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The Western Conference Predictions from James Mirtle & Why I disagree!!!!

Here is the Western and Eastern Conference predictions posted over the 'From the Rink' 

http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/7/21/956220/from-the-rink-readers-predict-the

Just to make it sure, It is not MIrtle's prejections. He had asked all readers to post their view as to how they predict the standings to be. It is merely the average standings. Well this is predicted average standings for the Western Conference:

 

  1. Detroit
  2. Chicago 
  3. San Jose 
  4. Calgary
  5. Vancouver
  6. Anahiem
  7. Columbus
  8. St. Loius
  9. Minnesota
  10. Dallas
  11. Los Angeles
  12. Edmonton
  13. Nashville
  14. Colorado
  15. Phoenix
Not just over at Mirtle's but the General consensus in the hockey world sans Edmonton, seems to belive in standings close to the ones posted.  I contest neither the top 4 nor the bottom 3, but I do believe that Chicago will do better than Detroit.  It is the positions from 5 to 12 which are up for contention between 8 teams.  I think these teams are very much similar in terms of their skill level. Predicting which of the 4 will make the playoffs is extremely difficult and redundant.  Allow me to do a brief analysis teamwise. 
  • Vancouver
Vancouver slotted at 5th is the one with which I am the most unhappy. And hence I am devoting a huge part of the post towards the Cunucks. 
Lets analyse the off-season moves(not taking in the minor moves):
Outgoing:
Mats Sundin 9-19-28 -5 in 16:50 TOI  M. Ohlund   6-19-25 +14 in 21:34 TOI 
Incoming:
Mikael Samuelsson 19-21-40 in 15:22 TOI
Other than re-signing the Sedins there is nothing else they have done in the off-season. Lets compare the 09-10 team to the 07-08 team which failed to make the playoffs. Markus Naslund, B Morrison and Taylor Pyatt have been replaced by Pavol Demtira, Steve Bernier and M Samuelsson for the forwards. On defense, M Ohlund was injured for most of the 07-08 season and will not be present for 09-10 season. His numbers and veteran leadership presence has not been replaced. Other than a few fringe players, the roster is almost similar. 
Also except for Luongo and Kesler, no major impact player is playing for a contract. My observation is that players generally have higher production in their contract year. Also generally a players' production drops the season after signing a contract. This finding was documented in a blog too(not by me), however I am unable to find it. 
Conclusion: the Cunucks havent really improved. Their roster is average at best and many of their players(read Sedins, Burrows, Demitra) may actually regress from their last season's production. I think Vancouver will need a herculean effort from Luongo to make the playoffs. 
  • Anahiem
This is a team which is a favorite of many to make the playoffs and I dont think they are wrong. Anahiem has a good mix of veterans and youth, scorers, playmakers and grinders. Anahiem GM really should be praised for re-tooling his roster on the fly. However, Their defense is young, inexperienced and shallow. Scott Niedermeyer is the ageless wonder who will the be the anchor for the defense. Much of Anahiem's defense will depend on the play of 3 D-men: Whitney, Wisnewiski and Boynton.  After his breakout 06-07 season, Whitney has regressed every season( http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8470309) .  Of course he cant be good enough to fill the void left by Pronger's departure, but he will have to get back to his old form. Wisneiwski showed a lot of promise last season with Anahiem. However, he is inexperienced, and for him to step in and replace Beachemin will be unreasonable. Boynton had a lot of troubles with the FLA management. Also he was unimpressive as a defenseman. He too will have to turn it around. Bottom 3 D-men are not really any good. Luca Sbisa may need another year of development before he can step into the NHL. 
JS Giguere(despite his last years' woes) and Hiller should provide consistent goaltending. 
Conclusion: If their Defense can hold its own, Ana should be able to make the playoffs. 
  • Columbus
This is another team which made the playoffs last season, and is pegged to repeat that same achievement this time around. However there are 3 major problems:
1> They are depending too much on young guns-namely Voracek, Brassard and Filatov. They will be counted heavily to provide scoring. Such and expectation is natural and not unwarranted. However, in such cases there is one question- What if they dont? Brassard is coming off an injury, Voracek will be in his dreaded sophomore season and Filatov will be a rookie
