Olli Jokinen - Performing as expected
by Derek Zona on Jan 30, 2010 5:30 AM PST
in Analysis
32 comments
Olli Jokinen was once the darling of certain Oilers message boards and blogs, and was the topic of conversation around more than one Edmonton water cooler. He was the "big scoring center" that would compete against other dominant centers in the Western Conference and bring back the glory to the Oilers. He's a man of size, skill and the dreaded "potential", and though he didn't use the size well, displayed the skill only in bursts and never lived up to his potential, and the Oilers already had a tough minutes outscoring number one center in Shawn Horcoff, Northern Alberta wanted him as their number one pivot. Jokinen's shortcomings and deficiencies were explained away as a lack of quality teammates, and given solid linemates like Ales Hemsky, Jokinen would thrive as a number one center in the West.
Unfortunately, there was never any evidence that Jokinen was able to take on that role. In Florida he was given the second-toughs assignment and couldn't manage to stay above water. The more affordable and less heralded Stephen Weiss was taking on the tough minutes and outscoring them. He arrived in Phoenix to much fanfare, yet couldn't handle the tough minutes. Wayne Gretzky gave Martin Hanzal the tough assignments and starting positions and Jokinen got the second minutes and easy starting assignments. They were both outscored by approximately the same rate.
At the trade deadline last year, Flames General Manager Darryl Sutter decided he needed a big scoring center in order to bring the Stanley Cup home to Calgary. Sutter shipped away a promising young center, Matthew Lombardi, and a draft pick for Jokinen's services over the last nineteen games of the season plus the 2009-2010 season at a cap hit of $5,250,000. The Flames were in first place in the Northwest at the time with a 38-19-4-2 record, ten points in front of Vancouver. The Flames stumbled down the stretch with their new number one center, going 8-11 and squandering their ten point lead as Vancouver.roared to a division title. Jokinen had 8 goals and 7 assists for 15 points as a Flame but, in typical Jokinen fashion, ended up a -7. Any goodwill that remained from the trade was gone when Calgary was dispatched in the first round of the playoffs by the Blackhawks, 4-2.
SB Nation's Oilers vs Flames coverage
This year, Jokinen continues to disappoint Calgary fans, though not at even strength as he's again facing second minutes but he's finally figured out a way to break even against that level of competition. The guys at Matchsticks and Gasoline might argue that breaking even against second minutes is not good enough for a $5,000,000 center.
It's been Jokinen's play with a man advantage that has torpedoed the Flames power play, and a team as short on forward depth as Calgary cannot afford to play poorly on special teams. Calgary's power play ranks 23rd in the NHL at 16.4%. It's the one area where Edmonton fans can point and laugh at Calgary this year as Edmonton's power play is 11th in the NHL at 19%. If Calgary were operating at Edmontonian levels, they'd have five more goals on the season.
Using the outstanding Gabriel Desjardins' microstats analysis site Behind The Net, we can take a look at the Flames' 5-on-4 stats in 2009-2010 shows just how poor Jokinen's performance has been among all Flames forwards with at least one minute of power play time per sixty minutes.
Jokinen is second-to-last in goals per 60, last in goals for on per 60, first in goals for off per 60, and last in goals for differential.
In the NHL this year, there are 175 forwards that average more than two minutes per sixty on the power play. Olli Jokinen ranks 163rd in GFON/60. Matthew Lombardi ranks 40th at 8.02. Noted Oilers' power play scapegoat Shawn Horcoff ranks 118th at 5.95, and that's without the benefit of the team's best power play forward for the last 30 games.
Trading for Jokinen robbed the Flames of Matthew Lombardi's youth and $3,400,000 worth of valuable salary cap space that could have been used for forward depth. Calgary minus Jokinen plus Lombardi, Manny Malhotra and Alex Tanguay is a frightening spectre. Though Flames fans might not want to hear it, the best thing for the team in the long run is that the Flames fall completely out of the playoff race. It would force Sutter to deal Jokinen (maybe he can find a like-minded sucker to surrender a promising young center) and restore some youth and cap room in Calgary.
0 recs |
32 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
i was surprised the the epic fail that jokinen was in calgary. Even that 15 points he had in those games, i remember him getting 5 points in one game. so that makes is 10 points in the other 18!
All 8 goals were in his first 6 games. After that, nada for 13 straight to end the year.
I can make a case he’s slightly snake bit 5 v 5, because I wouldn’t have expected him to shoot 6.6% in that situation. He’s actually generating plenty of shots, though. He has the 8th most 5 v 5 shots in the league at 121.
