Edmonton - Toronto post-game: How do you spell reLeaf?
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 31, 2009 1:02 AM MST
in Game Reports
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PrintHey, you play enough games and sooner or later you're going to run into a team that's even shittier than you. Thankfully, such a team arrived at Rexall Place tonight in the familiar blue-and-white garb of the Toronto Maple Leafs (sic). Thus endeth the losing streak.
All sorts of odd things happened in this one, the Oilers' first win since December 11 and first on home ice since November 23. Jeff Deslauriers had an outstanding game between the pipes, carrying a shutout into the late going and even contributing an assist to the cause. The Oiler powerplay was the difference - meant in a positive sense for a change - by converting both of its opportunities. More surprising than that was that both powerplay goals were credited to one Patrick O'Sullivan, whose powerplay "production" heading in tonight dawdled at a Tobyesque 1.12 points per 60. Shawn Horcoff was a plus player. So was J.-F. Jacques. JFJ even won a fight!
The Leafs outshot the Oilers by the relatively modest margin of 28-23, but seemingly had instructions to shoot from everywhere. They sent no fewer than 76 pucks in the general direction of JDD, although 26 of them missed the target and another 22 were blocked by Oilers defenders. At even strength the Leafs attempted 21 more shots than the Oil. This resulted in a very odd split of Corsi stats, in that the first two Oiler defence pairs actually had positive ratings while the third was absolutely overwhelmed. Indeed, Denis Grebeshkov posted the worst Corsi rating I have ever seen (in relatively limited samples) at -33; during his < 18 minutes on the ice at evens the Oilers attempted just 4 shots, the Leafs 37! His defence partner Steve Staios was barely better at -27 in 2.5 fewer minutes. This is not a pairing destined to last long or end well.
More stats after the jump:
Faceoffs (minimum 3):
Penner 3/4 = 75%
Stortini 2/3 = 67%
Brule 2/3 = 67%
Horcoff 11/18 = 61%
O'Sullivan 8/14 = 57% (!)
Gagner 4/7 = 57%
Cogliano 2/5 = 40%
Potulny 0/5 = 0%
Oilers 32/59 = 54%
6 guys in the black is a very positive sign.
Corsi by line (in order of EV TOI):
Gagner -5, Nilsson -8, Penner -9
Brule -10, Jacques -11, Horcoff -12
Stone +6, Potulny -4, O'Sullivan -5
Stortini +1, Moreau -2, Cogliano -4
Souray +5, Gilbert +5
Smid +6, Visnovsky +2
Staios -27, Grebeshkov -33
Oilers -21
I still can't get over that distribution along the blue.
O'Sullivan: 2-0-2, 5 shots, 2 hits, 1 block, 8/14 = 57%, even
Jacques: 0-1-1, 5 PiM, 5 hits, +1
Stone: 1 shot, 4 hits, 3 takeaways, 1 block, even
Deslauriers: 27/28 = .964, 0-1-1, W
Stortini: 2 shots, 3 hits, 2/3 = 67%, even
Visnovsky: 0 shots, 5 attempted shots, 4 giveaways, 5 blocks, even
Gagner: 0 shots, 3 giveaways, even
A shocking 30 giveaways on the event summary, but Oilers won the battle of takeaways (14-10), hits (26-20), and blocked shots (22-16) as well as faceoffs, indicating they at least joined the puck battle with enthusiasm if not very protective of the disc once they got it. One thing I will not question from this outing is effort.
* * *
Next up: at Calgary, Thursday December 31, 19:00 MST
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The Leafs outshot the Oilers by the relatively modest margin of 28-23, but seemingly had instructions to shoot from everywhere. They sent no fewer than 76 pucks in the general direction of JDD, although 26 of them missed the target and another 22 were blocked by Oilers defenders.
That’s every Leafs game.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And wouldn’t you know, Toronto has a strongly positive Corsi but a negative PDO (.960). If you believe Corsi as the be-all and end-all they’re a good team. (!) I believe Corsi tells us something about a team’s tendencies, maybe a little less about their actual talent.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 31, 2009 11:52 AM MST up reply actions
Fun fact I learned from my linguistics class a few years back: “Maple Leaf,” as a proper noun (like the coin, not the plant detritus), does not take the irregular pluralization that “leaf” does.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Well, it’s a bad day when one doesn’t learn anything. This is a good day. Thanks Doogie. :)
The Leafs aren’t sic after all, they’re just sick.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 31, 2009 11:47 AM MST up reply actions
I’m not making excuses, but when was the last time you saw the Staios/Grebeskov pairing hop over the boards when the puck was headed up ice? I’m actually slightly more concerned about the top line’s corsi since that’s pretty much the only time they step on the ice. Visnovsky, as good as he’s been for us, is used a lot in the same way. It’s the right move for a coach to make, but it can really have a profound effect on how good a player looks on the ice, as well as his Corsi number. That’s why a stat like corsi shouldn’t even be used without something like zoneshift to provide some context.
It’s a lot harder to look good when the other team already has the puck in your end when you start your shift.
Good points, YKM. However, I can’t remember the last time I saw a defence pair change “when the other team already has the puck in your end”. ZoneStart is a clue, although by definition there is no possession, it’s a faceoff. Last night’s example is so extreme — +4/-37 for Grebs for goodness sake — that it might be worth going over the game sheets to try to reconstruct where they started, who they were on with and against, even which team won the draws, see if there’s any clues in there. I’ll try to do that if/when I get a little time.
I will also watch a little closer tonight for specifics of circumstances when that pairing is out there. Assuming they still are a pairing. :)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 31, 2009 3:39 PM MST up reply actions
well, no. Obviously there aren’t many (any) line changes made when the other team has the puck in your end, but I also didn’t say they did.
I like zonestat because it’s the best tool I think that’s avaiiable at the moment (and will be until the NHL starts tracking/reporting time of posession), and when you’re talking about Corsi, which is the end result, you need the starting point before it starts to tell you anything. It’s also much less of an indication of effectiveness for a defenseman who’s starting in his own end who also happens to play on a team that can’t win a faceoff to save their life.
I mean, look at the underlying numbers for Smid and Grebeshkov over the last 2 years. Last year, Smid was Staios’ partner on the 3rd pairing, sharing Staios’ PK/defsive zone responsibility, and Grebeshkov was paired with Visnovsky which meant he shared in that role. The numbers loved Grebs last year and hated Smid, now it’s a complete reversal this year. How much of it is the role they’re put in, and how much is it is because of Smid becoming a much more effective player overnight and Grebeshkov falling down an elevator shaft? I think the former has far more to do with it than the latter.
Again, I’m not trying to make excuses, I just think how a player is used will have far more of an effect on what he looks like by the numbers (and to the eye) than gets mentioned.
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