Time and Opportunity: Even-Strength

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 30, 2009 1:41 PM MDT

Over at OilersNation I did a post on Andrew Cogliano , and a number of comments were made to the effect that Cogliano hadn’t received much ice-time in the top-six. I remembered it that way too, but it got me wondering: did he deserve more ice-time, based on his level of production.

With that in mind, I decided it would be interesting to compare even-strength ice-time to even-strength offensive performance. The chart below shows the average amount of even-strength ice-time each forward received per game (from NHL.com), as well as their even-strength PTS/60 (from behindthenet.ca ). Items which caught my attention are in bold.

Shawn Horcoff: 14:19 TOI - 1.59 PTS/60
Ales Hemsky: 14:18 TOI – 2.08 PTS/60
Patrick O’Sullivan: 14:11 TOI – 1.69 PTS/60
Sam Gagner: 13:24 TOI – 1.69 PTS/60
Robert Nilsson: 12:39 TOI – 1.22 PTS/60
Fernando Pisani: 12:36 TOI – 1.81 PTS/60
Ales Kotalik: 12:35 TOI – 1.38 PTS/60
Ethan Moreau: 12:34 TOI – 1.50 PTS/60
Andrew Cogliano: 11:51 TOI – 1.69 PTS/60
Dustin Penner: 11:49 TOI – 1.71 PTS/60
Marc Pouliot: 10:19 TOI – 1.67 PTS/60
Kyle Brodziak: 9:52 TOI – 1.62 PTS/60
Liam Reddox: 9:13 TOI – 1.43 PTS/60
Zack Stortini: 7:12 TOI – 1.76 PTS/60
Steve MacIntyre: 3:49 TOI – 1.43 PTS/60

Obviously offensive production isn’t the sole criteria for ice-time, but it is an important one. The three players I’ve highlighted are particularly interesting, since most people would likely agree that Kotalik and Nilsson provide marginal defensive benefits; scoring is their chief purpose in the lineup.

At the same time, Fernando Pisani provides a needed defensive presence but his scoring numbers this season were excellent, second only to Ales Hemsky on the team. It’s a little bizarre that these three should have been treated similarly by the coach when common sense would say that with those scoring rates Fernando Pisani deserves more ice-time and the other two less.

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Of course, one could counter by saying that if Pisani were run out longer, he might lose his effectiveness due to changes in role or simply having more ice time in the denominator. Still, I’ve been a proponent of 34 as a potential 20-goal man, and while that ship has probably now sailed, it’s nice to see he can still chip in from the “third” line.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there)

by Doogie2K on Apr 30, 2009 4:55 PM MDT reply actions

Pisani might be getting the short-end of the stick in part because MacT didn’t have anyone else to throw onto the RW of the checking line.

Pisani looked pretty good for stretches when paired with Gagner and Nilsson in 07-08. Maybe he’d get more time there if the team had a viable RW for the checking role.

by Jon Kerber on Apr 30, 2009 5:17 PM MDT reply actions

Just floating an idea...

Something that’s gone by the wayside the last little while was the notion of Horcoff-Pisani forming two-thirds of a tough-minutes line, perhaps with O’Sullivan on LW. Something like this:

O’Sullivan – Horcoff – Pisani
Penner – Gagner – Hemsky

with Gagner’s line taking on the secondary toughs. It’s a thought, anyway.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 30, 2009 5:32 PM MDT reply actions

Scott

Did you use Kotalik’s stats for his time as an Oiler or his EV stats overall? It seems like if you’re going to make a judgment about how the coach is using these players it’s important to only include his actual use of them. Pisani’s ice time is probably also greatly effected by the fact that he was out for so many games. It’s possible (though I haven’t checked) that the coach brought him back slowly in his first few games both in terms of role and in terms of actual ice time. Finally, it also takes time for these things to work themselves out. Nilsson deserved his ice time early in the year because of his performance the year before. It was probably a quarter of the season before MacTavish started taking some of that time away. It might be instructive (though I’m not sure that it’s possible) to break these results down into halves or quarters to see how MacTavish responded to good/poor scoring results.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 30, 2009 5:37 PM MDT reply actions

Scott has it right. BtN doesn’t differentiate between Buffalo or Edmonton stats. Logically speaking, he would rank a lot higher for his Edmonton time:

19 GP, 8 ESP… assume he played 14 minutes per game at ES, 14 * 19 = 266 minutes, so 8 ESP in 266 minutes or ~1.80 ESP/60.

Explaining Nilsson, he was just always played with Gagner when he was in the line-up, so he either got nice minutes or he sat in the press box. Cogliano simply got played on a slightly defensive line and the coach didn’t trust him to play hockey in his own end, so he got skipped on shifts where Kyle Brodziak would take his place.

by Quain on Apr 30, 2009 6:19 PM MDT reply actions

Why I Did Things This Way

I thought about including only Edmonton numbers for Kotalik and O’Sullivan, but since I was mostly looking at the individual players performance relative to opportunity over the season rather than critiquing the coaching I thought this was better.

The facts that it was easier this way and that I’m lazy are purely coincidental, I assure you.

It's only my opinion, but it's right.

Writer for The Copper & Blue, OilersNation, and CanucksArmy.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 30, 2009 7:20 PM MDT reply actions

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