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What to do with the Oilers forwards - conclusion

After combing through the rubble that is the the Edmonton forwards grouping, we were left with a set of forwards that is substantially lacking a couple of players who can play the game.

Star-divide

This lineup assumes that Gilbert Brule can be signed to a contract of $1,500,000 or less.  If not, the Oilers are better off pulling a pump-and-dump with him and keeping Robert Nilsson on board. In addition, the review of these players concluded that Andrew Cogliano was best used as a trade asset and Ethan Moreau would be traded or bought out of the final year of his contract.

Top threeAles Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Dustin Penner

These are all power-versus-power players that will outscore and as a group, these guys are absolute bargains.  The one thing the Oilers don't lack right now is a top line.  If there is an opportunity to bring in a top line player, either Horcoff or Penner could be used effectively to build a second line.

Middle six:  Sam Gagner, Patrick O'Sullivan, Linus Omark, Fernando Pisani

The $800,000 version of healthy Fernando Pisani makes this grouping much more palatable, but the fragility of Pisani's health means that the 13th forward can't be a throw-away.  Gagner is having such a subtly strong season that he's going to be a good one, but shouldn't be counted on to be the second minutes center yet.  O'Sullivan is a player that should be able to handle second minutes as long as he's not swimming through the Erie Canal pulling a barge with his teeth. Omark -- I believe is a calculated risk that the team must take.  He would be on an entry-level deal for ~$800,000 and by his NHLE, he should be able to outplay that contract, especially getting third-level minutes.  On a team that is bereft of outplayable contracts, low-downside moves like this are a must.  If he doesn't work out, he would likely head back to the KHL long before he hit the AHL and Ryan Potulny has shown the ability to play the NHL game at two positions.

Bottom three: Gilbert Brule, Marc Pouliot, Ryan Stone, Zack Stortini

A healthy Pouliot could finally replace Kyle Brodziak.  Brule on the cheap along with Stone and Stortini round out what could be a very effective fourth line for a coach that cared about matchups.

Healthy scratches:  Ryan Potulny

Callups:  Jean-Francois Jacques, Liam Reddox

 

That leaves the team with a lineup that looks roughly like this at even strength:

Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky

O'Sullivan - ??????  - Pisani

?????? - Gagner - Omark

Stone - Pouliot - Brule

The power play should be plenty capable with Penner, Hemsky, Gagner, and Omark.

The penalty kill would likely need at least one more effective forward to help but the grouping of Penner, Horcoff, O'Sullivan, Pisani, and Pouliot should be something to build on.

Assuming that the Oilers will be able to bring back a useful roster forward when shipping away Nilsson, Cogliano and Souray/Visnovsky, they should only have to add one forward in free agency.  Assume that they add someone in the Jeff Halpern* family of centers via trade and the forwards that the Oilers should pursue in free agency would be players like Colby Armstrong, Matthew Lombardi, Matt Stajan, Alex Tanguay, and Ray Whitney.  Should the trades work out the other way, and the Oilers would bring in Joel Ward**, then the Oilers should be pursuing centers like  Eric Belanger, Manny Malhotra, or Dominic Moore.

Odds of this balanced lineup happening are slim, but a fix up front is not far away for a prudent manager.

*Note, I am not advocating that the Oilers trade for Jeff Halpern, but someone with his skill set and experience.
*Note, I am not advocating that the Oilers trade for Joel Ward, but someone with his skill set and experience.

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I think you’re right, but it would take balls of steel to have all of Eberle, Paajarvi and Hall/Seguin on the outside looking in. For me, Eberle needs to be in the mix competing for a job with a legitimate chance at making the team. That doesn’t mean you hesitate to send him to the AHL if he plays badly, but I think he should be in the mix. At the very least, I’m confident that he’s a better “call-up” option than Jacques.

