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The Art Of The Deal, Lessons for Steve Tambellini

I took a look at Kevin Lowe's last few years and came to the conclusion that his desperation to land players often left him exposed at the bargaining table.  Perhaps it was that desperation that led to Lowe being asked to move upstairs to the executive offices so that Steve Tambellini could take his place.  Tambellini has been General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers for sixteen months now, but has his record been any better?

Star-divide

2006_vancouver_canucks_4405_medium

Compare Lowe's desperate record to that of Steve Tambellini's since taking over as general manager on July 31, 2008:

Summer 2008:
Signed no one
Claimed Steve MacIntyre off of waivers
Claimed Jesse Boulerice off of waivers

2008-2009 Season:
Traded Mathieu Garon to Pittsburgh for Dany Sabourin, Ryan Stone and a 4th Round Draft Pick
Traded Erik Cole to Carolina for Patrick O'Sullivan, and a 2nd Round Pick
Traded a 2nd Round Draft Pick in 2009 to Buffalo for Ales Kotalik

Summer 2009:
Signed Nikolai Khabibulin to a four year, $3,750,000 per year contract
Signed Mike Comrie to a one year, $1,250,000 contract to play wing.
Waived Rob Schremp

I'll not rehash the extremely poor Khabibulin signing, as I said my piece before free agency even started.  The Cole trade was very good, but wasting a 2nd round pick on a power play point specialist was very bad.  The key to analyzing Steve Tambellini is looking at what he's yet to do.

One of the illusions of life is that the present hour is not the critical, decisive hour.

--Ralph Waldo Emerson, Society and Solitude, Chapter VII Works and Days

One of the illusions that the Oilers as an organization operate under is that early season games are meant to be used as a testing ground.  The early season is a time to watch an unbalanced roster perform as an unbalanced team.  It's a time to experiment with people out of position and outside of their abilities.  Presumably, the team believes that early season points don't matter as much as late-season points and that points can always be made up later.  This sentiment filtered throughout the organization as evidenced by soundbites and quotes in the media.  That it was the overriding philosophy is not a surprise - the Oilers are an organization filled with remnants of dynastic nepotism and old-boy hiring - their philosophies will fall into lockstep as they all owe their jobs to each other. 

That's why it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Steve Tambellini shares this same approach.  Tambellini has insisted that he needs to see the Oilers completely healthy before evaluating them and that health is the primary reason the team is not winning.  This is the same G.M. that has known that the Oilers desperately need a center and a tough-minutes winger since taking the job, yet he has done nothing to fill those holes in the roster.  Healthy or not, the team still needs a center and a winger, and he must realize that. It was a mistake that Kevin Lowe left him needing to fill these holes, but it was a mistake that needed to be corrected immediately.

Tambellini has had two offseasons and 109 games to correct the mistake, but instead he continues to wait.  He waits for health, he waits for development time, he waits for his powers of observation to kick in.  However, yesterday, he offered a statement that makes this waiting even harder to understand.  During a press conference, Tambellini said the following words "Yeah, I’m not concerned about next season at this point."  If he's not concerned about next season, which I would assume means he's trying to field the best team possible right now, why has he avoided filling these two obvious roster holes for sixteen months?

Why does he continue to dither about?

If the Oilers are going to try some level of a rebuild, get to it.  Clear out some contracts, move some of the middling players and commit to a rebuild, even if it's only a one-year job.  Forget about the other center and winger.  Make a decision and stick with it.  If the Oilers are going to try to win this year, they need to clear out some of the replacement-level players on the roster and add in an NHL center and a winger.  Edmonton can't do both, and they can't continue to do neither.  It's been the critical, decisive hour for sixteen months and the Oilers have nothing to show for it, thanks to Steve Tambellini.

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Good stuff.

why has he avoided filling these two obvious roster holes for sixteen months?

It seems there is two options here:

1.) He tried but was unsuccessful. It’s possible, I suppose, but given some of his other moves (trading Brodziak for a nominal return) and the amount of available, low-priced options this summer it doesn’t strike me as probable.

2.) He doesn’t see the roster holes. This probably strikes you as unrealistic, but from closely watching NHL coaches and GM’s the last 5 years or so I’ve come to a conclusion that a non-trivial portion of them aren’t really that good at evaluating talent.

by Kent Wilson on Dec 1, 2009 5:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

2.) He doesn’t see the roster holes. This probably strikes you as unrealistic, but from closely watching NHL coaches and GM’s the last 5 years or so I’ve come to a conclusion that a non-trivial portion of them aren’t really that good at evaluating talent.

I agree wholeheartedly with your piece and I’m sure it’s the answer. It’s just a whole different level of distressing if it is the answer.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Dec 1, 2009 5:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought the Kotalik deal was great. The bad part was not resigning him, when he was clearly interested in resigning. That money spent on O’Sullivan and Comrie and Nilsson would’ve been better spent on Kotalik’s experience, size, and cannon of a point shot.

RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.

by raventalon40 on Dec 1, 2009 9:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I thought the Kotalik deal was great.

He’s a completely one-dimensional player moving to a team that had that dimension covered with Souray.

