Oilers Roundtable Part I - Quinn & Renney
In what we hope will become a regular feature, The Copper & Blue present the Fan Roundtable - a discussion with the esteemed men of Oilers Country.
Our lineup includes: the erudite Shepso, author of some of the most intellectual hockey writings - he plies his trade at Bringing Back The Glory; The venerable HBomb, frequent on-point commentor at Lowetide's place; the incisive Dawgbone, a frequent commentor all over the Oilers' 'sphere, who writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; the pragmatic Doogie2k, an excellent foil and a thought-provoking writer at Still No Name; and the hilarious Lord Bob, whose rapier wit is rarely matched in the 'sphere. Jonathan, Bruce and myself round out this merry band of brigands, obsessives, geeks, and puckheads.
1. How much of an impact will the hiring Pat Quinn and Tom Renney have on where the team finishes in the standings?
Shepso: This question is a really interesting one to answer, because in reality, I’m not altogether sure given the players on this roster. There are two keys to answering this question in my opinion.
First Point-There is one thing that I know for certain, and that’s Pat Quinn is a winner; it’s all he does, all he’s ever done. On separate occasions, both Lowetide and I have done fairly extensive profiles on the man’s success, and the bottom line is that the only thing he hasn’t won is Stanley. He’s very bright, speaks well(ish) and knows how to motivate the players around him. He’s also a bit of a stubborn mule when it comes to roster decisions, which may cause him to clash with the more even-keeled Renney on occasion.
This brings me to my next point-can they co-exist and build a winner? Even more uncertainty rests in this situation, given Quinn’s rep for building hard checking, gritty and up-tempo hockey vs. Renney’s traditional strength of tactics and defensive responsibility, not to mention getting more out of enigmatic, slightly underachieving Czech superstars than expected. So, at least on paper, these guys look like a pretty good tandem. If they can get along and combine the two approaches into a unified vision and, barring significant injury to either Shawn Horcoff or the Wall, this team should finish better than last year’s team, even without a roster upgrade before the deadline.
Hbomb: First off, I'm going to qualify my answer with the term "all things being equal" (i.e. no wild swings in shooting or save percentages at even strength). My guess is that the new coaching combination should be good for a 3-5 point increase, and my reasoning for that is an expected improvement in special teams. You'd think that to pick up a total of 15 goals worth of differential via more PP success and less PK hardships wouldn't be too much to ask, especially considering how mediocre (the PP) to awful (the PK) that the special teams were last season. The more interesting question will be trying to filter out bounce-back years from players and changes in the percentages at the end of the season to determine what the actual impact of Quinn and Renney was. Rest assured, if a bunch of guys have strong bounce-back seasons (Penner, Horcoff), while the kids take a leap forward (Gagner, Cogliano) and the Oilers somehow end up in sixth in the west with 98 points or thereabouts (what I'd consider a best case scenario), you'll hear the words "Pat Quinn" and "Jack Adams nomination" mentioned in the same sentence. Hey, considering the guy is an ex-Leaf coach, maybe the eastern media think they'll be giving us a break for that bogus Jason Blake Masterton nod in 2008 by voting Quinn the first Oiler coach as the coach of the year since Sather in 1986? But I digress. Let's see how it plays out first. Rest assured, I think the team should experience some improvement due to the coaching change. Craig MacTavish totally lost me in 2008-09, and given that he's still unemployed, well, maybe other NHL teams didn't think much of his body of work this past season either.
Dawgbone: Not much. Despite all the locker room chatter about how MacTavish lost the room, the fact of the matter is he was still doing a hell of a job at managing his lines and sheltering the right players while giving more responsibilities to others. From what we've read so far, Pat Quinn is going to be in charge of the forwards and he's pretty old school in that he doesn't match his lines much, except in late game situations. So whatever benefit there is to the players "buying into" the new system (aka executing at a level that resembles NHL calibre), is going to be offset by a lot of forwards who are in over their head far too often. Now if things somehow change and Renney gets a hold of the forwards, things could be a lot better. If the players buy in (aka execute), combined with proper line matching and this team has a chance at the playoffs. The biggest thing is going to be execution and players being able to handle their roles.
