What would you offer for Atlanta's UFA-to-be Ilya Kovalchuk?
by Derek Zona on Jan 11, 2010 1:47 PM PST
35 comments
via cdn.picapp.com
Via The Falconer at Bird Watchers Anonymous comes this question:
What would you, as general manager of the team your root for, be willing to part with for Ilya Kovalchuk?
The rules are as follows:
- This offer is for Kovalchuk only.
- The Oilers would obviously acquire negotiation rights. The Oilers could trade those rights prior to July 1st if an agreement cannot be reached.
- No sign-and-trade proposals - Don Waddell is against those.
All of SBNation's Hockey Sites are participating in this, and The Falconer is going to take the best offer. So let's hear it - what would you part with?
The Falconer sent over a list of needs:
[The Thrashers] will want a roster player and a quality prospect(s)conditional 1st rounders if Kovalchuk re-signs with your club. No goalies needed (team has three already). Not looking for over 33 guys or bloated contracts (sorry no Campbell or Huet)
Remember, the Oilers' management team is fond of whale-hunting and there are few whales larger than Kovalchuk. Would they be willing to trade Dustin Penner to have a shot to sign the guy to a megabucks deal? Tom Gilbert? Jordan Eberle?
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We have no roster players without bloated contracts, therefore we cannot make any such trade.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 11, 2010 1:57 PM PST reply actions
I’d offer nothing and want nothing from Kovalchuk. Unless Atlanta is willing to take Moreau, Khabibulin, Staios, Jacques and three conditional picks, it doesn’t work.
Actually, there we go, that’s my offer.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’d pluck Kovalchuk as an unrestricted free agent in a heartbeat. But to trade kids beyond the Cogliano level for him? Not the right move.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 11, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
Pluck? I’m pretty sure that the Oilers would have to kidnap him and extort him to get him to sign.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Dude, have you ever been to Atlanta? Edmonton will look like a paradise after almost a decade there.
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 11, 2010 3:29 PM PST up reply actions
I have. It’s actually among my five least favorite places to go.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Then you know what I’m talking about. Have Katz and Lowe fly to Atlanta, pick up Kovalchuk, fly him to Edmonton, put him in a limo with blacked-out windows, show him West Edmonton Mall and the river valley and prevent him from seeing anything else. It’s July, so the weather is lovely. Then Lowe offers him a contract while Katz counts down how much lower the offer is getting as Kovalchuk hems and haws on signing it.
It would work in a sitcom, dammit!
by Benjamin Massey on Jan 11, 2010 3:41 PM PST up reply actions
At this stage, I don’t think the Oilers should contemplate Kovalchuk. It just doesn’t make any sense. That said, if Atlanta ends up keeping him and wants to trade his negotiation rights maybe the Oilers can unload some salary if they’d like to. Perhaps even one of Staios or Moreau if it’s in conjunction with some other goodies. I’d be all aboard a trade of, say, Moreau, O’Sullivan and futures (our 2nd rd. pick and/or marginal prospect(s)) for the negotiation rights to Kovalchuk. Even if you don’t sign him, the trade isn’t a disaster for the Oilers. If the Thrashers/whichever team ends up with Kovalchuk like O’Sullivan they might see it as a decent deal.
Dammit Reynolds! Why you so quick on the draw? I was going to trade Patio Lanterns and kill two birds with one stone too.
My initial offer at the trade deadline would be O’Sullivan, Wild and a 2011 first rounder, and my final offer would see Wild swapped out for Taylor Chorney.
If we’re just picking up his negotiation rights at the end of the season though…Lanterns and Chorney.
Dear lord, I can only imagine the offer that he would get from Lowe.
9 years, 81 million?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Too much term for my taste. But if you knock it down to 5 years and 45 million, I’m not so sure that’s a bad deal.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 11, 2010 5:37 PM PST up reply actions
He wants $10 million. If he only wanted $7 million, this deal would be done. If he only wanted $7 million, I’d consider making such a deal.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Would he sign a 15 year 90M contract?
Go 10M for 7 years, then 5 for 2 years, 2.5 for 2 years, 1.25 for 4 years.
He’ll be 27 when the contract kicks it. Pay him his much wanted 10M until he’s 34.
After that will either be good trade bait to a team long on cap space but short on actual money or be earning his contract.
All that for a 6M hit.
Quick! Do it before they close the loophole.
On second thought, the teams with money love the loophole, I doubt they close it.
If it’s 10M over 5 years it could be a good deal. The only guys with 40 goals every year since the lockout are him and Ovechkin. I know “goals” is just one statistic but it is a doozy.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 11, 2010 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
In order to make that fit, Tambellini and Lowe would have to be better general managers (by an order of magnitude) than either of them have ever previously demonstrated.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Lowe was pretty decent before the lockout… but you’re right that it would take some pretty heavy maneuvering and they’re not likely to be up for the job.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 11, 2010 9:53 PM PST up reply actions
Well, that’s a $9M deal, too. Scott just knocked term off.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I don’t think we should going after Kovalchuk at this point. If we do, then we have to be moving either Khabibulin or Horcoff the other way. Only way it works. Souray and Visnovsky also of course make a lot of salary too, but I wouldn’t trade them for UFA Kovalchuk. I mean, obviously Kovalchuk is more valuable than anyone on our team, however with the team being in rebuild mode (or SHOULD be in rebuild mode), trading away one good contract for a potential rental would be bad. And yes I did just call Souray/Visnovsky’s contracts good. :P
Now if Khabibulin or Horcoff go the other way, I’d be happy to sweeten the pot a bit… especially if it’s Horcoff going the other way (don’t get me wrong, I like Horcoff, just dislike his contract like so many people do).
