Defensive Depth: An "Embarrassment of Riches" or Overrated?
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 14, 2009 7:30 AM PDT
in Analysis
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Oilers' GM Steve Tambellini was recently interviewed by 630 CHED's Dan Tencer, and the following clip caught my notice:
Steve Tambellini: "...That's the strength of our hockey club, and we're weighted to that side right now. I know Pat and Tom and Kelly right now are excited to see these guys healthy and on the ice and see what they look like under this system. You can argue with some areas of our hockey club, but the depth of our D right now with Strudwick and Peckham filling in on the bottom end, and Chorney coming and some of these other kids that are coming - there's good depth there.
Dan Tencer: "I would say it's an embarrasment of riches actually. You've got guys like Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney who probably are 6 or 7 guys right now - certainly Theo Peckham is a number 7 guy, or capable of being a number 7 guy. You throw Strudwick in, we haven't even talked about Staios... there are 8 or 9 guys who could potentially play NHL games with a lot of teams and not look out of place.
Both, I think, are overrating the Oilers' depth defenders.
- Lubomir Visnovsky
- Sheldon Souray
- Tom Gilbert
- Denis Grebeshkov
- Ladislav Smid
- Steve Staios
- Jason Strudwick
- Theo Peckham
- Taylor Chorney
Let's have a look at the bottom five players on that list.
Ladislav Smid
A lot depends on how an individual views Ladislav Smid. Many fans view him as top-four ready right now, but I think a view closer to reality is that, as he is, he's a bottom-pairing defenseman. According to Behind the Net, Smid played the sixth-best opposition with the sixth-best linemates among Oilers defensemen. Unlike the top four guys (who ranged between +5.8 and -3.5 in Corsi/60) , Smid was getting buried (-13.4 Corsi/60). His -5 rating was earned. Now, he's also a young guy who brings size and a physical dimension, plus he's getting into those years where he makes a difference, but as it stands he's a third-pairing guy until he shows otherwise.
Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.
Steve Staios
I don't think Staios has a snowball's chance in hell of covering his cap hit, but I think that's probably covered my perception of his performance. I'm not even sure he shouldn't be above Smid on the depth chart. HockeyAnalysis.com gives us an idea of his performance with different defense partners that I think is illuminating (I've multiplied the numbers by 3 to get a per/60 ratio):
- 510:27 with Souray: 2.59 GFON/60 - 1.88 GAON/60 = +0.71 +/- per 60
- 407:18 with Smid: 1.77 GFON/60 - 2.36 GAON/60 = -0.59 +/- per 60
- 278:48 with Strudwick: 1.08 GFON/60 - 2.80 GAON/60 = -1.72 +/- per 60
I think that's a revealing chart. The Staios/Strudwick pairing was an absolute disaster; one of the enduring mysteries about last season was the sheer volume of positive press that Strudwick got from people connected to the team. To my eye he wasn't overly effective, and the numbers are vicious. Staios/Smid weren't great, but they weren't bad either. And before everybody jumps aboard the Staios/Souray bandwagon, the only reason their numbers are so good is because of an incredible .945 on-ice save percentage when together; their Corsi number was a less than spectacular -72.
Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.
Jason Strudwick
I suppose I tipped my hand above when I talked about the mystery of the Oilers' love for Jason Strudwick. He lucked out with a nice on-ice save percentage, but he bled shots against all year and made every defensive tandem he was on worse. I thought he was better in his brief cameo as a left wing. His Corsi/60 number (-14.8) was the worst among Oilers' regulars, and he lucked out to some extent with solid on-ice save percentage (.932) and shooting percentage (8.4%) numbers.
He faced soft competition and still struggled to hold his own. I don't mind him as the seldom-used depth defenseman, but I think it's a stretch to say that he's ready for a top-six role. His size and physical willingness are plusses, and they may be enough to get him into the lineup under Pat Quinn.
Ranking: Reserve defenseman.
Theo Peckham
I'm bullish on Peckham's potential, and he was one of the few bright spots on last year's miserable Springfield Falcons. He played far and away the toughest competition, added some offense (19 points in 47 games) and didn't get killed in goals against (a very respectable -7). He's a willing shot-blocker, uses his size, and has no compunction about fighting. That said, I do think he could use another year in the minors. His Corsi/60 rating was atrocious (-21.2) in fifteen NHL games and he struggled a bit with NHL speed.
All of that said, he's a fine option at #8 and not one of the weak links on the depth chart.
Ranking: #7/#8 defenseman.
Taylor Chorney
Taylor Chorney is a prospect whose numbers are way out of line to the scouting reports. He didn't play top opposition, contributed less offense than Peckham (.309 points per game vs. .404 points per game in the AHL), and on top of all that led the Falcons with a -29 rating. The next worst defenseman was Chorney's frequent partner Mathieu Roy, at -20. He's undersized, and was unimpressive in a brief NHL cameo to end the season.
Speaking of that brief NHL cameo, the numbers are probably meaningless but still fun to look at: -67.6 Corsi/60 and 9.66 GAON/60. Chorney isn't a top-pairing defenseman in the AHL, and the dropoff between Peckham and Chorney is incredible.