Doogie2k: Everything I know about Pat Quinn I learned from your Torontonian SBNation colleague, Julian of Pension Plan Puppets. It helps to know that his "struggles" with young players are greatly overstated, because we've got quite a few of them on the roster. Indeed, looking back, he was the first NHL coach for both Luc Robitaille and Pavel Bure, and neither of them were held back in any way that I can discern. According to his interviews with Dan Tencer, Quinn's basically used every offensive and defensive system ever conceived at one point in his coaching career, which I can actually kind of believe, considering he's been at this gig for most of the last thirty years. At first glance, the fact that he likes to roll four lines and keep his stars relatively rested during the season would seem to bode well for a guy like Shawn Horcoff, who damned near had his shoulders fall off last season due to Craig MacTavish's obsession with the chess game. For better or for worse, though, it also creates a bit of a sink-or-swim environment for a lot of the youngsters in the lineup. If Sam Gagner or Marc-Antoine Pouliot winds up out there against Jarome Iginla or Ryan Getzlaf, are they going to get completely worked from start to finish, or will they learn to hold their own? I think a good part of any improvement in the standings is going to come from whether the Quinney staff can get the most out of these kids, particularly those vying for the checking centre job (Pouliot, Gilbert Brule, maybe Patrick O'Sullivan) and get it more consistently, from the start of the season. If they can -- and all three men consider themselves teachers, so one would hope so -- then I think the team's record will reflect it.
The other consideration here is special teams. Special teams were, put bluntly, fucking awful last year. Quinn was able to run a balanced power play his last couple of years in Toronto, with Sundin working down low and Kaberle and McCabe controlling and blasting from up high, so we should hopefully see both Hemsky and Souray become more effective, as neither is forced to rely on their own personal bags of tricks too often. Tom Renney's Rangers had a solid PK (10th, 12th, 6th, 1st; never worse than 83.5% efficiency), and while some of that was undoubtedly due to Henrik Lundqvist being a consistent Vezina-calibre goalie, good goaltenders with bad defensive coverage still don't put up sparkling numbers; it's a team effort, as the old cliché goes, and hopefully one that includes shot-blocking again. Given that special teams, and in particular the PK, were massive Oiler weaknesses last year, one can only hope to see things get better from here.
Lord Bob: The move from MacTavish to Quinn is a little better than lateral. Both play favourites, both are a little too set in their ways, both have had problems relating to young players. MacTavish's greatest gift was turning fourth-line plugs into contributing pieces, whereas Quinn has always been able to extract the best from his superstars - a much less valuable skill on a team with far more plugs than superstars. Quinn and Renney come in with a clean slate and they certainly won't make MacTavish's infamous elementary mistakes, but a coach is a marginal part of a single season's standings anyway. Two points, maybe three.
Bruce: I expect significant improvement under Pat Quinn. He brings a (commanding) new voice in the room which will immediately get the attention and respect of every man on the team. Those who may have started to tune out Craig MacTavish, or who had personal issues with him, will get a fresh start. Moreover, they had better be paying attention! I anticipate a more motivated Oilers squad in '09-10, one which is more proactive in establishing the tempo of games. I also expect an improvement in team unity which seemed to be an issue in '08-09 on a team with two distinct age groups. It will be interesting to see how Quinn elevates the roles of maturing youngsters and reduces those of players with declining skills.
Quinn and his assistants Tom Renney and Wayne Fleming comprise one of the most broadly experienced coaching staffs the league has ever seen. Both Renney and Fleming are versatile coaches who have achieved their greatest successes in subordinate roles with Team Canada, so in theory they should easily adapt to similar roles here. Their expertise in the technical aspects of the game should have an impact on special teams, both of which need improvement.
In Quinn's first full year with his respective teams, the Flyers improved by 21 points; the Kings by 23; the Canucks by 31; the Leafs by 28. That's an astonishing record. I don't have quite such lofty expectations for his impact on the Oilers, but in that light an upgrade of 10 points seems downright conservative.
