Report: Dany Heatley Willing to Waive NMC To Come To Edmonton
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 8:24 AM MDT
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From TSN.ca:
Sources tell TSN the Edmonton Oilers is one team Heatley would consider waiving his no-trade clause to play for.
Now that this is a possibility, I'm actually a little bit worried.
Heatley's a very good player who does one thing very well (score goals) and the Oilers have a nice group of young players (players that the fanbase is currently underrating) and actually shape up like a good partner for the Senators in any trade.
Steve Tambellini must be careful not to overpay, since he's almost certainly interested - and right now, that means there are three assets who should not be moved:
- Ales Hemsky - To borrow an expression, this is robbing Peter to pay Paul. What's the point of moving a cheap first-line RW for an expensive first-line LW? We can argue about relative value, but Hemsky's contract means a lot in that discussion and the simple fact of the matter is that if the roster is going to be lopsided after a deal, the Oilers might as well continue rebuilding at a slower pace.
- Sam Gagner - The cheap young forward only turns 20 in August and hasn't come close to hitting his stride yet; despite that, he's still ahead of Hemsky's first two years - and Hemsky was a full season older than Gagner. Gagner remains a potential franchise cornerstone.
- The 10th Overall Pick - This pick should translate into a difference maker, and the Oilers don't get high picks like this all that often (and if things work out, they shouldn't be in this range for the forseeable future). Given that they'll almost certainly be giving up all sorts of valuable young players, it would be a mistake to move this pick.
With that in mind, Ottawa's clear need seems to be some mobility on their blueline. Sheldon Souray would be a nice player to build a package around, but he has a no-movement clause. Ditto Visnovsky. All of that means that one of Tom Gilbert or Denis Grebeshkov is likely going to be the centrepiece of a package, and Tom Gilbert is the likely candidate because a) his value is higher and b) he gets paid more.
So, Tom Gilbert.
The Oilers will also need to move a forward back to Ottawa, a downgrade on Heatley. The candidates here need to be young, and relatively effective; something which rules out a guy like Robert Nilsson. I can think of only three players that would fit (given the constraints I put on the Oilers above): Patrick O'Sullivan, Andrew Cogliano, and Dustin Penner. Ideally for the Oilers, Dustin Penner would be going the other way (much like Heatley he's a player who is vastly more effective from the blueline in than anywhere else on the ice) given his contract, while the Senators would almost certainly push for Cogliano. Patrick O'Sullivan would seem to be a good compromise; a very good young forward who plays LW and seems to be developing a variety of skills. He makes a hair under 3MM per season, so in combination with Tom Gilbert the Oilers have almost made up Heatley's salary. From a PR perspective, Oilers fans haven't seen much from O'Sullivan, so he tends to be underrated in Edmonton.
So, Gilbert + O'Sullivan.
The Oilers would probably need to toss in a third player or prospect given Heatley's established value. Undoubtedly, the preference here would be to see a roster player who isn't living up to expectations shed - perhaps Robert Nilsson or Steve Staios - but somehow, I don't see that happening. Besides, it's always nice to talk about hot young prospects when you're a GM trading away a star player, and the Oilers happen to have one who would fit the bill beautifully. Jordan Eberle is a smallish goal-scorer who isn't much of a two-way player either, but just came off a great WJC and would undoubtedly be of interest to the Senators.
My proposed deal looks like this:
- Ottawa: Tom Gilbert, Patrick O'Sullivan, Jordan Eberle
- Edmonton: Dany Heatley
Of course there are any number of complicating factors; the deal could get bigger and we're only taking a shot in the dark here, but I think this deal represents fair value to both parties.
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Oh God.
No. That’s horrendous. The Oilers are losing that trade. You NEVER lose the trade when you trade for the superstar.
Which makes me think they’ll do it.
What would you suggest?
Is Gilbert/O’Sullivan a decent core? What would you suggest?
It's only my opinion, but it's right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 8:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Souray HAS to go in any trade. He won’t go east and Ottawa doesn’t want big salary back. This team cannot hang onto Souray at that number and bring in any another 6MM+ player.
