Patrick O’Sullivan Vs. Jordan Eberle

Ah, logic, it’s a killer.

Eberle has made a big splash in the collective Oiler consciousness because of his world junior performance.

While it’s certainly true that scoring totals and proportional contribution to team scoring are good starting points for comparing prospects I think there are a few other factors to consider in comparisons.

Prospect development is rarely a linear process, but it’s almost always true that prospects should show improvement year over year, whether that be in junior or in the NHL as young players.

O’Sullivan’s value is possibly lower than one might think for a few reasons. He showed relatively little improvement each year in junior, despite incredibly impressive scoring totals as a 16 year old. His first seasons in the NHL have largely mirrored his junior performance, with little improvement year over year. Beyond that he’s always had the spectre of his father following his career and issues pertaining to his own character.

In terms of Eberle’s value, the same criticism can be levied regarding improvement. His totals have only improved marginally between his 17 and 18 year old seasons. However, a team holding a prospect is likely to assign some value to a player on the basis of the player’s potential to continue to improve. This is where Eberle will have more value than O’Sullivan.

Every year that O’Sullivan fails to improve is another piece of data in the sample that suggests he doesn’t have much more potential to improve. Eberle is certainly an unknown at this point, but it would hurt more in retrospect if we let him go and he flourished elsewhere. If there’s only a 50% chance that he continues to improve to a 60 point player in the NHL, there’s still value which can be assigned to that possibility.

This is obviously not news however, but I think generally it describes why you see teams let go of prospects like Smid, Esposito or O’Sullivan but not ones such as Brad Richards.

I forgot to add this:

While O’Sullivan certainly had a good rookie season in the AHL I think you need to look at the makeup of that team. He was the third highest scorer for a team that scored the 4th most goals in the AHL. It was a strong team with good supporting veterans.

It was certainly a good season and likely a good sign in his development, but not as much as one might hope.

I’ve only really watched Osullivan since he’s been an Oiler and I’ve only seen Eberle from the World Junior tournament this past Christmas. What I did see was that Eberle turns on his game when it counts. There’s many guys that pad their stats when it doesn’t matter but freeze up when you need him the most. Then, there’s others that score the big goal when you need it a la Glenn Anderson.

Eberle was that guy in the World Juniors. I also heard a story Eberle reminded Lowe about when Edmonton drafted him. When he was younger, he was in a tournament in Edmonton in the finals against an Ontario team stacked with Tavares, Stamkos and others. Again, he was the guy to win it for his team and Lowe prestented him with the trophy.

Obviously these 2 stories aren’t enough to form an educated opinion, but there’s something about a guy that delivers in high pressure situations.

I’d keep Eberle

Didn’t Patrick O’Sullivan also have a standout performance at the WJC on a team with names like Zach Parise, Drew Stafford, and Phil Kessell?

Didn’t Patrick O’Sullivan also have two of the USA’s 4 goals, including the game winner, in the gold medal game against Canada at the 2004 WJC?

I don’t think there’s much point in putting weight in things like the WJC. It’s a very small sample size and I think most people in the blogosphere agree with that sentiment.

Jani Rita and Brad Isbister looked like WJC superstars and look how that turned out.

We know that there is an incredible drop in the likelihood of picking a superstars within the first round of the draft, even within the top 10. I think that beyond that there’s something else to be said for the idea that GMs likely attribute more value to picks and prospects than is borne out by the probabilities.

I think team influence on the development of players is somewhat overrated. In cases of obvious deficiencies the team may play a role in the learning process, but when it comes to simply being a producer at the NHL level I think the player has a lot more to do with the process than does the team.

Rita has since returned to the FNL and not done a heck of a lot. He had one season at a point per game there which isn’t saying much considering the strength of the league and two more substantially sub-par seasons.