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Combined Top-25 Prospect Rankings: #11 - #15.

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The third part in Copper & Blue’s prospect ranking series takes a look at the players who just missed the top-ten cutoff: #11-#15. A few recent mid- to late-round picks make their debut here after surprisingly good seasons, and they’re joined by a pair of defense prospects who have fallen after poor seasons. Rounding out the group is the Oilers’ highest-ranked goaltending prospect.

As before, we maintain the same format, with the "Seal Value" being the best case scenario. Derek Zona has done up the profiles on the odd number players, while I have reviewed even-numbered ones.

Star-divide

11. Milan Kytnar

Strengths: Excellent playmaker, but it's his defensive ability that sets him apart. He's reliable in his own end and strong in the faceoff circle. He is quick to learn and adapt.

Weaknesses: He's not strong on the puck and doesn't have "sandpaper".

Seal Value: Plays at a .7 PPG rate in the AHL as a 20-year-old and learns how to play professional defense. He becomes the little center that everyone fears, exactly like Michael Peca did.

12. Devan Dubnyk

Strengths: He’s big. At nearly 6’6", Dubnyk takes up a ton of net. He’s gotten better at reading the play and is solid positionally. Has off-ice smarts too, as he was named the 2004 CHL Scholastic Player of the Year.

Weaknesses: Dubnyk’s put pretty pedestrian numbers up over the past few years, although it’s fair to wonder how much of that was the team he was playing on. He’s still wildly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows, and his lateral movement really isn’t all that it could be.

Seal Value: If Dubnyk puts it all together – and absolutely everything goes right, he could be an NHL starter for years, much like… Olaf Kolzig.

13. Taylor Chorney

Strengths: Offense, offense and offense. Has great offensive instincts. Matches above-average skating ability with outstanding passing skills.

Weaknesses: Sloppy in his own end, he played second toughs in the AHL this year, and didn't tread water, though his second half was slightly improved. Not physical, he must rely on position to be an effective defender.

Seal Value: His offensive prowess and skating ability allow him to pair up with a stay-at-home partner and fans end up shaking their heads repeatedly exactly like when they watched...Tom Poti.

14. Philippe Cornet

Strengths: Cornet’s a skilled puck-mover (led Rimouski in scoring) and has good on-ice vision and awareness. He plays through pain – as one example, early in the year he broke his thumb and was supposed to be out for a month but he played in his team’s next game, two days later.

Weaknesses: Cornet’s not tiny (5’11.5", 173lbs) but he isn’t big either and he can get out-muscled on the play. He’s gritty but doesn’t initiate contact enough, and his skating still needs improvement. His shot is OK but could be better.

Seal Value: Cornet’s skill-set sounds a lot like that of another young forward who needed to improve his skating. If Cornet can make the same leap that… Joe Pavelski did, he could have a similar career.

15. Jeff Petry

Strengths: He's big -- 6'3" 200 and will probably add 10 more pounds. He's mobile and is able to use the wheels on offense and defense. He isn't afraid to work the corners and the front of the net, and likes the big, sometimes questionable hit. He's got a good first step and finds the exit pass well. He has a good shot and can play the power play as well as the penalty kill.

Weaknesses: He played 30 minutes a night on a really, really bad team. His numbers fell apart in both ends of the ice.

Seal Value: This past year is a blip on the radar. Petry spends half a season in the AHL and leaps into the NHL, eating it up like a young...Ed Jovanovski.

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what a fall for Jeff Petry. Last season he was around top 3 and now fallen down to 15. Heres to hoping Petry comes back on track.

by SumOil on Jul 14, 2009 10:29 PM MDT reply actions  

If Dubnyk can be like Kolzig, it will be great for the organization. I think he should be able to put up solid to exceptional numbers the next season pushing the organization to decide between him and Jeff Deslauries.

by SumOil on Jul 14, 2009 10:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Although if I were a betting man I’d put Dubnyk closer to Auld than Kolzig. Keep in mind these are pie in the sky projections ;)

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 15, 2009 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions  

oh ofcourse. lol. However applying law of averages, with the bad luck(or scouting) we have had with drafting goalies, one goalie from the system will have to be a good one!

by SumOil on Jul 15, 2009 1:38 AM MDT up reply actions  

These are the first profiles that I disagree with to any significant degree.

