An Amicus Brief In Support of Dustin Penner, Part IV -- Conclusion
by Derek Zona on Aug 26, 2009 5:00 PM MDT
in Analysis
Email
PrintBrief of The Copper & Blue as Amicus Ludus In Support of Dustin Penner for Playing on the First Line, Part I.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Traditional Stats
3. Power Play
4. Microstats
5. Conclusion
1. Introduction
The Edmonton Oilers failed to make the playoffs for the third straight year in 2008-2009. Craig MacTavish, an ineffective and overmatched coach for the entire season, unfairly used Dustin Penner as a scapegoat throughout the year. Because MacTavish was outcoached by virtually the entire league, Penner was made to suffer, when in fact, he should have been on the first line for the entire season, playing with Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky. Three seperate sets of statistics confirm the above argument.
5. Conclusion
No matter the type of statistic used to analyze Dustin Penner's performance over the last two years, the fact remains clear that he has been a superior performer, especially on the first line. His effect on his teammates is marked, and his effect on special teams is noticeable. Below is a summary of each of the three types of statistics analyzed for this brief.
A. Traditional Stats
On the first line, Penner's season equivalency is 24G-32A-56P, a rate that puts him 20th in goals and 21st in points among left wings for the '08-'09 season.
Over a full season, the "Horpensky" line is the 3rd most productive goal scoring line in the Western Conference: Marleau - Thornton - Setoguchi - 94
Hossa - Datsyuk - Holmstrom - 86
Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky - 86
In '08-'09, Hemsky suffered a .5 PPG falloff and Horcoff falls by .4 PPG without Penner on the port side. From the two-year average, Hemsky was off by .36 PPG and Horcoff by .43 PPG. Over the course of a season, that amounts to 30 fewer points per season for Hemsky, and 35 fewer points per season for Horcoff.
B. Power Play
Penner outpaced all other forwards for the Edmonton Oilers and the power play was most productive when he was on the ice. Only Ales Hemsky gets similar numbers out of his time on the ice with a man advantage. in 07-08, the Oilers lost Sheldon Souray to injury. The power play did not focus on shots by defensemen, rather it was a more distributed system amongst the forwards. Dustin Penner produced 22 power play points and a GFON/60 of 7.13. In 08-09, in a system where the puck was distributed to the defensemen, Penner's traditional production slumped, but the team was just as effective while he was on the ice due to his play low in the offensive zone.
C. Microstats
Ales Hemsky suffers a .5 even strength goals for per game falloff when not on the ice with Dustin Penner.
Hemsky without Dustin Penner scores, at even strength, at the same rate as Richard Park and Blake Comeau of the New York Islanders. With Dustin Penner, Hemsky scores at a rate similar to Sidney Crosby.
Over each of the last two seasons there are only three forwards with a better even strength scoring rate than Ales Hemsky while Dustin Penner is on the ice. Those men are Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin.
Shawn Horcoff suffers a .3 even strength goals for per game falloff when not on the ice with Dustin Penner.
Horcoff without Dustin Penner scores, at even strength, at the same rate as David Perron and Pascal Dupuis. With Dustin Penner, Hemsky scores at a rate similar to Johan Franzen and Martin St. Louis.
Over each of the last two seasons there are only nine forwards with a better even strength scoring rate than Shawn Horcoff while Dustin Penner is on the ice. Those men are Jason Arnott, Nicklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, Ales Hemsky with Dustin Penner, Jarome Iginla, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, and Corey Perry.
In 2008-2009, the Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky line appeared in 39 games together (this does not mean that they played the entire game together). During that time, the line scored 21 ES goals and gave up 5 ES goals. For the rest of the season, when playing together on a line without Dustin Penner, Horcoff and Hemsky scored 14 ES goals and gave up 17 ES goals.
In those 39 games, the Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky outshot the opponent 174-110 (+64). Without Dustin Penner, the Horcoff-Hemsky line was outshot 208-222 (-14).
When measuring scoring chances for and scoring chances against, Dustin Penner had the largest differential on the team, and outpaces those with similar defensive loads. Penner leads the Edmonton Oilers in scoring chances for while on the ice for the power play, besting noted power play ace Ales Hemsky.
