An Amicus Brief In Support of Dustin Penner, Part I -- Traditional Stats

Player X
My response, and this is not meant in a terse manner, is who cares?

One person I can think of that cares is you. You did say the following in the original post, right?

How do these two perform without Dustin Penner on their line?

So you invited that discussion yourself and tackling that issue will require a more nuanced approach in order to defend Penner to all four corners of the Earth, if that indeed is your goal. (Although, unless you go all the way back to Smyth, it’s probably plagued by small sample sizes anyway.)

Anyway, I look forward to the next installment. It reads a little like a puff piece so far, but it will be interesting to see if there is some balance introduced. Personally I have no interest in an uncompromising defense of Dustin Penner because it will surely fall as far short of reality as a diatribe against the player.

Speaking for myself, I’m pretty aware of Penner’s contribution to the first line at this point. What I really want to know is why he can’t impress NHL head coaches for more than 10-15 game stretches?

It gets glossed over a lot on the Oilogosphere these days because it doesn’t fit the “MacT is crazy” narrative, but Penner does happen to be 0 for 2 with NHL coaches. Randy Carlyle was all over him in Anaheim as well, saying many of the same things that MacTavish said and he used the bench and the press conference liberally as motivating tools for Penner.

Perhaps it’s just their expectations? I think there’s more to it though. Regardless, we’re about to get another data point in Quinn, and arguably two with Renney on board, so that will help.

(One other thing – Bravo for getting 07/08 in there. Too often players get evaluated on blogs using just one season and that’s rarely enough. Getting the extra data is far more valuable than worrying about the other complicating factors being introduced by the extra seasons.)

I’m looking forward to further installments. I hope you include situational minutes.

We know Horcoff started in the defensive zone 220 more times than Penner, therefore “without” Penner. So of course his GF and boxcar production rates are going to plummet in his ice-time away from Penner because he’s starting 180 feet awat from the opponent’s net.

What would be interesting to know is how many of Penner’s 284, Horcoff’s 310 and Hemsky’s 305 attack zone draws were taken together.

It is likely that 10-83-27 were teamed strategically in the attack zone. So there boxcar production will obviously appear more Alfredsson-esque.

If your going to do a statistical analysis, you should ALWAYS double check your math. Hemmer, Penner and Horc only scored 76 goals based on your stats, not 86 goals. 21+26+29=76. I bet that puts them lower than 10th.

While not as strong as you state, it does show the improved point production with them together as linemates compared to Penner not on the line at all..

Would it be possible for you to post all of the lines for the western conference that you used? Thanks in advance