Just for the sake of airing them, here are my opinions:

I’d say a good seal value for Petry is Brad Stuart. While Stuart had a much better amateur career, I think that his NHL career is a good top end for Petry. Same sort of defensive defencies, very similar physical skill set, and an offensive game which is largely complementary and non-creative. I don’t see him having the same offensive potential as Jovo-cop.

Cornet is too high I feel. He lacks the extra size or dimensions to make it in the NHL and I don’t feel his offensive production to date makes him a candidate for even second line duties in the NHL. 77 points in a full QMJHL season is just not that good contextually speaking.

I’m a big critic of Chorney and I feel he’s been substantially overrated by the fanbase since his drafting. I’ll leave it at that.

Kytnar is probably a bit high in terms of his seal value as well. When Kevin Prendergast says your upside is a fourth liner I think we need to consider the potential of the player with a box of salt. I do like Kytnar though and I see him as being an NHL player at some point in his career.

Please accept my comments knowing that I in no way wish to criticize the work you fellows are putting out. I’m enjoying following this series and can’t help but offer my opinions on some of these prospects.

by Jon Kerber on Jul 15, 2009 1:49 AM MDT reply actions  

No worries, Jon, thanks for the opinions.

Since Derek and I both do this, I find myself disagreeing with a few of his statements, and vice versa, I’m sure. So much about prospects is guesswork and estimation, so there’s plenty of room for divergent opinion.

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Jul 15, 2009 8:24 AM MDT up reply actions  

Chorney

Man, I tried to find the most one-dimensional, least-physical defenseman that has a career in the league.

On Kytnar, I was torn between Peca and Yelle as a value for Kytnar, but he seems to be a late bloomer, so I went bigger.

As for Petry, he has all of the tools, he just needs to put them together. He has shown bursts of offense, though not this past year. The thing that bothered me the most about him when I watched Michigan State games this year was that he just gave up on plays at times. Though, hell, Jovanovski still does that too.

Thanks for the comments, by the way, they are much appreciated.

Contributor to The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 15, 2009 8:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

Kytnar

Peca is an excellent Seal Value for him. Actually if Kytnar turns out to be a Marchant, reasoner, or a late-Dvorak I would be happy. I think we should be hoping for a >50% in the dot, 10 goal a year, and some PK time from him in his prime (3C/4C).

I was really impressed by his WJC last year. In the bigggest games of his life he turned it up a gear (but I only saw one o his WHL games on TV, so it might not be a good sample size). I also saw some sand paper in those games, with the exception of his high-stick to his teammate’s face. I think he has the ability to be a big game player.

If coach is running the Cult of Hartikainen, I might start up the Sect of Kytnar.

by B.C.B. on Jul 15, 2009 9:25 AM MDT reply actions  

MAB

When I see Chorney, I see Marc-Andre Bergeron.
[MAB is gonna eat up the Swiss league next year]

Of these guys, the one most likely to play more than 200 NHL games is Petry.
Kytnar probably second.

by Mr DeBakey on Jul 15, 2009 10:41 AM MDT reply actions  

I think Poti is actually a pretty good seal value, minus the size. I don’t think your assessment of Chorney is off, I just wanted to note that generally I don’t like him as a prospect.

Yelle actually makes a lot of sense for Kytnar because I don’t see him having the skating ability that Peca has, and ultimately that will affect his ability on the forecheck, an area where Peca excelled.

Other than that I look forward to the next installment.

by Jon Kerber on Jul 17, 2009 12:17 AM MDT reply actions  

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