The bad part was not resigning him, when he was clearly interested in resigning. That money spent on O’Sullivan and Comrie and Nilsson would’ve been better spent on Kotalik’s experience, size, and cannon of a point shot.

He’s horrible at even strength. Horrible. Always has been.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Dec 2, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

O'Sullivan deal a good one? I can't see it.

Since Lowe is director of hockey ops, it’s him making trades, and Tambellini is his assistant.

How was the O’Sullivan trade a good one?

Lowe and Co. give up Erik Cole during a playoff stretch run, the one real tough and also somewhat effective forward on team, a guy who meshes well with Gagner and kills penalties.

Cole also has an expiring contract, which should be a prized thing under this new CBA. If the Oilers don’t like him at the end of the year, he’s gone, but it’s not like they have lost him and gained nothing. That was the old way of thinking.

In fact, they have gained $3 million in cap space, and that would have been extremely useful last summer, when bargains were to be had. They would have that money to sign UFAs in the summer, useful and cheap players such as, possibly, off the top of my head, Betts or Joel Ward or Malhotra, or maybe even Jay Bouwmeester!

Instead of that, the Oilers get a small, soft skilled player in O’Sullivan with OK offensive stats (likely from teaming up with Brown and/or Kopitar) who can’t play a lick fo defence and eats up $3 million a year in cap for two years?

Did they not scout O’Sullivan properly? Maybe they just fixated on his deceptively good Corsi plus/minus.

Also, the Oiles lose Cole, but they still want to make the playoffs, so they have to trade a bit of the future to rent Kotalik, an OK player, though not in any way a physical player. Never saw him screen or drive the net once. At least they didn’t waste money signing him to a big long-term deal.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Dec 2, 2009 8:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Instead of that, the Oilers get a small, soft skilled player in O’Sullivan with OK offensive stats (likely from teaming up with Brown and/or Kopitar) who can’t play a lick fo defence and eats up $3 million a year in cap for two years?

Did they not scout O’Sullivan properly? Maybe they just fixated on his deceptively good Corsi plus/minus.

They may have been a victim of a pump and dump, but honestly, O’Sullivan is better than most of what they have in house and I think would be much more effective with better linemates. I’m down on him now, but I’m also willing to give him a chance.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Dec 2, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Also. At that time we all liked that deal. O’sully was voted as the best defensive forward by LA kings one same season ago.

by SumOil on Dec 2, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They may have been a victim of a pump and dump

Pump, dump and slump

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 2, 2009 5:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair to the Oilers the part of the future they gave up to replace Cole was acquired by trading Cole. It would have been impossible for them to keep both Cole and the 2nd they used to get Kotalik.

by Scott Reynolds on Dec 2, 2009 10:11 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If I sound a bit sour, it’s not at you, Derek, it’s at this management team of the Oilers. Their decisions since the summer of ’07 have made little sense to me.

They’ve been so desperate to hit a home run, they have just struck out every second time at bat. In baseball, that will get you released.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Dec 2, 2009 8:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

They’ve been so desperate to hit a home run, they have just struck out every second time at bat. In baseball, that will get you released.

More frustrating still, when they do get a base hit, their attention wanders and they get picked off first base. (Hejda, Glencross)

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Dec 2, 2009 5:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The starting point has to be a realistic assessment of the team. 2009/10 is a write-off. They need to get the best draft position possible, not pick up some 3rd line guys to fill holes. They need to find out who can play in 2010 and later. And they need to get some value for the guys who won’t be here then, if possible, whether it’s Staois/Moreau/Comrie/O’Sullivan or whoever.

The good thing is that their farm system looks like it is starting to kick out some players plus they are going to get a quality first rounder next year.

by ehteam on Dec 2, 2009 9:34 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wasn’t so down on the trade when it happened, I admit. But I also think I was wrong.

Now, O’Sullivan did look good to me last season, even if he didn’t score.

But he’s got to start checking someone, anyone, in his own end. . . .

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Dec 2, 2009 12:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I wasn’t so down on the trade when it happened, I admit. But I also think I was wrong.

Results-oriented thinking kills puppies.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Dec 2, 2009 6:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think O’Sullivan will come around. To me, if Horcoff goes down, it’ll be Patrick O’Sullivan picking up some of his slack. They need to get him to take pride in his defensive game the way Horcoff does. Brule is their only other option, but they need him with Gagner & Penner IMO (unless O’Sullivan slides in making Brule the Horc replacement).

by RossCreek on Dec 2, 2009 8:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 72 44 24 4 92
Colorado 70 40 24 6 86
Calgary 71 36 26 9 81
Minnesota 71 34 31 6 74
Edmonton 71 22 42 7 51

(updated 3.21.2010 at 5:42 AM PDT)

23 - 42 - 7

Won 2

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:25)

Gilbert (22:10)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:29)

Grebeshkov (17:16)

Points:

Penner (53)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (26)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (27)

Visnovsky (22)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.145)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (178)

Gilbert (82)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.470)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.011)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.950)

Gilbert (4.279)

SCDiff/15:

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