There Was Nothing Flukey About the 2005-06 Oilers

If we assume that one win is approximately equal to a 3-goal shift in goal differential, the Oilers move from being an 8th place team to winning the division and contending for the President’s Trophy.

JW: I’m pretty sure I’ve seen several of the Staterati equate 3 goals differential to a standings point and 6 goals to a win. With your adjustment the Oilers would have been around +40 on the season, no way is that a 117-point team. But definitely 100-plus.

The Wings of 2006 were big outshooters (34.1 to 26.6 S/G) and even bigger outscorers (PDO = 1.016 piggybacked on that 1.28 SF:SA ratio). They outplayed the Oilers pretty badly and were beaten by goaltending at both ends of the rink. To me Oilers had to lucky to win that series, but they certainly played well enough to be in it. I thought the Oil were full value for their subsequent wins over very strong Sharks and Ducks squads. So no, they weren’t a fluke, and they certainly did get on a roll, at least until the NHL-enforced 9-day layoff before the SCF.

League average save percentage has been pretty steady since 2006 at about .909, from the research I remember doing a while back, so the goal differential moves even further, into the 50-goal range. Of course, then you’d have to assume league average save percentage at the other end, which knocks it back down, but the point remains, and it’s one I’ve been arguing for three years to anyone who (won’t) listen. The 2006 Oilers were a good team.

Bruce has correctly noted the disparity between Detroit and the Oilers in round one. The Oilers were outshot 40 to 26 on average in that series. What no one talks about is the 62 shot disparity over 5 games favouring Anaheim in round 3. 183-121, and the Oilers never came closer than within 6 shots of outshooting them in any game. Dwayne Roloson was going to be the full value winner of the Conn Smythe before he was hurt. They weren’t some unbeatable powerhouse, but flukey is quite unfair. They were always a good team. Their goalie got hot at an opportune time to get them through round 1 in particular. No sin in that.

The Flames in 03/04 otoh WAS a fluke run. And their ownership took that bit of good fortune and spent more on payroll and tried to improve the team. Without checking, I imagine the Flames have had better underlying numbers each year since 03/04. It’s looked that way to me, they just haven’t had a playoff run yet.

The numbers might have a quibble, Vic:

03/04 SF 27.4 SA 25.5 GD +24 94 points
05/06 SF 28.0 SA 27.6 GD +23 103 points
06/07 SF 27.3 SA 30.5 GD +34 96 points
07/08 SF 28.2 SA 28.5 GD +2 94 points
08/09 SF 32.2 SA 29.8 GD +5 98 points

That 03/04 team wasn’t just about luck. They earned that goal differential honestly. They were as banged up as any other team down the stretch without Lydman, McAmmond (when he could still play), Reinprecht, and Lombardi for the last 2 rounds, and still out shot their non-Detroit playoff opposition by a decent clip. This season’s team was the first since then that deserved a better fate, but Kiprusoff is on the downslide, and they couldn’t overcome injuries and a really good Hawk team.

You points re: the EIG and Lowe’s kid-in-a-candy-store approach in the Katz era are spot -on, of course. I know the EIG will always be held up as the “greatest guys in the world”, but that 21% ticket hike in 06/07 should have been a screaming indicator that it was just business, nothing more. That was a nice little ATM they had going, if only you ingrate Oiler fans had let them keep running a 40-ish million dollar payroll on 90-100 million in revenue ; )