2009 NHL Entry Draft: Jordan Schroeder and the U.S. College Forwards

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 18, 2009 5:00 AM PDT Comment 4 comments

The 2006 Draft had a pair of very talented college forwards go in the top five. Jonathan Toews, the current captain in Chicago, went third overall while Phil Kessel went fifth to Boston. The current draft isn't quite as rich, but Jordan Schroeder is a dynamic offensive player - and one whose numbers are rather similar to Kessel's during Kessel's draft year. Both played for the University of Minnesota.

The sixth part of my draft preview series looks at the handful of top forwardprospects playing U.S. college hockey.

WCHA

Jordan Schroeder: 30G – 75A – 105PTS (5th NA)
Mike Connolly: 25G – 48A – 73PTS (206th NA)
Jared Festler: 23G – 33A – 56PTS (112th NA)
Jordan Murray: 14G – 11A – 25PTS (176th NA)

CCHA

Justin Florek: 20G – 12A – 32PTS (81st NA)

Jordan Schroeder

Jordan Schroeder is an incredible talent, a player whose only real weakness is the fact that he stands 5'9". He's a dynamic offensive producer, but he's also reasonably competent in his own end, playing on the penalty kill. He can shoot or pass and his shot is generally described as "underrated" because he tends to be a pass-first player. Hockey's Future did a great profile of Schroeder. Even though he's small, THN quoted a scout who said it affects him less than it does other players because he's so strong physically. Schroeder's a dark horse to go in the top ten, and should certainly be gone by the time the 15th pick rolls around. A very good player with a bright future.

The Rest of The Group

It's a steep dropoff after Jordan Schroeder, but a few players could still be late round picks:

Justin Florek brings size and a shooter's mentality, but his game still has significant holes.
Jared Festler's small and didn't exactly light the world on fire this season, but he's been a legitimate scorer for three years now and might be worth a late round pick.
Mike Connolly's ranked lower despite his fine offensive totals because he's an overage player (born in July of 1989) but he's had a fine transition from the AJHL to NCAA hockey. I don't think he'll get drafted, but even if he doesn't I would be very surprised if he doesn't show up at some team's summer camp.
Jordan Murray's another small player, but unlike others on this list he isn't one who has put up strong scoring numbers, and I'd be quite surprised to see him drafted.

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Comments

Nice series JW. Thanks.

Who are you taking tomorrow in the SBN mock draft. I know you have a man crush on Ellis, but please consider Kulikov or Schroeder. I would take either of these guys ahead of Ellis. I would also think long and hard about Moore. He has such great tools (size, skating and smarts)and a tremendous upside.

As pointed out in the Coming Down The Pipe blog on Ellis, who are the comparables for him? Can you name another tiny, average skating defenseman without a strong build that is a star in the league??

Anyway, I can’t influence the Oilers but I can pull for my picks here.

by Matt.N on Jun 18, 2009 5:59 AM PDT reply actions

I've already made my pick

And all three of the guys you mention came to mind. My rationale will be posted tomorrow, along with the name of my draft pick.

As for Ellis (regardless of who I actually end up selecting), one thing worth keeping in mind is that Pat Quinn created his role at the WJC because of how good he’d been at the U18; the current coach has seen him, and seen him good. That probably matters.

Let’s look at the three guys that Guy compared him to: Hawgood, Russell, and Bergeron. I’ll show points, and then percentage of offense (adjusted for GP)

Ellis: 57GP – 22G – 67A – 89PTS (34.1% of offense)
Greg Hawgood: 71GP – 34G – 85A – 119PTS (26.9% of offense)
Kris Russel: 72GP – 26G – 35A – 61PTS (26.1% of offense)
Marc-Andre Bergeron: 46GP – 8G – 14A – 22PTS (16.1% of offense)

None of these guys are comparable in terms of offense. Hawgood was drafted in the mid-eighties (he played for Ken Hitchcock’s 400+ goals scoring WHL team) and even he’s well back in % offense, and they have comparable PPG. The game’s gotten more accepting of small players since than anyway.

As for a comparable, how about Dan Boyle?

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 18, 2009 7:32 AM PDT up reply actions

Dan Boyle

-Boyle is listed as 5’11" and 190lbs. Ellis is a questionable 5’7" and "Ryan also scored "BA" (below average) for upper and lower body physical development. " -source is Gare Joyce

-Boyle was never drafted. He signed as a free agent by the Florida Panthers on March 30, 1998

-His first full season with the Panthers in 2000-2001 at the age of 24 he went 4-18-22 in 69GP and was a -14. Second worst on the team (behind Ollie Jokenin).

-His coming out season was the 2002-2003 season with the stacked TB team he put up 53 points in 77 games at the age of 26.

Is this the career path we are hoping for from a #10 overall pick? 8 years until impact on the league, if we are lucky.

Don’t get me wrong. He is as prolific a scorer from the back end as anyone in the history of the OHL, but he scares the bejesus out of me. I just don’t see transferable skills.

by Matt.N on Jun 18, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions

I’ve cooled off on Ellis quite bit since the combine. His size (5’ 8.75" at the combine?) and his lack of foot speed are warning bells. The fact that we don’t know his strength due to injury prior to the combine doesn’t help.

If you look at most of the small NHL defensemen who found a niche for themselves (Boyle, Rafalski) they are typically dynamic, quick skaters.

Ellis’ skating is generally described as average or mediocre.

While I think Ellis is likely an NHL defenseman, I just don’t see him as being one who contributes to a winning team until he’s at least UFA age. At least not while he’s still small, slow, and presumably weak.

It usually takes time for defensemen to figure out the NHL level of competition, and there’s good reason to believe that it’s an even longer learning curve for undersized defensemen.

by Jon Kerber on Jun 18, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions

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