Shot Distance vs. Shooting Percentage

by Jonathan Willis on Aug 18, 2009 1:20 PM MDT in Analysis

The chart above is the 5-on-5 shooting percentage vs. shot distance data for every NHL forward who appeared in more than 20 games last season and averaged more than ten minutes per game (courtesy of BehindtheNet).

Unsurprisingly, the trend line shows that players who wait until they're closer to the net to shoot have a better shooting percentage as a general rule. What was a little surprising is how outlying the outliers were.

Blue Jackets fans might want to note that the top player on this list is Derick Brassard. I've ceased making predictions about shooting percentage sustainability for rookies (Andrew Cogliano taught me that) but it is worth noting.

The same chart, using only wrist shots, shows a very similar pattern:

The outliers in this case are even more erratic; it seems to me that it's likely a result of sample size.

The one thing I have concluded: any attempt at measuring shot quality must not know where a shot was taken from and what type of shot it was, but also who was doing the shooting. There are massive variations in shooting percentage between players who generally are the same distance from the net when they fire; variations much larger than I would have expected to see.

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The one thing I have concluded: any attempt at measuring shot quality must not know where a shot was taken from and what type of shot it was, but also who was doing the shooting.

But do we, really? I haven’t dug through detailed Shot Quality stuff in a couple years (on my lengthy to-do list), but I recall some studies that seemed to indicate that the distribution by shooter was pretty random, and that outperformers in one year tended to get lumped back into the mix the next, etc. In other words, there were very few guys who consistently outscored their expectations year after year, no more than a handful.

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On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.

by Dirk Hoag on Aug 18, 2009 10:02 PM MDT reply actions

From what I’ve read that certainly does happen, but for the most part you have guys like Tanguay, Brunette, Kovalchuk and Heatley who are just good at this every year. Or guys like Ovechkin who are consistently mediocre in SH%.

I think the trick is in looking at career SH% and adjusting for it, rather than season-by-season SH%.

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by Jonathan Willis on Aug 19, 2009 8:18 AM MDT up reply actions

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