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Who is the Oilers third-best prospect?

Theo Peckham, doing what he does best, via cdn.picapp.com

Theo Peckham, doing what he does best, via cdn.picapp.com

Jordan Eberle and Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson ran away with the voting for the first and second spots, so we're  interested in what you think about the best of the rest.  Below the jump are the stats for each candidate using the outstanding work of Gabriel Desjardins and his NHL Equivalency models.  Vote for the prospect you see as the brightest light in the system and tell us why you voted that way in the comments.

Star-divide

Presented to you without bias and in alphabetical order minus Eberle and Pääjärvi, the contestants:

 


Teemu Hartikainen

#35 / Left Wing / KalPa

6-1

201

May 3, 1990

Round 6, 2008 #163 overall

Wasama Trophy Winner, 2008-2009



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Teemu Hartikainen 11 19 30 16

 

 

 


Anton Lander

#51 / Center / Timrå IK

6-0

185

Apr 24, 1991

18 yrs old



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Anton Lander 7 15 22 16

 

 

 


Riley Nash

#14 / Center / Cornell Big Red

6-1

179

May 09, 1989



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Riley Nash 10 18 28 61

 

 

 


Linus Omark

#67 / LW / Dynamo Moskva

5-9

185

Feb 05, 1987

 



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Linus Omark 26 17 43 40

 

 

 


Theo Peckham

#49 / Defenseman / Springfield Falcons

6-2

223

Nov 10, 1987



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Theo Peckham 0
9 9 33

 

 

 


Jeff Petry

#2 / Defenseman / Michigan State Spartans

6-3

195

Dec 09, 1987



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Jeff Petry 4
21 25 22

 

 

 


Chris Vande Velde

#29 / Center / North Dakota Fighting Sioux

6-2

207

Mar 15, 1987



G A P PIM
2009 NHLE - Chris Vande Velde 8
17 25 22

Poll
Who is the Oilers third-best prospect?
Teemu Hartikainen
27 votes
Anton Lander
53 votes
Riley Nash
26 votes
Linus Omark
76 votes
Theo Peckham
42 votes
Jeff Petry
63 votes
Chris Vande Velde
3 votes

290 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 24 comments |

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Comments

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Confusion from the sidelines.

This gets back to the never-ending debate, of what you mean by ‘best’? Is it the player that will have the longest impact for the Oilers/in the NHL, or the player that could possibly play top 3 Dman or or the 1st Line. For Eberle and Pääjärvi-Svensson, it is simple because either could play on the top line and have a very good chance of succeeding in the NHL.

I and going to combine these two categories of the ‘best’ and have a tie: Linus Omark and Jeff Petry. Both players have the possibility to be above average player at their respective positions (not elite, but significantly above average). Omark could be a exceptional 2nd liner (eating up the soft minutes, if the coach decides to line match): like Nilsson but with more goal scoring ability, less play making, and hopefully more effort. Petry is big, a good skater (from my scouting reports, aka LT), and has the ability to be a two way 3/4 Dman: kinda like Gilbert.

Here is the rub: not only do the replicate player-types that the Oilers have a lot of, but they are not exceptional at these as well. The players we need to be the third best prospect (big goal scoring LW=Hartikainen, big defensive centres=Vande Velde, Lander, Horcoff-lite=Nash), do not have the chops in both categories of the ‘best’. Either they have a ceiling on what they can play in the NHL or have smaller chace of playing in the NHL.
 Can Hartikainen play on a 2nd line in the NHL? Will Vande Velde be able to get off the fourth line? Will Lander or Nash develop fully? These are big question marks.

But if I am betting on who will be the best prospect playing in the NHL next year, that is Peckham.

So I am not voting, ‘cause I really don’t know.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jan 24, 2010 7:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I like to break this down into one simple question: “Which player do I think will make the biggest impact in the NHL over his career?” It’s very difficult to predict these things so I tend to use a little math, a little scouting (from other people) and a lot of gut on combining the two. For me, the Oilers basically have two really good prospects, a few guys I’d say should have a reasonable impact at the NHL level and a bunch of maybes (should make the NHL but small impact or far from sure things to make the Show).

by Scott Reynolds on Jan 24, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This gets back to the never-ending debate, of what you mean by ‘best’?

The beauty of this poll is that it doesn’t matter what I mean by “best”. It only matters what you think. If you would like it to be a popularity contest, make it happen. if you mean highest upside, go for it. If you mean longest career, vote that. If you mean best guess based on draft pedigree, vote it.

If you’d like to combine them all and come up with your BCB value, please do.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 8:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still confused

Well, if I was asked to define the term ‘best’ for the purpose of evaluating prospects here would be it:

Best: Adj, as the superlative of good; in relation to hockey: the quality of playing as a definable player-type (offensive defenseman, a two way center, a goal scoring winger, etc…), the possibility to excel as this player-type, the ability to accomplish this, and the possibility to exceed this player-type.