Derek: I think it depends on how the matchups are handled. If Quinn goes to his traditional management style, at least two lines (given the current roster makeup) are going to be overwhelmed by a tactician. The team is going to be in trouble at evens. However, the penalty kill can't be worse than it was last year and the power play has been mired in MacTavish mediocrity for years now. If he makes marginal improvements in those two areas, it will be a wash with the destruction at evens. If he realizes he has no choice but to ride Horcoff at even strength and improves special teams, this team is going to get a bump. How much of it is regression is up for debate, but line matching like last year to go with a 14th ranked penalty kill and a 14th ranked power play and the Oilers are a 6th place team.
Jonathan: A fair bit. I think Craig MacTavish did a fairly good job with an overmatched team at even-strength, but that there was some room for improvement, and I have a hard time picturing any of the incoming coaches doing a better job with the defense than Charlie Huddy did. That said, the powerplay has been bad for virtually MacTavish's entire tenure and the incoming coaching staff - in particular Wayne Fleming - should fix that. Additionally, there's some question as to whether the penalty-kill last year was influenced by poor coaching; I hope to see it rebound although I think they're still short on personnel. Ultimately, results will still be dictated by how young players move forward, but the coaching change should be a positive.
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coaching
Great stuff guys, a terrific idea. Don’t ask Lord Bob any geography questions though.
We had better hope that the coaches make a difference because if they don’t then this team is not going to be Scottish.
Personally I think that they will. The special teams will be better and I think enough players will benefit from a new voice that we’ll see improvement.
Crosses fingers
Special Teams
The penalty kill is one area that has nowhere to go but up, let’s just hope that they can tread water at evens.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ever seen Khabibulin’s PK numbers?
If there’s been a worse PK goalie in the NHL over the past 7 years, I haven’t seen him yet. I’m hesitant to think our PK will be much better.
PP I think will be better… I’m hoping Hemsky has learned to take the velcro off his ass and stop sticking to the half boards.
The problem is, I think a lot of it gets obliterated by the step back at ES I think we take.
Retort
Allow me to retort.
Did you see the Oilers PK last year? :)
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Indeed. It’s almost physically impossible for the Oilers to have a worse PK this year than last. Like, Quinn would have to rip open a hole in the fabric of space for the puck to travel directly from the point to the back of the net to make it worse. Even if Khabi’s SHSV% is kind of crap, I would think that difference would be more than made up for by not making so many stupid mistakes and getting back to the fundamentals of PK that were completely lacking last year.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
by Doogie2K on Sep 5, 2009 2:28 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Quinn would have to rip open a hole in the fabric of space for the puck to travel directly from the point to the back of the net to make it worse.
Outstanding.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The PK SV% thing Dawgbone mentions can be found here.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Sep 4, 2009 1:08 PM MDT up reply actions
This is a great section! I love it!
In my opinion, the caching change will do at least one thing, we wont see uninspired hockey anymore. Too many times last season we just gave up!! We will get to see more hustle from the players, a better forechecking system and more exciting brand of hockey. And hence I think Oilers09 version will be a better product!!!!!
In Quinn’s first full year with his respective teams, the Flyers improved by 21 points; the Kings by 23; the Canucks by 31; the Leafs by 28. That’s an astonishing record. I don’t have quite such lofty expectations for his impact on the Oilers, but in that light an upgrade of 10 points seems downright conservative.
this has a lot to do with percentages. (at least vancouver and toronto) – as mc79 points out
a 10 point increase will propell us to 95 points, good to be the 5th seed in the west!!! Which i think is a great thing
Lots of IFS
IF they maintain their ES performance, IF the PK is league average, IF they maintain that Svpct, IF they get a slight bump in the PP….
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Percentages
Trust Tyler to throw a wet blanket on any optimism. :)
The simplistic answer is that those teams improved their Points percentages very drastically indeed. But looking at the three first-year-Quinn teams for which shots data is available:
Team **** Shots +/- ** PDO * Pts%
Kings 83-84: (-68) *.981 * .369
Kings 84-85: (+123) * 1.001 ** .513
Canucks 90-91: (34) * .971 ** .406
Canucks 91-92: (367)* .999 ** .600
Leafs 97-98: (-72) * .987 *.421
Leafs 98-99: (-35) * 1.020 * .591
Oilers 2008-09 ** (-360) * 1.009 * .518
Different situations, different results. Obviously the MacT Oilers don’t suck as bad as Quinn’s prior projects which is one reason I was much more conservative in suggesting 10 points (and actually voted for 5-9 on the poll question). All of Quinn’s prior teams immediately and drastically improved their PDO the year he arrived (note: this is PDO in all situations, not just 5v5, and does not include ENGA). However they also improved their shots ratio from a little to a lot, an average of +187 per squad. Obviously it is in this second area where the Oilers need to improve; their PDO was already plenty decent. But I expect that -360 to be cut at least in half in 2009-10.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 4, 2009 9:43 AM MDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for that, Bruce.