There is no deal to be made without a third team, like San Jose or Anaheim.
Souray and Cogliano to San Jose, Pavelski and Cheechoo to Ottawa and Heatley to Edmonton?
Toss in picks and prospects for grout to make it work for everyone.
But San Jose and Anaheim are right up against the cap – they can’t take on 6M in Salary. Yes, a bunch of Anaheim’s players are free agents, but you know Niedermayer is coming back.
San Jose
They are 10 million under next year with a bunch of RFAs.
Shipping Cheechoo out would put them 13.5 million under. It can work.
My Idea
Trying to keep salaries equal, addressing Ottawa’s need for a high-end puckmover, and giving them one young, cheap asset, I’d start by offering Visnovsky plus Cogliano (caveat: if Lubo will waive his NTC), and if that doesn’t do it, top up the deal with Omark.
My more complex plan will be popping up in the comment section on Lowetide’s site sometime in the next couple hours…
Don't Trade Gilbert
That’s my New Mantra, don’t trade Gilbert.
But I agree on the outline of the package,
Visnovsky, O’Sullivan and a prospect
I’m fine with Eberle, Omark would be nice,
The Oilers are mad at the Ivy leaguer…
10th pick
Jonathan.
I like your trade suggestion.
One niggle . . .
I know you’re no Penner basher (in fact of the folks who use statistical arguments, you’re the one who seems to have the courage of statistical conviction and actually believe Penner’s numbers).
But I don’t agree that Penner does his best work in the offensive zone. Penner is a half-court player. He’s good in the offensive zone and good in the defensive zone, especially along the wall.
He’s not so great in transition.
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jun 10, 2009 10:19 AM MDT reply actions
Penner
I think Penner’s alright in his own end but his lack of speed and agility hurts him there too, IMO.
It's only my opinion, but it's right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions
I agree with David. I would rather see Penner traded away, hes overpaid and would be nice to clear the cap space. I am interested in keeping O’Sullivan, the guys got potential and I’d like to see what he can do with a full season here
I'd like to keep O'Sullivan too
But I doubt Ottawa would do the deal for Penner, and I’d rather move O’Sullivan than Cogliano.
It's only my opinion, but it's right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 10:58 AM MDT up reply actions
I'd tweak the deal a bit.
O’Sullivan, IMO, is the smallish forward to keep, because A) he’s further along, and this team needs to win sooner than later and B) he shoots, a skill that is not duplicated very much in the top six, even if they do land Heatley. He’d provide some offensive support on the second line.
Trade Cogliano. We have too many centers, and of the centers we do have, he’s the one that can’t win face-offs. We’ve also had trouble getting him into the top six, because no matter the circumstances, we simply can’t seem to get him into the top six. His value is… perhaps higher than O’Sullivan’s, because Cogliano is younger and has a more distinct attribute (speed), which would in turn, perhaps allow Edmonton to go a little further down the list and select someone who isn’t their best offensive prospect to send the other way. Perhaps a Riley Nash or a Jeff Petry instead of Eberle.
Gilbert-Cogliano-Nash would be my offer, if I was king for a day.
Fair enough
I think Cogliano will move to LW anyway, and I rate him a little higher than O’Sullivan given his age, speed and obvious scoring ability (although O’Sullivan’s a better 2-way guy) but I can see the argument.
I’d be happy to substitute Petry for Eberle in the deal, but I’d rather hang on to Nash, personally.
It's only my opinion, but it's right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 11:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Man, I should have stopped by here before I commented on why trading Hemsky for Heatley was a bad idea in LT’s comment thread. I even borrowed the same expression.
Onto the trade itself. It might be fair value, but that doesn’t make it a good idea. I’d rather see a few contracts moved for picks to clear cap space and attempt to acquire a big time player via free agency. Gaborik comes to mind. If that doesn’t work, oh well. I think when constructing a team, you have to aim for a window, not just try to have the best possible team for this year. I don’t mind moving a dman, but if you move Gilbert or Grebs, you still have a team that’s not for now (because that team still isn’t good enough to really contend) and not for tomorrow (because of the age of the defense and the young assets given up).