On the current version of the Edmonton Oilers, Dustin Penner acts as a catalyst. Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky are outstanding players, but when they are on a line with Dustin Penner, they perform as one of the best lines in the league. Penner's own body of work is not superstar-like on the surface, but a deeper look into the numbers and the numbers of his teammates shows that there is a reaction when he's on the ice. His size creates space for his linemates by attracting the attention of the defense and allows Horcoff and Hemsky to move more freely in the offensive zone. His presence in front of the net makes the power play more effective by screening the goalie during the Oilers point-heavy attack as well as keeping the defensemen lower in the zone and giving Ales Hemsky space to create opportunities. His ability to battle on the boards and hold the pick in deep takes the puck handling workload off of Ales Hemsky and creates more scoring opportunities than any other Oiler.
The statistics used in the first three parts of this brief lead to one indisputable fact: the Edmonton Oilers are a stunningly better team when Dustin Penner steps onto the ice with the first line.
14 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I’ve been defending Penner on various fronts (HFBoards, Oilers Board, Lowetide, Oilersnation, my blog…) for a while now. Good to see some more stats out there to support the argument that he is a valuable contributer to the team, despite what MacTavish says. Now that said, MacTavish was right on occasion to question Penner’s drive (although perhaps the delivery of such comments were inappropriate). But one thing is for certain, no matter where they threw him last year, he made his linemates better. It’s obvious he creates open ice for his linemates.
I’d really like to see Penner on line 2 if we don’t pick up another big body somewhere (and only for that reason). But I would very much be content with him on the top line too. I think post-MacT we’re finally going to see some offense out of this team, and Penner will be one of the guys who will thrive under Quinn’s coaching.
Visit www.puttingonthefoil.com
Reference
If you’d ever like reference material, here are all four parts in one place.
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Quinn/Renney Emails
Any chance somebody could hunt down these guys emails and forward this great analysis on to the coaches?
That Hemsky scoring comparison is wholly unfair. Same for Horcoff.
I think the with and without stats regarding Penner are extremely misleading as I outlined over at IOF a few weeks ago. (I couldn’t wait any longer!!!) Three reasons:
- The roles change when these players are apart. It is crazy for Horcoff, but not far off for Hemsky either – MacT was training him to be a real player, not a poacher.
- The Horpensky line has had unsustainable percentages, even accounting for the fact that they should be over 100% (SV+SH) anyway. The SV% last year is just nuts and there’s no reasonable explanation for Penner affecting that in a positive manner.
- The dropoff on LW after Penner has been pretty substantial. The sample size on Cole was too small and the rest of them have sucked for the most part.
I think the only reasonable conclusions are that A) Penner is the best LW option the Oilers have (snicker) and B) He’s OK there. I don’t see anything to suggest he’s a difference maker and actually he was a bit of a drag in terms of underlying stats in 07/08.
1) The roles changed for Penner when separated from the first line as well. He played all three forward positions and on all four lines. He had time playing on the right side with an also-out-of-position Pisani and Moreau on a putative shutdown line; he played on the fourth line with Brodziak and Stortini; overall he played the same QualComp as Hemsky but with a much lower QualTeam.
2) Agreed a .955 Sv% is unlikely to be repeated. Let’s assume that the goalies let in 9% of the shots instead of 4.5%, resulting in a (subpar) EV Sv% of .910. The line’s results would still be a very impressive +21/-10. You can’t just handwave it all away to percentages.
3) The sample size on Cole was all of October, during which Hemsky scored zero goals and was a minus player. So as a LW, you’re welcome to include Cole among those who have sucked. Over the season (mostly October) the Cole/Hemsky duo combined for an underwhelming +2/-6 in just under 100 minutes. They got thumped. Of the others, Nilsson was marginally OK, and Moreau, Reddox et al were not up to the task. Penner was BY FAR the best option.
Not sure of your definition of a “difference maker”, but Hemsky and Horcoff sure put up different results playing with than without Penner.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 27, 2009 10:50 AM MDT up reply actions
1) That wasn’t a shutdown line and the faceoffs tell a different story about how they were used.. Furthermore, the replacements on LW were poor.
2) I don’t know if you recall this Bruce but Penner has played two years for the Oilers. The whole picture is less flattering and it’s not just handwaving.
3) Under 100 min? Good grief. I think you’ve made my point about Cole. Penner being the best option has a lot to do with a really shitty group of replacements.
Your last comment is absurd – the point is that the numbers are skewed by the situations and in actual fact there’s very little solid repeatable results to support that Penner is anything more than acceptable.
by RiversQ on Aug 27, 2009 4:20 PM MDT via mobile up reply actions
More absurdities
1) In reality it certainly wasn’t a shutdown line but if the point of moving Pisani into the middle wasn’t to have a veteran presence at 3C, then what was the point? Sorry, a year later I don’t remember match-ups and such and am too lazy to look them up. As for the replacements at 1LW being poor, we agree absolutely. Penner is by far the best choice.