Yeah, improvement from Quinn and Renney will come in the shots department, I think. In the previous three cases we see a team with a below-average PDO (PDO combines shooting percentage with save percentage) bounce back to normal range.
Still, in two of three cases we see a significant Corsi (shot differential) improvement, and the MacTavish Oilers have nowhere to go but up in that regard.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Sep 4, 2009 10:03 AM MDT up reply actions
10+ points
I’m a little shocked how many people are voting for this.
The Oilers may improve by ten points, but a lot of that will be natural development by young players; I simply can’t picture MacTavish/Huddy/Moores being so bad and Quinn/Renney/Fleming being so exceptional to gain that much ground all by themselves.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
Voting
It’s early – the optimistic morning people are casting votes. Wait for the late-to-rise grumpy nightfolk to roll in.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wrong
I was wrong – this is a REALLY optimistic crew.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I agree. I can see the Oilers improving by more than ten points if everything breaks their way, definitely, but it won’t be all coaching. It’ll be Khabi finding the old magic, the kids all taking a step forward, the top four continuing to be awesome, and the coaching staff improving the special teams/crafting a 3C out of whole cloth. Still, 5-9 points based on special teams alone isn’t entirely unreasonable, given how unfathomably bad the PK was last year. A change in PK% by 5% (27th to 11th, optimistic but not unreasonable) on 338 times shorthanded works out to ~17 GA difference on its own.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
10+
Jonathan, I am inclined to agree with you here. Despite Quinn’s remarkable, I mean truly remarkable stat of being able to coax a more than 20 point turnaround with every team he’s coached, that was in the pre-cap era. The game was different, there were fewer teams and less parity in the league, and the loser point did not yet exist. The Oilers Finished with 85 points last year. I would love to say this team is capable of getting into the 94-97 point range and slip into the playoffs, but 97 is really on the very high side of any reasonable expectations-92 is slightly more reasonable IMO.
The bottom line with this is much depends on what Derek alluded to: a lot of ifs. If the special teams improve, if the kids are alright, if the wall doesn’t come down, if Horcoff doesn’t get driven into the ground, if Poulie becomes a reasonable 3C… That’s a whole lot of speculation. I hope these “ifs” become certainties. Only time will tell if that can be the case.
that other regular writer for bringing back the glory...
Congrats on the Sub-Contracting!!
As a normally bitter fuckwad, I voted that the Oiler will improve by 10 points: Renney/Flemming’s expertise on special teams, Quinn’s new powerful voice, and as Lowetide says (paraphrasing of course) “Tambi ain’t done yet” or personal changes.
one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory
What 10+ points means
In Quinn’s first season:
-The Kings scored 30 more goals and slashed their goals against by 50.
-The Canucks scored 42 more goals and slashed their goals against by 65.
-The Maple Leafs scored 74 more goals and slashed their goals against by 6.
Does anyone really believe that the coaching staff, independent of other factors, can cause an 80 goal shift in a team’s performance? Heck, that would mean that fully 20% of the team’s on-ice output is directly controlled by coaching – and I don’t think that’s a reasonable number.
