 1 chance for and 17 chances against. His Corsi value in those three games was -39. Even after he was sent to the AHL, his game suffered. It's a good bet that Reddox was hurt more than he let on.
Where does that leave Reddox? Probably in the same position - 14th forward. The Oilers don't have anyone coming in that's ready (except maybe Linus Omark) and have a bunch of kids that are going to need time in the AHL before they are ready to move by Reddox on the depth chart.
After reviewing the bonafides and the fourth liners, the bottom six potential players leave a forward corps that look like this:
Top three: Hemsky, Horcoff, Penner
Middle six:
Bottom three: Pouliot, Stone, Stortini
Healthy scratches: Potulny, Jacques
Callups: Reddox
Is there enough left to review to create a middle six that can compete in the NHL?
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Comments
I understand why JFJ is out there … he stirs things up with his physical play. Quinn thinks that has value over and above goals and assists, or plus/minus for that matter. No doubt JFJ is a “chaos” player, but it’s tough to make a case that he causes more chaos on the other side of the puck than on our own. He’s brutal offensively, just 7 points despite a lengthy spell with Horcoff and Hemsky, and defensively he’s little short of a disaster. If the guy didn’t show up in a hitting frame of mind for each and every game, I would have less time for him than I do. But he does, and that adds an element Oilers sorely need.
I’ll take Zack Stortini over JFJ, though, thanks; same “offence”, same consistent snarliness, but so much more aware defensively and better positional play generally. JFJ is a tough guy to play with; if you don’t believe me, ask Shawn Horcoff and Patrick O’Sullivan.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 4, 2010 10:22 AM PST up reply actions
I would literally take any current Oiler forward and not a few Falcons over Jacques. This includes “Jason Strudwick as a forward”.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 4, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
uh, Derek, why would Potulny, the only one of these bubble players that can put puck in net be a healthy scratch on your list, ahead of Ryan (hands of) Stone? I think a 4th line of Poo, Pots and Zorg could actually be pretty awesome. Please enlighten me. I am a little slow, eh.
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
Potulny replicates skills and traits throughout the lineup. Pouliot brings a couple of things that this team needs desperately, namely penalty killing and faceoffs.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
agreed on Poo’s skill set. I actually wish he was playing right now (I can’t believe I just said that…) but Potulny brings something stone and JFJ seem unable to do, which is score goals. At the moment, I’ll take a shot at maybe not losing over the hit parade that both bring. To be fair, I think Stone is closer to being a real NHL player than JFJ is as well, but I would rather roll with the a Poo/Pot/Zorg line given the opportunity. I actually think that line could be great. Also, Potulny, though inconsistent on the draw, has been pretty decent in his stints as a C, and doesn’t seem to be a terrible guy to send out on the pk. If anything, 78 and 16 kind of replicate each other, rather than 16 replicating others in the lineup…though when healthy, 78 is the better player
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
If I could only take three of Stortini, Stone, Potulny and Pouliot to fill a fourth line I think Stortini is the guy to put in the pressbox. If someone starts playing poorly, by all means bring Stortini back in, but I like the mix of skills those three bring. Stone is a banger, Pouliot a passer and Potulny a shooter. They could be decent.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 4, 2010 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t see much as far as similarities between 78 and 16. 78 is more defensively aware, a PK asset, and is pass-first. He’s also had limited success on the dot.
16 is a shoot-first forward that has nice offensive zone awareness and a decent shot. He has limitations in the circle. The team has been in desperate need of centers since Carolina lifted the cup.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I see some similarities based on size and d-zone awareness, plus, lets be honest, that’s the way that Quinn has used him so far this year. Sure the Poo is pass first while Pots is a shooter, but they have some things in common. All I know is that both are better players than 32 and 22. I would still keep 46 around and never once consider him the odd man out. He brings more character and heart than anyone else on the team, plus chips in offensively once in a while, can take the odd faceoff or two and keep other teams goons honest. He stays. Period.