2) Penner has played two years, his second and third full seasons in the NHL. As might be epected, he certainly improved in 2008-09, although his boxcars went down largely due to lower powerplay production and PP TOI, which I put directly on MacT. But in his first two years he has the second most Goals on the Oilers and the most PowerPlay Goals, and that’s not just handwaving either.
3) If you were the coach, how many minutes would you have given Cole-Hemsky? They got a month, nearly 100 minutes, and didn’t get it done. Penner moved in on Nov. 1 and Hemsky instantly got hot.
*
Here’s another absurd comment for you, Rivers, supported by some truly absurd statistics. According to Vic’s numbers, in 2007-08 when all three of 10-27-83 were on the ice together, they went +20/-11 for a goals ratio of 1.82:1, a shots ratio of 1.20:1, a Corsi ratio of 1.14:1, and an “unrepeatable” PDO of 1.040. In 2008-09 they did even better, +21/-5 for a goals ratio of 4.20:1 — now THAT’s unsustainable — a shots ratio of 1.58, a Corsi ratio of 1.64, and a PDO of 1.076. The trio’s results from the first year, impressive as they were, were not only repeatable, they improved — significantly — right across the board.
Looking at the two year totals, it’s interesting, nay astonishing to compare Horpensky vs. the three players in all other situations:
*************** GF:GA * SF:SA * Corsi **** Sh%ON * Sv%ON ** PDO
-——————————————————————————————————————-
10-27-83 unit * 2.56 **** 1.37 **** 1.36 **** 12.06% **** .935 **** 1.056
10 otherwise * 0.78 ** 0.86 **** 0.83 ****** 7.24% **** .920 **** 0.992
27 otherwise * 0.78 ** 0.92 **** 0.93 ****** 7.30% **** .914 **** 0.987
83 otherwsie * 0.74 ** 0.88 **** 0.90 ****** 6.73% **** .919 **** 0.987
All three guys did WAY better — as in a goal differential well over three times as good — when they were on the ice as a unit than any other even strength situation (including any combination of 2 of the 3 but not all 3). In fact all three posted subpar ratios in all categories when playing apart, while 10-27-83 was dominant in all categories. The differences are stunning.
A final note: this is not an argument in favour of Dustin Penner so much as it’s an argument in favour of the unfortunately-named Horpensky. All three of these guys play better when together. I don’t know how you could look at the foregoing, plus all of Derek’s work, and conclude otherwise.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 27, 2009 8:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Bruce, you’re still ignoring the context.
Anyway, I fully agree that Penner’s the best option, and I agree he’s an effective player. However, I take issue with that being extended to hyperbolic conclusions.
There’s a narrative that has been established here and I don’t accept it. There is most definitely a middle ground on Penner and that’s where the data takes me.
You mean hyperbolic conclusions like “all three of these guys play better when together”? Boy, that’s a stretch on my part. I must be missing a whole lot of context that explains why, over two full seasons, Ales Hesmky has gone +41/-16 = +25 when playing with those two specific linemates at even strength and +45/-61 = -16 in all other situations. The other guys’ splits are nearly as extreme. And yet that data leads you to a middle ground? Please explain.
In other news, black is white.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 28, 2009 3:25 AM MDT up reply actions
Conclusions
What hyperbolic conclusion has been extended?
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Frankly, it’s riddled with them. How the whole piece could be done without looking at the simple stuff I posted at IOF boggles my mind. The fact that there’s no balance in the argument probably satisfied the Republican/Democrat contingent, but has me convinced you’re not arguing in good faith.
Like I said earlier – the Horcoff/Hemsky ES scoring without Penner statements without mentioning the context is an utter misrepresentation of reality. It’s basically what you rightly ridiculed The Puck Stops Here about a few weeks ago.
Overall, some of this is glass half full/empty too. As JW said, we agree on the main points but disagree on the extrapolation to the makeup of the club. I think the top six sucks and contains just three players that fit the bill. I don’t see any reason why the Oilers would not want to improve their wings and if that means displacing Penner with a player of Heatley’s calibre or some other then so be it.
by RiversQ on Aug 29, 2009 4:38 AM MDT via mobile up reply actions
Conclusion
Frankly, it’s riddled with them
The conclusion I repeatedly made was that Hemsky and Horcoff are outstanding players with Penner.
What other “hyperbolic” conclusions were extended?
Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t see anything crazy about RiversQ’s conclusions here.
We all agree, it seems, that Penner with Hemsky/Horcoff is the best solution for the current lineup. We also all agree that he’s an effective player.
We haven’t all stated it explicitly but I think we could agree that Penner’s also a pretty good powerplay option in a specific role.
On the other hand, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say the Penner’s as much a beneficiary as he is an asset. He’s an outscorer, which is good, and the line prevents goals, which is good, but his offense (specifically PTS/60) has never been great at evens and I don’t think it’s good enough to make him a bonafide difference-maker.
Horcoff and Hemsky are very good players. Penner’s a good player.
At least, that’s how I see it.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 28, 2009 11:35 AM MDT reply actions
We haven’t all stated it explicitly but I think we could agree that Penner’s also a pretty good powerplay option in a specific role.
Derek and I have been hollering from the highest hillsides since, oh, about five minutes after Burke officially declined to match, that Penner shouldn’t be a powerplay “option” but a fixture, in a Very specific role. Namely, with his big blue butt fixed in the goalie’s face. It’s not all about scoring goals or touching the puck, Souray alone must have scored 10 through Penner screen last year. Penner has ranked 2nd (7.13) and 1st (6.88) among all Oilers in PPGF ON/60 in the two seasons he’s been here. For some reason, MacT cut his ice time by a third, and our PP production that had been awesome down the stretch in ‘07-08, went south. To me, that alone was almost a firing offence: MacTavish (seemed to) let his personal animosities get in the way of the team. Why punish the guy in an area where he’s producing? Inbloodysane.
On the other hand, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say the Penner’s as much a beneficiary as he is an asset. He’s an outscorer, which is good, and the line prevents goals, which is good, but his offense (specifically PTS/60) has never been great at evens and I don’t think it’s good enough to make him a bonafide difference-maker.
As I said a few comments back, depends on how you define the term “difference maker”. In terms of their effects on each others’ stats, all three of them are huge difference makers. +25 when all together 5v5, -12 (Horcoff), -13 (Penner) and -16 (Hemsky) under opther circumstances. Looks like a difference of about 40 goals to me. :p
Horcoff and Hemsky are very good players. Penner’s a good player.
When they play as a line, Horcoff and Hemsky are outstanding players, Penner’s an excellent player. My point remaining much more about the line than it is about Penner. But when the question is basically framed “who’s the best LW to play with Horc and Hemmer?”, that directs the conversation towards Dustin specifically. Personally, I’m much less interested in what’s good for Dustin than in what’s good for the Oilers. But as I see it, Dustin is good for the Oilers, especially in this particular role. He is an outstanding complementary player, as is Horcoff, and this enables Hemsky to shine. Only Pisani belongs in the same conversation with 10 and 27 as a complementary player, a guy who can fit in on any line because he thinks the game well and has a strong all around game.
Unless you think the goals, shots, Corsi, and PDO differentials over two full seasons are all lying to us, in which case why do we even look at the stupid things? Statistically speaking this is an ironclad case for these guys to remain the 1 Line for the foreseeable. My eyes agree with this conclusion. I’m very, very happy with that trio as our front line. We pay them to produce, and when they’re together, they have defintiely Produced. Why f*** around with that?
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 28, 2009 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Northwest Standings
Oilers Schedule
Next 5 Games
Toronto
|
Wed 02/15 | 8:00 PM MST |
|
Colorado
|
Fri 02/17 | 7:30 PM MST |
|
Vancouver
|
Sun 02/19 | 7:00 PM MST |
|
@
Calgary
|
Tue 02/21 | 7:00 PM MST |
|
Philadelphia
|
Thu 02/23 | 7:30 PM MST |
Last 5 Games
|
@
Ottawa
|
Sat 02/11 | OT - W 4 - 3 |
|
@
Detroit
|
Wed 02/08 | L 2 - 4 |
|
@
Toronto
|
Mon 02/06 | L 3 - 6 |
|
Detroit
|
Sat 02/04 | SO - W 5 - 4 |
|
Chicago
|
Thu 02/02 | W 8 - 4 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- The Chicago Blackhawks’ losing streak is bad for everybody
- According to NHL, here’s why Dominic Moore escaped suspension for Fedotenko hit
- How Mats Sundin’s no-trade clause controversy made fans reconsider loyalty in NHL
- Nordiques Nation invades Hockey Day in Canada
- Youth hockey coach, parents clash over alleged tirade over 9-year old’s 200th goal puck
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
