The Rather Surprising Shootout Specialist...

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 30, 2009 4:22 PM MDT

Seventeen players currently on the Oilers roster have participated in an NHL shootout. Six of them have failed to score a goal (Gilbert Brule has the worst mark at 0-for-4), but eleven others have. The leader may surprise you (he certainly did me):

Jason Strudwick: 100% (1 attempt)
Shawn Horcoff: 55.6% (9 attempts)
Ales Kotalik: 52.6% (38 attempts)
Robert Nilsson: 50.0% (14 attempts)
Sheldon Souray: 50% (2 attempts)
Fernando Pisani: 46.2% (13 attempts)
Patrick O'Sullivan: 44.4% (18 attempts)
Ales Hemsky: 33.3% (42 attempts)
Lubomir Visnovsky: 33.3% (3 attempts)
Marc Pouliot: 33.3% (3 attempts)
Sam Gagner: 32.0% (25 attempts)

This really isn't rocket science; if I were a coach I'd practice it a dozen times a year and keep track, and whoever did the best in practice would be used in game situations. As it stands (assuming Kotalik is kept) next year I would run Kotalik, Horcoff and Nilsson as my three shooters, with Pisani and O'Sullivan as alternates.

The shootout is a completely different competition than the actual game, so it makes little sense to keep running out skill players (Hemsky, Gagner) who aren't experiencing success.

Also, I'm guessing that Jason Strudwick's goal occurred during that marathon game while he was Ranger (the one where Marek Malik scored this beauty).

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Horc

I’ve never understood why MacT didn’t give him more cracks at it. He’s never looked bad, and it seems to me a > 50% must put him in at least the upper half of the league.

Everybody remembers Gagner’s early rookie season shootouts. Eliminate his SO goals before, say, January 2007, and how does he look since?

by snowcrashmike on May 1, 2009 7:02 AM MDT reply actions

sigh. 2008. Can’t type. Or think.

by snowcrashmike on May 1, 2009 7:06 AM MDT up reply actions

I don’t disagree at all. And since 33% seems to be about the average level of performance, why stick with either Gagner or Hemsky?

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on May 1, 2009 11:06 AM MDT up reply actions

One thing to consider...

… and I say this without a statistic to back me up, because I haven’t looked it up, but I would guess that the percentage of goals scored in the shootout is around 25%.

Strudwick’s stat can be flat out ignored because… it’s Jason Strudwick.

As for guys like Horcoff, I agree he should shoot more, but I wouldn’t say more than Hemsky. Nine attempts is a limited sample size over four years when you compare it to Hemsky’s 42 attempts.

At that many shots, even someone with the skill of Hemsky would revert somewhat closer to the league average – and same with Gagner with his 25 attempts.

Sure after nine shots Horcoff is shooting over 50%, but if he got 10 attempts next season, I would guess his career average would hover back down around 30%.

love, mike

by oakland ehs on May 1, 2009 12:49 PM MDT reply actions

You don’t think that Hemsky’s average should be above the league average if he’s a particularly good one-on-one player? I think what we’re seeing is that the shootout just isn’t his strong point, but then again the only players we’ve seen enough to be relatively sure of are Hemsky & Kotalik. Hence my practic and record suggestion ;)

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on May 1, 2009 4:12 PM MDT up reply actions

Strudwick’s stat can be flat out ignored because… it’s Jason Strudwick.

Yep. It’s a curiousity, not much else.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on May 1, 2009 4:15 PM MDT up reply actions

Quite probably Horc’s average would drop. But why not give him that chance?

by snowcrashmike on May 2, 2009 12:10 AM MDT up reply actions

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