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Dany Heatley Not Interested in Edmonton?

There were a couple of reports today on the ongoing Dany Heatley soap opera, and for Edmonton fans hoping the talented forward will be dealt here they can be taken either for good or ill.  First off, here's Bruce Garrioch, who every so often gets something right (and occasionally gets stuff wrong, too):

The Edmonton Oilers like Dany Heatley.

The feeling may not be mutual.

League sources say the Oilers are one of the two teams that have contacted Senators GM Bryan Murray about the disgruntled Ottawa winger, but the indications are Edmonton might not be at the top of Heatley's list of destinations he'd like to land.



Meanwhile, Allen Panzeri in the Ottawa Citizen agrees that Heatley has a list of preferred teams, but his list is a little different:

While several Eastern Conference teams, in particular the Boston Bruins, were mentioned by agents as a possible landing spot for Heatley, the speculation is that his preferred list includes a group of Western Conference teams, perhaps as many as eight: the San Jose Sharks probably top the list, followed by the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, Edmonton Oilers, Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames.

There's more, though:

But being forced to pick from Heatley's preferred list could, likely would, force Murray to leave the best offer on the table and take an inferior one, simply because it's a team Heatley wants to join....

At any rate, Ottawa's fans better rein in their expectations. It looks as if it's going to be very difficult for Murray to hit a home run on this trade. 

So basically the situation boils down to two key components; one very good for Oilers fans, and one that may or may not be good:

  1. Dany Heatley is going to get traded, and probably for less than fair value to whoever gets him.
  2. Dany Heatley is probably going to be traded to a team either of his choice or a team off of a list that he's submitted to Murray.  Edmonton may or may not be at the top or even on the list.

In any case, the offer I suggested earlier this week (Gilbert, O'Sullivan and Eberle) is probably a bit rich at this point.  If Edmonton's not on Heatley's list, it doesn't matter how rich the offer is, and if Edmonton is on Heatley's list than there's likely no need to offer fair value.  Bryan Murray simply doesn't have many options; less in fact than Kevin Lowe had with Chris Pronger, and we all saw how that turned out. 

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I think Garrioch is making a leap of logic here that is a bit slipshod. Being at the top of the list is essentially irrelevant, since Heatley isn’t a free agent. Yes, he could certainly kibosh a trade to Edmonton (which would contradict earlier reports), but the key is whether it would be a place he would be willing to go, not whether it is his #1 preferred destination.

I wonder how this sort of thing works behind the scenes. Is the list of destinations he’d waive his NMC for an up front thing, where Ottawa can pick the best deal from any of the named teams? Or does Ottawa contact Heately’s agent each time they’re considering an offer and get the greenlight on a one-by-one basis?

If the former and Edmonton is on the list, then Heatley really has no say in the preferred order of destinations. If the latter, then he could block a trade to Edmonton until all of the more desired locations have been exhausted.

by krankor on Jun 14, 2009 1:20 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

thank god

No overpays. Now, let’s get on to moving Souray, Moreau and O’Sullivan/Nilsson/Cogliano

by Derek Zona on Jun 14, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Heatley’s value is likely mitigated by the circumstances but the Oilers would still be competing with at least 8 other teams. I can’t see us landing him for less than Gilbert and O’Sullivan. Cogliano would likely be the asking price rather than O’Sullivan.

by Jon Kerber on Jun 14, 2009 2:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps

Gilbert/Penner or Grebeshkov/Penner might get it done though, and it might make things easier going forward.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 14, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

There’s also the reported $4M bonus that gives Ottawa an extra incentive to deal before July 1 and could give an advantage to a team that’s willing to take that on board.

Gilbert+Penner would be almost perfect, as it’s basically a wash in terms of cap space. Could Gilbert+Penner+Willingness to get the deal done before July 1 outstrip the competition?

by krankor on Jun 14, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If Penner/Gilbert gets this deal done I’ll be dancing on my desk. I like Gilbert and I still think Penner has some good potential (a new coach might be just what he needs) but for a guy like Heatley I’d be signing on the dotted line so fast it’d make you head spin.