The PP? Yeah, he’s accomplishing nothing. He doesn’t PK, so that means he has 35 shots either 4 v 4 or on the PP for the whole season. He generates shots at a lower /60 rate in those situations than he does 5 v 5, which isn’t remotely normal, for him, or anyone, since PP shot rates for teams are usually nearly double the rates 5 v 5. The Flames are in the bottom third of the league in terms of SF/60 on the PP, and it would be hard to argue that he isn’t a huge part of the problem.
I’m very glad his contract is up. Sutter made a few grunting noises at the Fan Forum about resigning him, but I sincerely hope that was just the sort of thing GMs say when they don’t want to tip their hand.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 8:07 AM PST up reply actions
I can make a case he’s slightly snake bit 5 v 5, because I wouldn’t have expected him to shoot 6.6% in that situation. He’s actually generating plenty of shots, though. He has the 8th most 5 v 5 shots in the league at 121.
At the same time, he’s playing second minutes. He’s just a big bucket of lowered expectations.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
His QComp is highest of the regular forwards, Derek, by a not insignificant margin. He didn’t just generate all those shots in the last week or two as Sutter has shifted the lines around. That fact doesn’t make him good, of course, because he bleeds shots against in a P v P setup. That stipulated, I can make a distinction between mediocre 5 v 5 play and total ineptitude on the PP. That was his area of strength throughout his career, and he’s done nothing at all in Calgary. He has two PP goals, and there’s absolutely no case to be made that he’s been unlucky during his PP time. He’s been a complete failure when the team is up a man, and that just can’t happen if the Flames have any hope at all of being more than a one-and-done team at best.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
His QComp is highest of the regular forwards, Derek, by a not insignificant margin.
Robert, Gabe has his qualcomp as sixth among the forwards with 30 games played or more.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m showing Jokinen as number one if you require a TOI/60 of 12 or higher. I think that’s what Robert meant by “regular forwards”.
Derek’s using Gabe’s new QComp with Corsi included. I still have some of the concerns Tom Awad mentioned when Gabe first added the stats, but his point is taken.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
Just to add to the pile on, he’s the worst forward on the club in terms of scoring chance differential through 40 games.
What a disaster.
Have you made those numbers public?
That’s amazing. Sutter should do everything he can to recover something at the deadline.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Would you believe that since then, he’s brought it almost all the way back? He was -35 through 40 games. As of Thursday, his EV season total is -6, so +65/-39 for +29 in the 11 games Kent has been able to tally since that point. There are 3 games missing due to lack of TV and a computer failure one evening.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 10:09 AM PST up reply actions
And he had a mix of playing with Jarome, and not Jarome, if you will, during that time period.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 10:10 AM PST up reply actions
That should read -36 for chances against, and a plus 29 total.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 10:11 AM PST up reply actions
So he’s playing easier comp and doing really well as the Flames are collapsing? If he could bang home some power play points, Sutter might be able to sell him.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That would be OK. If they aren’t tanking the season outright, they would still need a representative NHL center in return, if not exactly from the same team that acquired him. Multi-team moves are just hard to make with the way the cap is. Hell, moving anyone with a big salary is hard, as you guys would well know around these parts.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 10:40 AM PST up reply actions
It’s not as hard as the current narrative says it is though. It requires creativity and astute asset management that the current crop of managers have yet to learn and probably won’t understand until a few guys lead by example.
It first requires management to understand that cap space is the single most valuable asset that an organization can possess which, even though three-quarters of the league is struggling with cap management, I don’t think many managers realize this yet.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And as Scott notes below, tanking with no draft picks=fail of the Maple Leaf variety.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Wow, that’s quite the reversal. Course, being moved away from Jarome and facing nobodies has probably helped.
It’s difficult to understate the degree to which the Jokinen/Iginla vs. toughs strategy was a disaster.
by Kent Wilson on Jan 30, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions
The question is, does the failure of those two as a duo solely reflect on Jokinen? I don’t know, to be honest. Joker has some glaring holes in his game that should preclude him from top line duties on a decent team, but I’m not really seeing Iginla as an elite player any more, with or with out Jokinen on his line. He’s still very good, but he’s slipped a notch, and the signs were there last year before Olli came on the scene.
by Robert Cleave on Jan 30, 2010 11:29 AM PST up reply actions
It reflects on Jokinen inasmuch as it confirms that he’s not a true top line option. Give Jarome an actual $5M center and I think a lot of this goes away.
I’m not going to run around defending Jarome though. He’s been no screaming hell himself this year and you’d think a $7M player could toe the line himself with a bit more aplomb.
Given that Jokinen has been outscored by seconds (and with easy starting position last year) for the prior two years, I don’t think it reflects on Jokinen, rather it reinforces what we already knew.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve been saying we (the Flames) need to tank for a while now. And somehow get a 1st rounder.
Not that it’ll do us any good. Drafting is not something the Flames are particularly good at.
