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Department of Obvious Statements: 20 Players Dress Every Night

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There's an interesting discussion going on over at OilersNation about the relative value of Ales Hemsky.  Several posters have taken a position that he simply isn't good enough offensively to lead the Oilers anywhere above the 8th playoff spot.

It's a position that fans of every team seem to take at some point; some examples would be "Joe Thornton can't lead his team in the playoffs" (connected to this is the older notion that "Pavel Datsyuk can't score in the playoffs") or "you can't win with Brett Hull".  It's bogus.  With the exception of some goaltenders (see for example Marty Turco, circa 2008-09) no one player can single-handedly doom or propel his team anywhere.

Star-divide

A great example of this is one of the greatest players ever to play the game: Mario Lemieux.

Mario Lemieux was drafted first overall by Pittsburgh in 1984.  He made the team the following year and won the Stanley Cup with them seven years later, in 1991.  However, for the six years preceding that Stanley Cup win, the Penguins struggled.

This wasn't Lemieux's fault; over those six seasons he put up incredible statistics:

  • 427GP - 345G - 493A - 838PTS 

Despite that incredible offensive output, Lemieux's Penguins made the playoffs once in those six seasons.  Was Lemieux to blame for this?  Of course not, because it's a team game.  In fact, Lemieux won numerous awards for his own play, being named to either the first or second all-star team four times, winning the Lester B. Pearson Award and Art Ross trophy twice, and also winning a Hart and Calder trophy in that six year span. 

20 players dress for every team, every night.  On forward, especially an impact forward, can have a large influence on how the team performs, but he can't single-handedly lead them to success or failure.  This should be obvious to everyone.

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Hell, let’s look back at that ’91 team and see how many of the big pieces got there:

  • Jaromir Jagr, Bryan Trottier, and Joe Mullen all arrived at the start of the season, though Mullen only played half the year (injury?).
  • Paul Coffey had been there two and a half seasons by that point, after being traded by the Oilers for Craig Simpson due to a holdout. Tom Barrasso had come over less than two years earlier from Buffalo.
  • Kevin Stevens and Mark Recchi were both in their second full seasons as an NHLers.
  • Larry Murphy and Jiri Hrdina were midseason replacements from Minnesota and Calgary, respectively, while Ron Francis was a deadline acquisition from Hartford.

So besides Lemieux and maybe Bob Errey, how many key contributors to that team had been there since the mid-80s? (I honestly don’t know what the relative contribution of a guy like Troy Loney was.) I think this was a team that very much came together in the last couple of years before their ultimate victory, and the fact that they had to bring in all those guys before they finally won is the perfect demonstration of your point. Good call, Jonathan.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on May 4, 2009 12:10 PM MDT reply actions  

Oh, I forgot Grant Jennings and Ulf “Knee Hunter” Samuelsson, from that same deal with Hartford. Cam Neely’s career says hi.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on May 4, 2009 12:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks for this. You’re right in that it is something that should be patently obvious, but clearly isn’t.

by smyttysmullet on May 4, 2009 3:49 PM MDT reply actions  

Well, you’re obviously correct. But when people make the point that Hemsky can’t lead us above eighth, the unspoken assumption is that in a cap world you can only have so many marquee offensive talents, and if Hemsky’s your flagship you’re probably not going to be a Cup team. In other words, Lemieux + that supporting cast = Cup winner, while Hemsky + whatever supporting cast you can afford under the cap = 8th place.

I have no idea whether any of that’s true, but I do think interpreting the argument as “no team with Ales Hemsky on it can possibly win” is somewhat strawman-ish.

by sarcasticidealist on May 4, 2009 8:14 PM MDT reply actions  

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