Visit www.puttingonthefoil.com
If I was the Oilers, nothing.
If I was a team with salary to get rid of, it would be a big salary guy, plus a shitload of prospects and picks. It’s worth it in the end.
If I’m New York, for example:
To New York: Ilya Kovalchuk and ATL 4th round pick
To Atlanta: Wade Redden, Daniel Girardi, Enver Lisin, NYR 1st round pick, NYR 2nd round pick
If I’m Chicago, for example:
To Chicago: Ilya Kovalchuk and ATL 3rd round pick
To Atlanta: Brian Campbell, Dustin Byfuglien, 1st round pick, 2nd round pick
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
@Last Post: assuming they had a plan to have the cash leftover to re-sign Kovalchuk.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Jan 11, 2010 6:56 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t think Atlanta is in a place to take back an albatross deal like that.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Why not?
Why not?
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Jan 11, 2010 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
They’re going to need to bring back some impact players either through this trade or through free agency in the off-season. If they soak up $7,000,000+ coming back it limits their ability to do so.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
They could also trade one of Hainsey or Enstrom, after picking up either Redden or Campbell. There would be a downgrade in defense but they could get a very very decent return for either Hainsey or Enstrom.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Jan 11, 2010 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
You must not watch many Rangers games
Redden has negative value right now, putting him in a deal actually would hurt the deal. I’d jump on Redden/Girardi/Lisin two picks and zero prospects as fast as humanly possible, but there’s no chance that’s good enough to get a deal done.
Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay
by George E. Ays on Jan 12, 2010 5:46 AM PST up reply actions
Also, because Falconer said so. See OP.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Cult
Also, how does one join the Cult of Hartikainen? I could possibly be his biggest fan.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Jan 11, 2010 7:02 PM PST up reply actions
There’s no way you’re his biggest fan. Ask Ben about it :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Thickoil is a pretty big fan too.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Jan 11, 2010 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
Interesting Kovalchuk 5v5 stats comparison with old man Kozlov
Kovalchuk 37gp
QualComp 1/13 hardest on team/60 +0.31 2/13
QualTeam – 1/13 best team mates
RelCorsi – -5.7, 9/13
PDO 1039 2/13
+/
Kozlov 43gp
QualComp – 2/13 2nd hardest on team
QualTeam – 13/13 worst team mates
RelCorsi – +9.2 2/13
PDO 961 13/13
+/-/60 -1.29 13/13
Poor Kozlov manages to drive the Corsi bus playing the best with the worst and gets a Horcoffian FU from the hockey gods.
Kovalchuk having a negative RelCorsi is a little disturbing since he’s asking for Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin money.
Giving him the big $$$ might be a mistake.
If that’s the case then Tambellini/Lowe will give away the farm to get exclusive negotiation rights and sign him for 90M for 10 seasons.
The stupid editor takes a double dash as a strikethrough code.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Kovalchuk having a negative RelCorsi is a little disturbing since he’s asking for Ovechkin/Crosby/Malkin money.
Falconer had a great look at Colby Armstrong over the summer.
If there is a Thrasher that deserves some attention – it’s Armstrong. And he’s a UFA this summer.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve mentioned this before with regard to QT but I don’t particularly trust it. It’s all based on Gabe’s relative +/- so, for example, the two “worst” forwards on the Oilers (i.e., if you play with these guys your QT goes down) are J.F. Jacques (yup) and Shawn Horcoff (maybe not so much). The two “worst” forwards on the Thrashers are Todd White and… Vyacheslav Kozlov. Which I find hard to believe considering the team employs guys like Eric Boulton and Chris Thorburn.
The same issues creep in to the QC rankings as well but for some reason I would think that it does a better job of evening out since a couple of guys getting killed by percentages will even out since you’ll only play each individual for very few minutes. With the QT rankings a couple of guys getting socked by the percentages can really throw things out of whack.
With regard to Kovalchuk, I think we can be pretty confident that he’s actually getting the tough matchups since any opposing coach is going to be keying on him. At best he’s getting second toughs if Anderson is an aggressive bench coach (I really don’t know). Kovalchuk’s outshooting numbers are certainly worrying for a guy getting big coin but his PDO has always been higher than average. If there was one guy I’d be willing to bet on to keep that PDO high it would be him simply because he takes so many of the shots when he’s on the ice and he’s been a good shooter his whole career. I think the bigger worry is likely his PP track record. He’s always gotten big minutes but hasn’t ever really been elite on a rate basis in terms of points, though some of that might be because he’s played some defence on the PP. I think “what is Kovalchuk’s real value?” is an interesting question. Not sure what I’d set it at.
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 11, 2010 11:58 PM PST up reply actions
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