Springfield Falcons Quality of Competition Update

As regular readers know, earlier this year I devised a scheme for calculating the quality of competition that players in the AHL were facing.  It involved looking at who was on the ice for goal events, and assigning them a rating based on their total points.  I did this work manually for the Springfield Falcons - those rankings and the method behind them can be found here

Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net fame has done me one better.  He's run my formula with some slight modifications (explained after the jump) and he's done it for the entire AHL.  Desjardins was nice enough to send a copy my way, and what follows below is his list, with this summer's additions (Minard, Arsene, Brennan) added in for good measure.

The changes Desjardins made to my formula were as follows:

  1. He used only 5v5 scoring for his player ratings (whereas I had used total scoring)
  2. He added in defensemen as well as forwards
  3. He ran the entire season in one go, whereas I had done it in two attempts
  4. He used a computer, so naturally the human error portion of these rankings drops significantly

I'm not certain that scoring reflects quality for defensemen as well as it does for forwards, but other than that Desjardins' rankings should be improved in quality, and they certainly reflect an improvement in comprehensiveness. 

Forwards

  1. Liam Reddox: .309
  2. Tim Sestito: .295
  3. Tyler Spurgeon: .286
  4. *Chris Minard: .283
  5. Ryan Stone: .281
  6. Colin McDonald: .281
  7. Derek Bekar: .279
  8. Guillaume Lefebvre: .278
  9. Ryan Potulny: .270
  10. Vyacheslav Trukhno: .270
  11. Gilbert Brule: .268
  12. Carl Corazzini: .267
  13. Geoff Paukovich: .264
  14. Jordan Eberle: .263
  15. Charles Linglet: .260  
  16. Bryan Lerg: .259
  17. Rob Schremp: .253 
  18. Ryan O'Marra: .250 
  19. Shane Willis: .246
  20. *Kip Brennan: .245

Thoughts:

  • People who remain confused about Liam Reddox's elevation to the big club should know that this is one of the biggest reasons why.  He's a superior player at the AHL level in every way.
  • The Oilers seem to have acquired a very decent player in Minard, who did a fine job outscoring quality competition last year.  We haven't really talked about Minard as a challenger for a roster spot, but it's worth remembering that he's played 35 games for Pittsburgh over the past two seasons (20 last year), and adds some size (6'1", 200lbs).  He'll challenge for a role on this team. 
  • I hope Brennan's a way more effective fighter than Guillaume Lefebvre, because everything I've seen indicates that Lefebvre's the superior player.
  • There are a lot of guys in the mix for fourth line roles, and while Brule seems ordained to get a job he will have to fight off Minard, Stone, Potulny and Reddox in camp.  Rob Schremp's in there somewhere too, but probably near the bottom of that list.

Defensemen

  1. Theo Peckham: .286
  2. Taylor Chorney: .279
  3. Mathieu Roy: .275
  4. Cody Wild: .274
  5. Bryan Young: .266
  6. *Dean Arsene: .264
  7. Ryan Constant: .262
  8. Rob Bina: .259
  9. Mike Gabinet: .254
  10. Sebastien Bisaillon: .245

Thoughts:

  • This is one of the biggest reasons I'm so bullish on Peckham.  He's already playing against guys who are close to NHL-calibre, and he brings those other things (size, but more importantly nastiness) that are coveted in defensemen.
  • Taylor Chorney improves a fair bit by Desjardins' count, which does help explain his struggles last year.  Still there isn't much separation between him, Wild and Roy.
  • I'm hesitant to put Arsene this low in the rankings; it's always a little perilous to compare guys across teams and anecdotal evidence would suggest that he should be in the group right after Peckham.
  • With the possible exception of the 6'3" Gabinet, I don't really see the bottom three players on this list as AHL'ers.
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