What to do with the Oilers' forwards - The Fourth Liners
I looked at the Oilers' legitmate NHL players here and found that they've got a trio of tough minutes outscorers on the cheap. I'm going to look at the fourth liners next, and this may seem a bit out of order, but stay with me. A couple of years back Edmonton was able to ice the best fourth line in the NHL for twenty-six games. The combination of Curtis Glencross, Kyle Brodziak and Zack Stortini outscored their competition by a wide margin and was a primary factor in the Oilers having any semblance of competitiveness that season. Since then, the fourth line has been a mishmash of players that neither Craig MacTavish nor Pat Quinn have interest in playing.
This year, because of injuries, the Oilers have found themselves playing more than a handful of guys that have struggled in the AHL, let alone the NHL. There have been a few that have differentiated themselves this year, and the Oilers should carefully manage negotiations heading into the summer to make sure that they keep these low-cost, middling impact players in the bottom six.
There are three players on the team right now that can be classified as current NHL fourth-line players. Here's a quick rundown.
Ryan Potulny was somewhat of a puzzle to Edmonton fans. Since coming to Edmonton in exchange for Danny Syvret, he's outplayed expectations in both the NHL and AHL. He potted 38 goals on a dreadful Springfield team last year and performed quite well in his injury call-up last year. Unfortunately, Gilbert Brule was guaranteed a spot on the team because of his waiver situation and no matter how Potulny played in camp, he was destined to start the year in Springfield. Potulny was again called up because of injury and has again beat expectations. He's got a positive scoring chance differential, his raw and relative Corsi are both 5/13 and he's holding his own against second and third minutes competition. Potulny is capable of outplaying 4th line minutes and holding his own with 3rd line minutes. Potulny is making $595,000 this year and is restricted at the end of the season. His next contract should be under $1,000,000 and should mean that Potulny will be holding down the 4th line center job for much of next season.
Stone has been somewhat of a surprise. Originally kept around after training camp as part of Pat Quinn's "size on every line" experiment, Stone has outplayed all of the forwards in his grouping. Injuries caused him to miss 19 games, but the numbers don't lie. He leads the team in scoring chance differential and chances against per time on ice. He's one of only four Oilers with a positive chance differential. He's the team leader in raw Corsi and 3rd in relative Corsi. He's done all of this while facing second tough minutes with bottom level teammates. At the very least, Stone's play indicates that he should easily handle 4th line minutes, maybe even outplay third-tough minutes. Stone is making $600,000 this year and is a restricted free agent at the end of the year. A contract in the range of $800,000 per year would give the Oilers a much needed outplayable contract and bring some stability to the bottom six.
I'm not as enamored as some with Stortini. Since the breakup of the Brodziak / Glencross line, Stortini's numbers have fallen off sharply. This year he's giving up a full chance more per game than he's creating, but he's benefiting from the good fortune of a .954 even strength save percentage while he's on the ice. He's actually been involved in outscoring his opponents by a 13 - 10 margin. To give you an indication of the good fortune, if Shawn Horcoff was backed by that .954, he would be a +4, rather than a -19. Both Stortini's raw and relative Corsi is 10/13 on the team after a 2008-2009 season where he was 13/14 in both categories.
Stortini has one year left at $700,000 and has one more restricted contract after that. It is a low-cost contract, but Stortini isn't outplaying that contract at this point. However, if the Oilers feel the need to keep a pugilist on the team, Stortini is worth it - his low-impact underlying numbers fall in line with other enforcers like Colton Orr and Darcy Hordichuk.
The bonafides and the 4th liners are both relatively low-cost options that should be able to cumulatively outplay both their opponents and their contracts. It's the middle six that the Oilers will need to overhaul moving forward. More on that to come.
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Agree. That would be a beauty 4th line. Too bad those guys are too often needed in the top 9.
Stortini is a real solid 4th liner given solid linemates. Way to often the last two seasons he has played with absolute dregs.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 3, 2010 11:34 AM PST up reply actions
Given the price, ~$2.3 million and the combined playing ability of this line, as long as you’re not rolling your lines this line should do some damage through the year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Stortini’s job isn’t to put up points, himself. That’s just icing on the cake. So I would hope that you aren’t suggesting that he should be moved because of a drop in points. His line is still producing more than it is allowing, for one… on a team where we’ve gone into the sewer, far worse off than even last year.
A measure of a tough 4th liner isn’t his production anyways, which I would assume you would agree. Stortini is still in the pluses, he’s also a hitting machine (albeit not as much as Jacques), generally gives a consistent and predictable effort, and word is he has strong leadership qualities. Unlike a lot of enforcers, he also has an incredible ability to not take many bad penalties. I wish I could pull up a statistic to show how many he’s drawn or how many guys he’s brought to the box with him.
Really, I like Stortini. I wouldn’t say I’m “enamored” with him, but I would say that I see the merits of having him on the team. I would consider him in my keepers on the team. The enforcer that can play is a rare commodity, so I’m happy we have one.
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So I would hope that you aren’t suggesting that he should be moved because of a drop in points.
Where on earth do I suggest that?
His line is still producing more than it is allowing, for one
Only because of insane goaltending:
“but he’s benefiting from the good fortune of a .954 even strength save percentage while he’s on the ice. "
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That started to correct itself with the brutal seive job by JDD on Murray’s goal last night.
As an aside, in their first 42 games Oilers have allowed game-winners to Brendan Witt (2 goals all year, both in the same game against the Oilers), Matt Greene (1 goal all year), Sean O’Donnell (1 goal all year), and Murray (2 goals all year). These four guys have played a combined 2465 GP and average less than 1 goal per 40 GP. Yet all have beaten the Oilers this year.
Sigh.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 3, 2010 3:00 PM PST up reply actions
If Stortini and his team leading es sv pct were down around Brule’s .915, Stortini would be 13 GF, 18 GA. If he were all the way down in rolling craps every other throw territory like Horcoff’s .868, he’d be 13 GF, 28 GA.
Stortini is having some serious luck on his side when it comes to goals.. His chance differential is -1.615 per 15.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Maybe Stortini just makes Deslauriers better. You ever think of that???
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 3, 2010 4:57 PM PST up reply actions

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