Does anyone have an idea how the $4 mil bonus counts against the cap if he isn’t moved by July 1? Obviously the Sens pay it but would the cap hit be prorated over the last four years of the deal? I can’t find anything that clears this up for me.

by ryanbatty on Jun 15, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cap hit

I’m fairly sure that the 4MM bonus is counted as salary this year for cap purposes; in other words, it’s already been calculated as being spread out over the whole length of the deal, so whether he’s moved before or after July 1 will have no impact on his cap hit, just on salary paid.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 15, 2009 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Take a chance?

If Edmonton is on “the list” Murray would let Tambo know and that would dictate if he makes an offer. If the Oil are on “the list”, does Tambo take a chance of not getting him if Katz told him to do what it takes (if it makes sense).

So, if normally Gilbert, O’Sullivan/Cogliano and Eberle would be considered worth it to get Heatly and you offer less and don’t get him, does Tambo look like an idiot and Katz blow a gasket? Especially if another team gets him for less than the package listed above.

I bet if we are on the list, Tambo may start with less, but quickly re-offer the better package to sweeten the pot. May not be the best time to wheel and deal for a used car!!

by toprightcorner on Jun 14, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm new to Copper&Blue

but I’m not new to Dany Heatley. I’ve followed him for his entire time in Ottawa on NHLCI (and a couple of times in person in Kanata) because up until just over a year ago my brother lived in Ottawa and we talk/discuss/argue about hockey all the time — have done all our lives — and he’s the alltime hometown fan: “my hometime team, I live and die with them”. He’s moved to Toronto now but is still an Ottawa fan, just as he was a Flame fan for a while when he first moved to Ottawa from Calgary. But the amazing thing is that we’ve always agreed on our opinion of DH: heavenly hands, natural sniper, COULD be a superstar in the top 20 of all time, BUT he only shows up in the other team’s end 90+% of the time. On the rare occasions when he decides to play he is dominant..
If you’re looking for a guy like that, go for it. It’s the frustration of a guy like that that gets me. I know the Oilers need a triggerman. I know that if you can get him for players you don’t want it’ll feel like a steal, but that’s a hefty no-move longterm contract to be saddled with. I’m just saying be careful what you wish for. But I think it’s all academic because he can veto any potential deal and I doubt he wants to play where hockey’s a big deal. I’d be amazed if he goes to a Canadian team other than maybe Vancouver if they can’t sign the Sedins. I look for it to be California, but what do I know?

by Gary Bettman's Evil Twin on Jun 14, 2009 6:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Welcome!

Feel free to chime in any time.

You’re absolutely right that Heatley’s not a complete player. One note – I believe his NMC disappears completely if he’s dealt.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 14, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the welcome, and the info on the NMC

I’m a West Coaster now but grew up on the Prairies, mostly in Edmonton and Calgary; and was very lucky to see many Oiler games in the Gretzky era courtesy of my best friend (who still lives in the west end — can’t blast him out of there) who had season tickets with his company. Many fond memories there and frustrations now with the Oil. I look forward to reading your blog (which I discovered via mc79) and I see you do Canucks stuff too.

by Gary Bettman's Evil Twin on Jun 15, 2009 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Canucks stuff

Every so often, but I do my best to avoid it ;)

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Jun 15, 2009 11:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

But those are good articles you just wrote there. Must be, I put comments in.

by Gary Bettman's Evil Twin on Jun 15, 2009 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Heatley

I pray that Katz doesn’t order Tambo et al to get Heatley. The cost would be too great. I don’t have a very good gut feeling for Dany Boy. Nor did I for Hossa. Nylander, Lupul, Oates, nor Dopita. The Oilers have been poorly managed for years and it will take careful planning for at least a couple of years to bring them back to being at least competitive and hopefully a fun to watch contender. In my view Lowe has been pressured into making a number of questionable decisions (over-reaching) due to circumstances, most of which were not of his own making. Katz/Tambo can still try some “bold” moves, but they have to have backup plans, and remain flexible because things always change and seldom work out as planned (e.g. we don’t have to worry what to do about GlenX or Reasoner until after we’ve signed Hossa…Oops, what do you mean they signed somewhere else? Didn’t they know they were in our plans? The snots! How ungrateful and how unloyal of them. Oops, we neglected to take into account that just might want to act in their own best self interests.

by TK10 on Jun 14, 2009 11:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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