Ranking: AHL'er.
Final Analysis
This isn't a bad group - guys are slotted in where they belong, for the most part (with spare parts Strudwick and Chorney being the sole players above where they should be) and that's a situation both welcome and surprising given this team's tendencies. However, trading a defenseman without replacing him will seriously test this group's depth - particularly when injuries hit.
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Jason Strudwick – Ranking: 14th forward.
The guy isn’t an NHL defenseman.
I am utterly baffled by the continuing insistence, after two years, that the Oilers need to trade Sheldon Souray. No, no, fucking no, you idiots. There is no one else in the top four who plays anything resembling a physical game, and despite the howls of consternation from day one (fuelled by one bad year, really), his time in Edmonton has been pretty positive on both sides of the puck; certainly, he’s played to his strengths and worked within his limitations, for the most part, and so long as he continues to do so, and stays healthy, he will be a perfectly fine 1A defenceman along with Vote for Lubo. Plus, when he punches people, they fall down. Call me shallow, but I appreciate that ability, when used sparingly.
I think Smid was starting to make some real strides forward last season. As for Staios, I think he’s still a perfectly capable defenceman when he’s not asked to cover for his partner’s inadequacies. When he’s paired with a less than capable defenceman, he tends to try to do too much, and the result is frequently disastrous; the numbers comparing 24-44, 24-5, and 24-43 would seem to bear this out. For all we’ve complained about Smid’s baptism by fire, Staios has probably done more harm than good trying to save his bacon. He’s just not good enough to cover for anyone anymore, and unfortunately, that’s what he’ll wind up (trying) to do when he’s on the third pairing. Hell of a dilemma, really: do you play him up, and demote one of the true top four, or play him down, and watch a gong show?
Just say no to Jason Strudwick as an NHL defenceman. I’d honestly rather see Peckham as #7 than Strudwick. Seriously. Put Struds on the fourth line, let him knock people around for eight minutes a night, and be done with it. Or, you know, don’t re-sign him and leave some room for a kid who might actually get better. (Oh wait…)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
Souray
I really believe that Souray wants out of town. Brownlee’s made the point a few times, and the rumours refuse to go away.
Look if Souray wants to stay, and can keep playing at the level he played at last season, I’m all for him. He was tremendous. I have my doubts about whether he can keep doing it though.
A posse ad esse.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 15, 2009 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions
If he wants out, then there’s not much to be done for it, other than to try to convince him to stay by having the team as a whole play better. I just don’t understand the fervour with which certain people around these parts have been howling for him to be traded almost from the minute he was signed, leaning mostly on that one bad (defensive) year in Montreal, because it was the only one we had Gabe stats for. For a community that prides itself on understanding what a small sample is, that’s always seemed really strange. (I notice now it’s a cap thing and a trade value thing. Funny, that.)
To be clear, I’m not Souray’s #1 Superfan — I know the warts of his game all too well — but it always seemed to me like I was the only one who knew what we were getting here, having watched him as a Canadien since before the lockout, and felt compelled to defend the move. That he’s worked out even better than I had hoped is gravy. I agree that one of these days, it’s going to cease to work out, but as long as it isn’t this year, it’s all good. :)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)
The argument against Souray at the time was much more nuanced than you suggest Doogie2K.
1) Just like Khabibulin, there were a serious lack of suitors clamouring to throw crazy money at Souray. Again like Khabibulin, this is not the player’s fault, but the contract is a major part of a player’s value.
2) It wasn’t just the Desjardins stuff and it wasn’t just one year that showed Souray had a questionable ES background. (Although the year in question was astoundingly poor in comparison to the rest of the data.) I do agree that this was probably a little overstated at the time and Souray has performed very well in this regard. I recall lots of questions about Habs forwards at the time though – that team was god-awful at ES. I remember looking at that data and raising some questions, although I certainly didn’t absolve Souray.
3) Injuries. Souray had major injury concerns and continues to have those concerns with serious shoulder and wrist problems in his past. You’ll note that he already blew a year here, so the concerns at the time of his signing and going forward were and are wholly justififed.
4) Age. Souray’s not a spring chicken. He will decline, but it’s a question of when. This was true when he was signed and continues to be a question while he’s on the team. Like the injuries, this one doesn’t get better over time, in fact the probabilities get worse from the Oilers’ perspective.
(Incidentally, most people that wanted to deal Smyth based on 3 and 4 really got it thrown in their faces when Souray was signed in the offseason – they managed to find an older more injury prone guy, who proceeded to gas a whole year. Well done, fellas.)
5) Shooting percentage. A classic issue for the free agency market – do not buy high on SH% players. The Oilers picked up a dman shooting 11.6% the year before – just ludicrous. He hasn’t matched it as an Oiler and probably won’t ever again (he’ll still put up a really good SH% for a dman with his shot distance though, for obvious reasons – he’s got a Studly Wonderbomb). If he does shoot 11% for 75+ games, then you really have to deal him, because you probably will find another idiot like Lowe.
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