Springfield Falcons Quality of Competition Update
As regular readers know, earlier this year I devised a scheme for calculating the quality of competition that players in the AHL were facing. It involved looking at who was on the ice for goal events, and assigning them a rating based on their total points. I did this work manually for the Springfield Falcons - those rankings and the method behind them can be found here.
Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net fame has done me one better. He's run my formula with some slight modifications (explained after the jump) and he's done it for the entire AHL. Desjardins was nice enough to send a copy my way, and what follows below is his list, with this summer's additions (Minard, Arsene, Brennan) added in for good measure.
The changes Desjardins made to my formula were as follows:
- He used only 5v5 scoring for his player ratings (whereas I had used total scoring)
- He added in defensemen as well as forwards
- He ran the entire season in one go, whereas I had done it in two attempts
- He used a computer, so naturally the human error portion of these rankings drops significantly
I'm not certain that scoring reflects quality for defensemen as well as it does for forwards, but other than that Desjardins' rankings should be improved in quality, and they certainly reflect an improvement in comprehensiveness.
Forwards
- Liam Reddox: .309
- Tim Sestito: .295
- Tyler Spurgeon: .286
- *Chris Minard: .283
- Ryan Stone: .281
- Colin McDonald: .281
- Derek Bekar: .279
- Guillaume Lefebvre: .278
- Ryan Potulny: .270
- Vyacheslav Trukhno: .270
- Gilbert Brule: .268
- Carl Corazzini: .267
- Geoff Paukovich: .264
- Jordan Eberle: .263
- Charles Linglet: .260
- Bryan Lerg: .259
- Rob Schremp: .253
- Ryan O'Marra: .250
- Shane Willis: .246
- *Kip Brennan: .245
Thoughts:
- People who remain confused about Liam Reddox's elevation to the big club should know that this is one of the biggest reasons why. He's a superior player at the AHL level in every way.
- The Oilers seem to have acquired a very decent player in Minard, who did a fine job outscoring quality competition last year. We haven't really talked about Minard as a challenger for a roster spot, but it's worth remembering that he's played 35 games for Pittsburgh over the past two seasons (20 last year), and adds some size (6'1", 200lbs). He'll challenge for a role on this team.
- I hope Brennan's a way more effective fighter than Guillaume Lefebvre, because everything I've seen indicates that Lefebvre's the superior player.
- There are a lot of guys in the mix for fourth line roles, and while Brule seems ordained to get a job he will have to fight off Minard, Stone, Potulny and Reddox in camp. Rob Schremp's in there somewhere too, but probably near the bottom of that list.
Defensemen
- Theo Peckham: .286
- Taylor Chorney: .279
- Mathieu Roy: .275
- Cody Wild: .274
- Bryan Young: .266
- *Dean Arsene: .264
- Ryan Constant: .262
- Rob Bina: .259
- Mike Gabinet: .254
- Sebastien Bisaillon: .245
Thoughts:
- This is one of the biggest reasons I'm so bullish on Peckham. He's already playing against guys who are close to NHL-calibre, and he brings those other things (size, but more importantly nastiness) that are coveted in defensemen.
- Taylor Chorney improves a fair bit by Desjardins' count, which does help explain his struggles last year. Still there isn't much separation between him, Wild and Roy.
- I'm hesitant to put Arsene this low in the rankings; it's always a little perilous to compare guys across teams and anecdotal evidence would suggest that he should be in the group right after Peckham.
- With the possible exception of the 6'3" Gabinet, I don't really see the bottom three players on this list as AHL'ers.
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Flames
The Flames don’t have any prospects anyway.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
JW: Trying to get my head around what the numbers themselves actually represent. The range is very small, just .245 to .309 for the entire team, kinda like batting averages or something. What is the “real” separation between Peckham’s .286 and Bisaillon’s .245?
Writer for The Copper & Blue
I’m not sure; the numbers are slightly different than what I came up with so I’m not 100% sure if Desjardins was using discrete steps or integration. Fortunately, Gabe also included what percentile each player lands in as an AHL’er. Unfortunately, as with his NHL QualComp, different teams seem to have different ranges.
In Springfield’s case, Liam Reddox’s .309 represents the 100th percentile – the top 1% of players in the AHL. Shane Willis’ .246 represents the 52nd percentile. In other words – while the size of the actual numbers may be small, we’re talking a very significant drop-off.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 30, 2009 12:45 PM MDT up reply actions
Trukhno
Wow, so Trukhno played tougher minutes than Brule and Schremp and outscored both of them at evens.
And people think Brule should have a shot at the big club this year?
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I have to admit I was a little shocked by Brule’s numbers.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 30, 2009 12:46 PM MDT up reply actions
Schremp-Brule
If this doesn’t convince you [collective] that Schremp is gone, I don’t know what will.
Brule’s numbers are awful and I don’t see how he can be in the conversation for camp. If Schremp fell into an elevator shaft, Brule fell down an escalator.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Brule’s in the conversation for camp because the Oilers say he is.
And I’d totally forgotten about Slava Trukhno.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
Falcons EV/PP Scoring Splits
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 30, 2009 1:01 PM MDT reply actions
I’ve found minor some discrepancies in the Flames numbers, assuming I’m reading the columns correctly. For example, Kyle Greentree is listed as having scored 11 ES goals and 16 PP goals last year…except he actually potted 39. Now, I know EN and SH goals are excluded, but that’s a 12 goal gap.
In addition, the QC Flames range is extremely limited – to the degree that it doesn’t really tell me anything. The top QUAL COMP faced by QC last year was 0.26, while the bottom was 0.22. With the exception of a few outliers, nearly every player was either 0.24 or 0.23. Either McGill just ran all 4 lines continuously and without regard for match-ups or the process needs some tweaking.
It also excludes 4v4 and 5v3 and 6v4 and 6v5 situations. Still, in the TOTG column, Desjardins’ has Greentree listed as having scored 35 goals, which is better but still short. Odd.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 30, 2009 1:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Yeah…I can’t make heads or tails of it. The other players seem to be within range, but the numbers don’t add up for Greentree at all.
Also – the QC Flames were really pretty bad last year apparently.

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