Example of meeting these four conditions, and give them a rating out of 5 (one being the least likely and five the most likely):

Omark
- he has the quality of playing as an goal scoring winger (3)
- his record in the SEL and KHL demonstrate that he could excel as a second line winger (4)
- he has a high degree of chance to accomplish this since he is has demonstrated this in two excellent leagues (4)
- he does not have a high chance of exceeding his player-type, as his defensive play has never been top drawer in either of the leagues he has played in. (1)

Nash
- he has the quality of being a two-way center (3)
- his NCAA record looks to be spotty year to year (2)
- he has a low to average chance of accomplishing this, since he has played in weaker leagues to his age level: BCJH and Ivy League NCAA. (2)
- he could excel at being an above average offensive threat, so he could outplay his player-type: ala Horcoff. (3)

Eberle
- has the ability to be an consent offensive threat (5)
- has demonstrated it on a variety of teams: the Pats, a weakling this year, and Team Canada, very good two years in a row. (4)
- has dominated the WHL, played well in the AHL for a short stint, and was a key component of Team Canada’s Offensive to WJ in a row (4)
- Could become a very good defensive player to go along with his offense, as an outscorer. (3.5)

For some math folks they could do a strictly quantitative analysis: that Eberle has 16.5, Omark 12, and Nash 10 on the best scale.
Others could do a qualitative analysis that values one condition more then others (say possibility to play the player-type at the NHL level and the Omark and Eberle would have the same rating; or what player-type could they be and Eberle would be ahead of the rest).
Lastly others could combine both the qualitative and quantitative, and develop a weighted mathematical analysis (that condition is weighted a four, the third condition as 3, the second as 2, and the fourth condition as 1): so that Eberle would score 43.5, Omark 33, and Nash 25.

I don’t know if this is helpful or what Derek asked for?

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jan 24, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Has anyone ever accused you of over-thinking a question?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 10:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, many times but that ‘skill’ has gotten me where I am today.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jan 24, 2010 11:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Which is where, exactly? ;)

I looked at the list, went hmmm, and clicked one. And I’ve overthought a few problems in my day.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 24, 2010 12:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It has gotten me to my lowest paying job since I was 16: graduate student at the University of Western Ontario. i still think that me definition of ‘best’ is completely reasonable and useful, withstanding the ranking structure but solely in a qualitative sense.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jan 24, 2010 1:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right now, I’m googlee over Petry. I finally got to watch a Spartan’s game (televised, that is), so I got to see what the hype was all about.

Well, here’s my short assessment:

First off, he’s BIG (6’3, 200). Secondly, he uses his size better than Gilbert does (from what I hear). I didn’t get much opportunity to see that. He roughed a few guys up Smid-style, but didn’t get to see any big hits aside from a glancing hip check. As far as defensively, he bailed his goaltender out big time twice in a row on one shift. He seemed to stray from the smart defensive areas though when he wasn’t standing in front of the net though. He roved and applied pressure like a centreman, a few times. Offensively, I was very impressed. His slapshot is an absolute laser. He also has a very hard wrister that he can use from the point. He also really likes to jump in on the breakout/rush. I saw that a few times that game. He was very akin to Pitkanen, in that regard.

Anyways, I voted Petry, just because I’ve now seen him. Plus I know a lot of people are drooling over Omark, but I’m not at all convinced that he isn’t another youtube-sensation-bust. I’ll wait to see him in a game before I get excited. And as for Petry, the same goes for him too.. won’t get too excited until I see him in NHL action. Some of what he does may only work at the college level.

Visit www.puttingonthefoil.com

by Racki on Jan 24, 2010 9:02 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Plus I know a lot of people are drooling over Omark, but I’m not at all convinced that he isn’t another youtube-sensation-bust.

He’s produced in the two toughest non-NHL leagues in the world. At this point, no other Oiler property has a track record as solid as Omark, including about six current Oilers. So he may not be #3 on this list, but he’s not anywhere near bust level.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 9:19 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, he’s old for a prospect, short, has an attitude problem, and won’t come over for anything less than a one-way contract which might see him turned into a fine paste by the NHL.

by Benjamin Massey on Jan 24, 2010 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey that worked for Fabian Brunnstrom, who is now … a player in the NHL.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 24, 2010 12:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I voted Petry

Because I always root for guys from Michigan universities. :)

Plus his nickname has to be Peaches (just like his father), and I think food nicknames are funny.

"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero

by Baroque on Jan 24, 2010 10:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Petry for me

as well but I think they need to give Omark a shot. Nilsson is a bust, imo, and I think POS is at the tipping point as well. May as well get rid of them and see if Omark has the chops to make it. If he does not, fine, but they need to find out.

by Pat Mc on Jan 24, 2010 10:49 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I said in my summation of what to do with the forwards that they should give him a roster spot. If he flames out, he goes back to the K.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 10:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don’t mind a one-way contract for Omark as long as it’s not long-term, big-money. Has to be entry-level, doesn’t it? If it doesn’t work out he’s got European options.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 24, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, it has to be entry-level, but they could guarantee him a roster spot to lure him over. If it works and he puts up 40 points with Gagner against soft comp, awesome. It’s an $800,000 deal and well worth the risk.

If he flames out, you send him to the A, which immediately sends him back to the K. Nothing lost.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 1:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Vande Velde

He got 3 votes for the #1 prospect, and none for the #3. I think the Sioux must be traveling today.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 1:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Well, if you think he’s the best prospect, of course you don’t think he’s the third-best prospect.

by Benjamin Massey on Jan 24, 2010 1:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah. Of course.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Lander has really caught up to Petry and Omark. Earlier in the day it seemed like a two horse race.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jan 24, 2010 1:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Johan and his 12 identities woke up.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have to go with Omark on this particular question. While youtube highlight reels are full of cautionary tails, Omark has the benefit of positive results playing in what are arguably the second and third best hockey leagues in the world. His totals as compared to other players whom have had sucess in those leagues and transitioned to the NHL are certainly encouraging. Based upon the available indicators I’d say Omark is the best of the above options when one defines best as “most likely to be experience success playing for the Oilers based upon what we currently know about them”.

by ChrisBat on Jan 24, 2010 2:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Petry

Closing in on Omark now.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 24, 2010 6:45 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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