What to do with the Oilers' forwards - The Bonafides
The Edmonton Oilers have three bonafide NHL players up front and that's it. A team that ran Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Ryan Smyth, Raffi Torres, Michael Peca, Fernando Pisani, Sergei Samsonov, Jarret Stoll and Radek Dvorak just four years ago now has only three guys that are capable of holding their own in any situation. These three have all taken heat for Edmonton's ills one time or another and there have been fans calling for trades of each of them for awhile. Apparently, the "let the kids play" system that's been tried for the last three years hasn't been given enough time to work. Anyway, will these guys be going anywhere? Are they worth their cap hits?
Ales Hemsky has somehow caught the ire of certain portions of the fanbase and it's extremely hard to figure out how this happened. Craig MacTavish took a smooth-skating, slick-passing wunderkund and turned him into a tough minutes outscorer. Since the lockout, Hemsky has played 313 games and amassed 289 points, a .92 PPG rate. That rate puts him in the top 20 scorers in the league since the lockout, all scored against the toughest opposition. Hemsky's cap hit is a paltry $4.1 million and his contract has two more years left. The nineteen players with higher scoring rates than Hemsky have an average cap hit of $6.94 million. He's an exceptional power play talent as well and he's proven his mettle in the playoffs with 17 points in 24 games during Edmonton's trip to the cup finals four years ago. All of this and he's still only 26 years old.
Hemsky is Edmonton's best forward since Doug Weight. Yes, Ales Hemsky is better than Ryan Smyth. For the Oilers to go anywhere next year or in 2011-2012, Ales Hemsky will have to have the keys to the kingdom.
Shawn Horcoff has taken a beating from the fanbase since the moment he inked his $5.5 million per year contract extension. Now he's starting to take beatings from the media as well. What is Horcoff? He's a rare bird. He's a tough minutes, outscoring center, one of only a handful in the league. He's paid the average going rate for such a player. He's having an off year this season, but he's struggling with what is believed to be an injury to his labrum. Even with an injured shoulder, he still leads the team in qualcomp, yet he's 7th out of 12 in qualteam. He's facing the toughest possible competition with the likes of Patrick O'Sullivan and Jean-Francois Jacques.
There is no one on the team that can come close to fulfilling the role that Horcoff does for the Oilers. There is no one in the system that can take on his role in the next three to five years. Players of his ilk don't grow on trees, so finding a replacement via free agency isn't possible. Shawn Horcoff will be doing the heavy lifting for the Oilers for the foreseeable future unless they can trade him for a younger version of himself.
Dustin Penner is good. Regular readers already know that because I've written extensively in his defense. He's been a microstats poster boy in the past, but this year the puck has started going into the net for him. His pace slowed a bit recently, but his performance has opened the eyes of those that don't care about underlying stats as to his ability and value. The expiration of Penner's $4.25 million per year deal coincides with Hemsky's deal, and like Hemsky, the Oilers have no one on the team or in the system that can match Penner's skill set. Unless the Oilers package him for a whale, like they attempted to do this summer during Heatleygate, the Oilers will need Penner to have any chance at making and advancing in the postseason.
The three of these forwards have combined to be a power-vs-power line before, averaging a goal-a-game. They combine for an amazingly cap-friendly $13.85 million per year and will be in place for at least until the 2012 trade deadline. Those fans and writers that blame the OIlers' faults on any of these three are delusional, at best.
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As wrong as you are about Moreau, you are bang on about this ;)
Edmonton has a chance to do something very right here…. keep this line on the top (comparable to the Smyth-Horcoff-Hemmer line of 05-06), have the kids grow and develop more into a soft-opp killer, keep the blueline in check.
That gives you 2 very good lines and a solid D-core.
All that’s left are some veteran (low cost ones) and solid goaltending. Scour for the guys who are decent players but are having issues finding a team (there’s 6 or 7 of them every year).
Add in a guy like a MPS or an Eberle (or say a Hall???) who may be ready to contribute somewhere on the team and I think you’ve got a pretty good grouping.
Division winning-calibre I might add…
Edmonton has a chance to do something very right here…
Unfortunately, they likely won’t.
Scour for the guys who are decent players but are having issues finding a team (there’s 6 or 7 of them every year).
Two years and they haven’t done that.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
While I agree we have a lack of complete players, Horcoff is not that player anymore. Yes, he used to be a good two-way center but he is borderline useless now. “Outscoring center” can not be used in the same sentence as him anymore. -21 is shocking and even if he has a shoulder problem that is unacceptable. I think if I had his skating ability and had only one arm I could put up better stats than him.
He’s playing the toughs with Patrick O’Sullivan and J.F. Jacques.
The Oilers ES sv pct while he’s on the ice is 85.8
The goalies are killing him in addition to chugging up and down the ice with some goofs.
The telling stat on Horcoff is scoring chance differential.
Horcoff’s scoring chance differential per 15 minutes is -.342
That’s better than Brule, Nilsson, Cogliano, O’Sullivan, Jacques, Stortini, Moreau. And Horcoff is playing the toughs. Only Stone, Penner, Gagner and Potulny have better chance differential.
Horcoff is doing his job, his linemates and the goalies are not. Even if he could just get a pedestrian .900 ES Sv pct from his goaltenders, he would be -6. -6 against the toughs with a bum shoulder and JF Jacques is a helluva year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Shawn Horcoff has a relative +/- of -2.75 (worst among Oiler regulars), a QUALCOMP of 0.027, and a QUALTEAM of -0.030.
Ryan Stone has a relative +/- of 0.96, a QUALCOMP of 0.019, and a QUALTEAM of -0.400.
Discuss.
by Benjamin Massey on Dec 30, 2009 10:11 AM PST reply actions
Shawn Horcoff is playing with one arm, and should’ve been kept out of the lineup until it healed.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Oh, and as Derek pointed out, he hasn’t exactly spent the year with Hemsky and Penner.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
How about Shawn Horcoff package for Rod Brind’Amor? :) No point in only having the guy with the second worst plus/minus in the league when you can go for number 1.
Dive for Five, baby!
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
If they get the second overall, a competent management team could turn this into a division contender in a summer.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay, sorry for the sarcasm… I started an OIlers blog during the most inauspicious time. People are starting to care less and less about this team this season. Heck even Lowetide’s post today made me feel even more sad. :)
Jonathan Willis did a post a while back (?Link) that showed Horcoff had a career season in terms of PDO number prior to being re-signed. He’s not get any younger and his shoulder problems reek of chronicity.
It’s a valiant attempt to defend him based on his previous stats with Hemsky, but I don’t think his contract will look any better next season or the three afterwards.
Jonathan Willis did a post a while back (?Link) that showed Horcoff had a career season in terms of PDO number prior to being re-signed. He’s not get any younger and his shoulder problems reek of chronicity
.
And now his PDO number is the worst on the team. Bad luck this year, I’m afraid.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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