Your conclusion is a bit odd Derek. The Flames don’t even own their first rounder this year and Jokinen’s contract is up at the end of the year so – as long as they don’t re-sign him at big dollars – they’ll get the cap space in the summer anyway. How on earth is it better for them to tank out of the playoffs? Or was that tongue-in-cheek?
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 30, 2010 11:12 AM PST reply actions
Because being eliminated from the playoff race all but forces Sutter’s hand to actually move Jokinen and get value out of him. The team is going nowhere and has absolutely no space to make a move for help, so they are better off not making it and actually getting something out of clearing the cap space
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I just don’t see it. Certainly Sutter’s not better off from tanking; he’d likely be fired. They get the cap space in the summer whether they trade Jokinen or not, so the cap relief thing is a non-issue. Given his performance over the last two years, that cap space is likely to be the bulk of the return anyway. Maybe they’re able to flip him somewhere for another bad expiring contract and a late 1st. I don’t really see 20th(ish) overall picks as having a lot of value. I just don’t see the urgency to move Jokinen. He’s not a great player by any means, but, thinking it’s better to tank out of the playoffs so that you can get some return on a non-elite UFA? That’s weird, man. I know I’d much rather see my team make the playoffs than get an extra late 1st round pick. And this whole discussion assumes Jokinen won’t be traded unless the Flames are out of it which may not be true.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 30, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not sure where you are getting that I advocate a tank-job.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Though Flames fans might not want to hear it, the best thing for the team in the long run is that the Flames fall completely out of the playoff race.
That’s basically how I understood this. Maybe “tanking” wasn’t the best word. “Losing” would work just as well in my paragraph above.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 30, 2010 1:28 PM PST up reply actions
And even if Sutter is fired, it’s better for the team in the long run for them to fall out of the playoff race. They’re an incrementally better version of the Oilers.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
How many increments? They’ve been a pretty good team these last several years. No luck in the playoffs mind you, but they’re not horrible and the GM has done a lot of good things too. If I were a Flames fan I wouldn’t be cheering for Sutter to get canned unless the man waiting in the wings was a clear upgrade (how many of those are there?). And I certainly wouldn’t be cheering for them to miss the playoffs when they’re sitting one point out, have no 1st rounder and a pretty decent club.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 30, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
I see a team that is teetering on a very narrow ledge. They have no big league depth, no organizational depth and they are at the cap with Regher, Iginla and Kipper starting the downhill slide.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m not sure why you’re concerned about depth. They have a lot of pretty decent players I think and that 5.5M can buy them at least two good players or one great one. I think they’ll be fine going forward.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 30, 2010 9:41 PM PST up reply actions
As of Thursday, his EV season total is -6, so +65/[-36] for +29 in the 11 games Kent has been able to tally since that point. There are 3 games missing due to lack of TV and a computer failure one evening.
So he’s had his best run of the season during the Flames’ current skid? That seems odd. Do these stats match what you have observed by eye?
The Flames don’t even own their first rounder this year
What happened to it? Traded for Olli Jokinen, eh? Ouch. Lombardi, Vandermeer, a first rounder and the cap space that used to be Mike Cammalleri is a mighty high price for the performance he has delivered.
I rarely say “I told you so” – likely because it’s so rare that I’m actually right :) – but the below was my first comment of the day on Lowetide’s epci Trade Deadline thread in 2009.
Good morning … in for the duration.
I was going to say that I wouldn’t mind at all seeing Calgary dump Lombardi, and with Bobby Mac all but announce O.Jokinen to Calgary, surely the one-time Oiler draft Lombardi is part of the package going south.
Casting my crystal ball ten years into the future I can see Lombardi causing a lot more pain to Oiler fans than Jokinen in a Flames sweater.
Still guesswork of course, I could be off base … but I’d be surprised if he wasn’t part of it.
So, Calgary fans, how much do you miss Lombardi?
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on The Copper & Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Northwest Standings
Oilers Schedule
Next 5 Games
Calgary
|
Thu 10/07 | 7:00 PM PDT |
|
Florida
|
Sun 10/10 | 5:00 PM PDT |
|
@
Minnesota
|
Thu 10/14 | 5:30 PM PDT |
|
@
Calgary
|
Sat 10/16 | 7:00 PM PDT |
|
Minnesota
|
Thu 10/21 | 6:00 PM PDT |
Last 5 Games
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/11 | L 2 - 7 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Sat 04/10 | SO - W 4 - 3 |
|
Colorado
|
Wed 04/07 | OT - W 5 - 4 |
|
Minnesota
|
Mon 04/05 | W 4 - 1 |
|
@
Phoenix
|
Sat 04/03 | SO - L 2 - 3 |
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