Quinn’s a good – even great – coach based on his career, but without looking at it closer I have to believe personnel changes were responsible for a good portion of that shift.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
80? No, that really doesn’t make sense. To compare with the subject of the book I’m reading right now, Roger Nielson:
1977 Leafs (Red Kelly): 301-279 (22), 81 pts
1978 Leafs (Nielson): 271-237 (34), 92 pts
Delta: +12, +11 pts
1980 Sabres (Scotty Bowman, Nielson assisting): 318-201 (117), 110 pts
1981 Sabres (Nielson): 327-250 (77), 99 pts
Delta: -40, -11 pts (ouch)
1989 Rangers (Michel Bergeron): 310-307 (3), 82 pts
1990 Rangers (Nielson): 279-267 (12), 85 pts
Delta: +9, +3 pts
If we toss in the change from the ‘82 to ’83 Canucks (-10, -2 pts), even a man generally regarded as an excellent coach, a pioneer, and a man who changed the way his teams played for the better didn’t fundamentally change their GD or point totals all that much his first year. That’s not to say he had no effect (the ‘78 Leafs went to the semis and got thumped by Montreal; the ’82 Canucks went on the Cinderella run; the ’92 Rangers on the President’s Trophy and were legit contenders), just that it didn’t show up entirely in the standings, all at once.
I dunno, maybe Scotty Bowman could have that effect. Let’s see:
1971 Habs (Claude Ruel): 291-216 (75), 97 pts
1972 Habs (Bowman): 307-205 (102), 108 pts
Delta: +27, +11 pts
1979 Sabres (Marcel Pronovost, Billy Inglis): 280-263 (17), 88 pts
1980 Sabres (Bowman): 318-201 (117), 110 pts
Delta: +100 (!), +12 pts
1991 Penguins (“Badger” Bob Johnson): 342-305 (37), 88 pts
1992 Penguins (Bowman): 343-308 (35), 87 pts
Delta: -2, -1 pts
1993 Red Wings (Bryan Murray): 369-280 (91), 103 pts
1994 Red Wings (Bowman): 356-275 (81), 100 pts
Delta: -10, -3 pts
An outlier in each, but in general, particularly looking at the older data when there was generally less player fluctuation between years, it doesn’t seem like even the highly-regarded coaches had tremendous impacts. It’s not very scientific, because I haven’t broken down roster moves or percentages, but I wonder if they weren’t the big driving forces behind the two weird years, concidentally one right after the other with the same team (Buffalo). Hmm…
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
Great Article
Nice article folks. Well done.
I didn’t realize until today that Quinn’s arrival coincided with such dramatic change in many of his teams:
The Kings scored 30 more goals and slashed their goals against by 50.
-The Canucks scored 42 more goals and slashed their goals against by 65.
-The Maple Leafs scored 74 more goals and slashed their goals against by 6.
Obviously, this can’t be all about coaching. There must be other factors including things like personnel and opponents. That said, I believe that the Oil have a number of things going for them that will improve their point standings and we may see this same dramatic change in the team:
a) new coaches means players refocus their efforts – i.e. no complacency – and MacT and the coaching staff were here for an unusually long time by today’s standards
b) the kids are maturing – and we have a lot of them on our roster
c) an offensive game may better suit our personnel’s skills and Quinn seems to support that game
d) an improvement in specialty teams is not an unreasonable expectation
e) there are no longer any “sacred cows” on the team, which may lead to positive player moves
f) there were so many underachievers last year, that on statistical odds alone we should see an increase in average achievement by player
I think the biggest factor will be system and personnel fit. MacT simply did not have the team to fit his systems – too many kids, not enough grit. MacT was no dummy. His “owning” of Detroit in the 2006 playoffs was truly masterful. But he was a defense first guy. He and KLo simply weren’t on the same page. One was building the 1980’s Oilers, while the other was devising systems for the pre-CBA post-Glory Days Oilers. When Pronger, Gator, Greene, Peca, Reasoner et al left, the were replaced more often than not by kids or softer skill guys. MacT couldn’t execute his systems with the personnel he had, hence the frustration and the tension of 2008/9.
I think the Oilers will place 6th in the conference if Quinney are more able to execute the skill game than MacT. It’s that simple. If this is possible 10 points is not out of the question.
by MrOiler on Sep 4, 2009 12:18 PM MDT reply actions 1 recs
Regression
f) there were so many underachievers last year, that on statistical odds alone we should see an increase in average achievement by player
That, no doubt, gets lost in the shuffle. The single biggest point of recovery will likely be regression. But it could affect this team negatively as well, especially with Souray.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But it could affect this team negatively as well, especially with Souray.
Hush, you.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
Shhhh
Yeah, I don’t want to wake slumbering giants…
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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