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
I’m a big fan of Pouliot, but I don’t think he’s ahead of Ryan Potulny at this point.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Jan 4, 2010 11:46 AM PST reply actions
Right now yes. A healthy Pouliot going into next year? no.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think your comment about role above is important. The Oilers need a center and Pouliot is likely a better center than is Potulny. I’m pretty confident that if both guys were healthy, both would be in the lineup as it stands today.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 4, 2010 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
You speak of role and yet you consign the enforcer to the pressbox. Sorry, not buying, especially if JFJ is also out of the picture.
As for faceoffs, Stortini at 46.0% is ahead of Potulny at 43.7%.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 4, 2010 3:22 PM PST up reply actions
Faceoffs aren’t a concern if Pouliot is the 4th center.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
“Enforcer” is not a role worth filling. Hitting and physicality have a place but from what I’ve seen Stone does that just as well as Stortini. I’ve seen enough numbers and watched enough David Koci and Steve MacIntyre to have no use at all for a true “enforcer.” Stortini is a better hockey player than those two goons but I don’t think he’s as good as the other three.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 4, 2010 5:24 PM PST up reply actions
I have a future article on this very topic…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
"Enforcer" is not a role worth filling.
Sorry, poor choice of word on my part (written in a hurry). Stortini is no Koci or MacIntyre, that’s for sure; the case I’ve been making for the guy all along is that he can play the game somewhat while at the same time having his teammates’ backs and making life miserable for the other team.
Hitting and physicality have a place but from what I’ve seen Stone does that just as well as Stortini.
Well that’s a moot point to me cuz you sure as hell better have more than one guy in the line-up who are doing it. Quinn puts a lot of emphasis on it, that’s why all three of JFJ, Stone and Stortini have been getting regular ice when they’ve been healthy. Moreau too for that matter, and I’d much sooner see Ethan’s back than Zack’s.
This team continues to badly need a true power forward with both skill and a mean streak. Penner has the former, most of the other guys we named have the latter, and the rest are pretty much smurfs. As we have seen, it is not a winning combination.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 5, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
a true power forward
I hope Derek sees that.
With regard to your actual point, I agree that Stortini is better than the true-blue goons but I think the key word in “can play the game somewhat” is “somewhat.” If I have four players, three of whom can “play the game” and one of whom can “play the game somewhat” I know which of those four guys is going to sit on the bench most nights. I too wish the Oilers had more players with some edge to go along with some ability but I don’t think the solution to that problem is taking guys with some edge but low ability.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 5, 2010 10:41 AM PST up reply actions
If we’re talking centre and we’re talking outscoring and we’re talking today, I think Pouliot is ahead of Gagner, never mind Potulny.
People seriously underrate what Pouliot’s crippling has done to this team all through the lineup.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 4, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
based on the team’s play thus far, does it matter? My cynicism is in overdrive… I can’t even imagine what Benjamin is thinking. I’m actually reaching a point where I am wondering if I will even bother writing on my own blog again this year in a serious way and may just let it degenerate to a series of nonsense posts about nothing…again…
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
based on the team’s play thus far, does it matter?
Unfortunately, no. Going forward, maybe. Because if Tambellini decides that this team doesn’t need a center in the offseason, it’s going to be either Gagner or Pouliot for the second minutes job.
Though, if Quinn keeps a rollin’ ‘em, it won’t matter at all.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m genuinely a big Pouliot fan. The Marc Pouliot Fan Club meetings are pretty lonely these days between Lowetide and I, but the parties are worth it.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 4, 2010 7:06 PM PST up reply actions
I think a healthy Pisani and a healthy Pouliot make this a much, much different team. But I don’t know if we’ll ever get the former again and the latter is like an apparition.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I was actually asking if Ben’s quasi-sarcasm mattered, but your answer will do just nicely. I think it’s nearly time for another round-table. I missed out on the annual festivus airing of grievances this year so I’ve got some rage I wanna let out.
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
It’s coming again. And it’s only one question.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
“Your 2009-10 Edmonton Oilers: Fucked or royally fucked?”
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I was going to go with “supremely”.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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