If we assume a 55M budget to start the year that gives us about 27.5M to spend on 14 forwards. After the top four of Penner, Horcoff, Hemsky and O’Sullivan we have ten forwards to sign at an average of 1.07M. Gagner is likely going to take a big chunk of that money so I’m not sure where the Oilers are going to find the dough for a guy like Armstrong or Tanguay.

by Scott Reynolds on Jan 19, 2010 12:10 PM PST reply actions  

I think you’re right, but it would take balls of steel to have all of Eberle, Paajarvi and Hall/Seguin on the outside looking in.

No doubt. But it’s the right move. Let them force their collective ways onto the roster. Not just in camp, either.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 19, 2010 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

It seems that most of us commentators in this neck of the woods would be a lot more conservative with young players than NHL teams. I wonder why there are so few examples of bad teams putting high (as in top three) draft picks in the minors. From 2009 we have all three guys in the NHL. In 2008 it was all three again. In 2007 only Kane made the jump, in 2006 it was just Staal and in 2005 just Crosby. Interestingly, five out of five guys with NCAA eligibility played at least one year in the NCAA and one out of nine guys that needed to be returned to Canadian major junior went back. That might say something about how NHL teams feel about the CHL as a developmental league for top players. If the pattern holds, all three of Hall, Seguin and Fowler are going to be playing NHL hockey next year.

by Scott Reynolds on Jan 19, 2010 3:28 PM PST up reply actions  

Either that or it was circumstance and desperation.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 19, 2010 4:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I’ve got to tell you, this doesn’t seem all that different from what I would do if I held the reigns. I might try to bring in a guy like Armstrong so that one of he or O’Sullivan can do the babysitting with Gagner for the new guy (you chose Omark, but it could be any of he, MPS, or Eberle depending on who has the better camp) against the NHL’s lesser lights.

And of course, doing what they should’ve done last year and calling up Malhotra, Bonk, or that type on July 1st is an absolute must.

Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
(rookie) – Gagner – Armstrong
O’Sullivan – Malhotra* – Pisani
Potulny – Pouliot – Stortini

by ykmisfit on Jan 19, 2010 2:01 PM PST reply actions  

Armstrong >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> O’Sullivan

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 19, 2010 2:24 PM PST up reply actions  

ok, but what does that have to do with anything?

by ykmisfit on Jan 19, 2010 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

I dunno, you’re the one who brought up Armstrong or O’Sullivan could babysit Gagner. My choice would be Armstrong, by a mile.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 20, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions  

I guess it all depends on which you consider to be a more important role. Playing win on a defensive shutdown line that does the bulk of the heavy lifting at ES, or being a safety net/vetran presence on a soft minutes offensive line. It wasn’t a matter of one being with Gagner, and the other being off the team. Plus, if you look at my lineup, that’s exactly what I did (Armstrong with Gagner).

by ykmisfit on Jan 20, 2010 9:14 AM PST up reply actions  

I would take Belanger in place of Malhotra and be happy.

I’d take Omark because there is zero risk in it. If he bombs out, he goes back to the K and you can call up Hall/Eberle in his place. If he succeeds, you have a cheap as heck contract on a guy that has already spent two seasons playing against the big boys and he’s doing well by most standards. Omark won’t come over for a job in the A, so they might as well pull the trigger and see what he’s made of.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 19, 2010 3:10 PM PST up reply actions  

That makes sense to me. Let the oldest guy have the first shot.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 19, 2010 3:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Oldest

It’s not just that he’s the oldest, it’s the unique situation that he’s put the Oilers in. s.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jan 19, 2010 4:07 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Agreed. I wasn’t clear, but my first sentence was agreeing with your main point about his situation, and the second was pointing out that he’s also the oldest guy which is another reason he might be closest to ready.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jan 20, 2010 8:17 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t really care which one it is. Whoever has the best camp gets the job IMO. I really don’t see a reason to gift wrap anyone a roster spot, especially when they haven’t played a single game in the NHL.

by ykmisfit on Jan 19, 2010 8:26 PM PST reply actions  

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(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:23)

Gilbert (22:24)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:24)

Visnovsky (17:14)

Points:

Penner (63)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (32)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (31)

Gilbert (23)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.152)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (203)

Gilbert (96)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.405)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.241)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.850)

Gilbert (4.360)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.448)

Visnovsky (.122)

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