2> Their D- corps is one dimensional. 5 out of the 6 D-men are one dimensional, shutdown D-men. Their only PMD is very young undersized D-man. Last season Hitchcock was able to extract the most out of his D corps, Can he do it again this season? 
3> 21 year old goaltender. Of course he won the calder trophy, Came in second in the Vezina trophy and 4th in Hart trophy voting. But that doesnt change the fact that he may not be as spectacular this time around. He may not be able to bail out his team as much as he did last season. 
Conclusion: This team will be a wildcard again in the Western Conference. Ideally it should make the playoffs. 
  • St louis
This team was a suprise playoff team last season. For the next season, Paul Kariya, Erik Johnson and Erik Brewer are virtually offseason aquisitions. However like CBJ their success too is dependent on progression of kids and continued spectacular play of their goalie. Mason has never proved himself as a true #1 goalie and will have to play like one again. 
  • Minnesota
This team is another Wild card of the conference. This is a Jack of all trades sort of a team. Much will depend on the coaching style. Till the last season it was said that Minny always overachieved due to Lemaire's defensive coaching. They do have players with offensive flair ala PM Bouchard, M Koivu, Brunette and Havlat. Much will depend on Havlat's ability to stay healthy. He should provide consistent scoring.  They have decent top 4 Dmen and wiill hope Brent Burns will improve. Also they have a Vezina finalist goalie. 
Conclusion: I am at loss to make a good analysis. 
  • Dallas
Many of us thought this team will dominate the Western Conference. However it was not meant to be. IInconsistent play of Turco really sent Dallas towards the bottom of the league. Injuries to Zubov, Morrow and Richards did not help their case either. However this lead to a breakout season for many players such as L Eriksson and James Neal. S Robidas and Matt Niskanen shored up their D. They made a spirited comeback only to be set back again.  Many people think that when healthy, this team should make playoffs next season. However I differ from such an opinion. 
Their D corps is very unimpressive. Robidas and Niskanen are very good and effective top 4 D. However together they arent a top pairing D man unit. This will prove to be their achillies heel. Crawford's up tempo style also may not benefit the inexperienced and a very average D-corps.
Conclusion: Teams are known to over achieve at times and with a more focused Turco might help them make the cut. 
LA is a team which has improved( at least on paper) during the off season. I dont see how the additions of Smyth and Scuderi will help the team. This is the seaon when Kopitar should break out. They have a real good top 6 and an experienced and defensively aware bottom 6. 
However, much will be dependent on the development of Drew Doughty. Jack Johnson seemed impressive during the World cup and there is not much reason to believe he will regress. However, they are still both young. However the biggest conern is their goaltending. We can never say how Quick and Ersberg will pan out. But then again they have enough cap space that they take on an experienced goalie(read: upgrade) with an expensive contract.
Conclusion: LA can really be the St louis of this coming season. They could really make the play offs this season. This should be their goal.
  • Edmonton 
And we finally arrive to our favorite team. On paper, this team is not much different from last season. Last season wasnt disapointing just because we did not make the playoffs, but becasue of the manner in which we lost our berth. Towards the end, we played very uninspiring hockey. Our players looked disinterested and dispassionate.  
There is one most important change, the coaching staff. We underachieved last season. With propper guidence under Quinn and Renney, we should at least be able to bring in the compete factor day in and day out. That itself will go a long way in improving our result from last season. 
Another point to be noted here is that we have 3 key players playing for a contract next season  - Gagner, Cogliano and Grebeshkov. Also Horcoff should be past his post contract slump. I cant say for sure that we will make the playoffs, but we shouldnt be at the bottom of the fringe teams. 
Conclusion: Oilers will be a different team(no I am not talking about Heatley) this time around. A lot will depend on the 36 year old Roloson Khabibulin on the amount of wins we rack up. Then again last time we acquired a 36 yr old goalie we reached the SC Finals!!!!!

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

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