Unless, of course, you move one of the older guys too, and some other salary, and bring in J-Bo, HBomb style. Get a little lucky on the goalie market and maybe you’ve got something for today and tomorrow. But the whole thing better be in place before the first trade is made, otherwise you’re locked into an expensive veteran team that probably isn’t good enough and doesn’t have a lot of room for improvement.
Why pay full value for Heatley? He is a distressed asset like Pronger was. Did Burke pay full value for Heatley?
Gilbert and Moreau should be more than enough to get Heatley. If they want more, Tambo should tell Murray he isn’t interested.
Most of the time, when you’re dealing a star player, you’re dealing from a position of weakness, because all things being equal, you want to keep your best players.
As for the Pronger trade, Burke dealt a good young forward, a good young defencemen, two draft picks and a conditional draft pick. That’s at the high end of the spectrum for packages paid to get star players, and it’s likely because Pronger’s value was high; his cap hit was reasonable and he had just come off what would have been a Conn Smythe worthy playoff performance if his team had won one more game.
Heatley is a comparable star, though he’s not coming off as good a season. Is it so much to say that if we say that Burke paid 4.5 quality assets, that Heatley would demand three? Ottawa probably does not need draft picks, unless we were one of the teams that had a top three pick (and thus, had a shot at someone who might be able to help right away), so they would likely look for two players who are young, on good contracts, and can help now and in the future.
Gilbert (who actually has a great contract for a 40+ point defenceman, especially a young one) and Cogliano fit the bill. A prospect who might be ready in a year or two, instead of longer for a 2009 draft pick, might also help. Maybe they want a prospect more on the cusp, in which case, they might demand Theo Peckham. I’d be wary of giving up a young player that’s on the verge of filling a void on the blue-line, but that sort of player is much easier to find than one like Dany Heatley.
by PaperDesigner on Jun 10, 2009 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m surprised that with the hundreds and hundreds of comments that have been made about this theoretical trade that our old pal Robbie Schremp hasn’t come up. As much as I would love to see Heatley in the Oilers silks, I agree that paying much more than Gilbert and O’Sullivan/Cogliano is too much. If Eberle is “thrown in” to this package, there is a possibility that three medium-high end players are sent away, and that’s simply too much.
Of course Ottawa would press for more, but the deal I’d be most comfortable with is Gilbert, O’Sullivan/Cogliano and SCHREMP. Two decent roster players and a high end prospect (and please note I’m still only calling Eberle a prospect) makes me too nervous.
I just couldn't help myself...
When I read your proposal, this leapt to mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_P-v1BVQn8
sorry!
I don’t think Cogliano is necessary in your trade proposal. That Heatley contract is an absolute albatross for Ottawa to trade. I think a combination of Gilbert or (my preference) Grebeshkov and Jordan Eberle is enough to get the deal done.
I was unaware that Visnovsky’s contract had a no movement clause in it, and can’t find any reliable source to disprove my theory. Can someone provide? I am working under the assumption that because Visnovsky was moved the day before his new contract kicked in with LA, his NMC was nullified. I know Lowe mentioned last year that they (the Oilers) would honour it, but there’s a new GM round these parts remember.
My original idea was to offer Visnovsky straight up for Heatley, and I think that’s another option that should be explored. We deal from a position of strength (many top-4 defenders) to address multiple weaknesses (goal scoring, size in the top-6, someone who can keep up to Hemsky). That’s a win in my books.
Visnovsky's NMC
I was going off of Lowe’s comments; you may be right that things have changed with a new GM.
It's only my opinion, but it's right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.
by Jonathan Willis on Jun 10, 2009 5:23 PM MDT up reply actions
If a trade does go down between these two teams, I wonder if Chorney could be going the other way (obviuosly not as the centerpiece). Having been Brian Lee’s defense partner at UND and the fact that he outplayed him in their one year together, I think he could be a guy the Ottawa scouts had seen a lot of when they were going to North Dakota to see how Lee was progressing. Considering he played so well that year, they might put the bug in Murray’s ear about the kid much like the Oiler scouts did with Gilbert when Lowe was looking for a new home for Salo.
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