Oilers v. Avalanche - Luke 18:9-14
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 9:30 AM MST
in Game-Day Threads
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PrintEdmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, Nov 8, 2009 6:00 PM MST
Then Jesus came across some who were confident in their team, a team that looked down on everyone else from the top of the standings and so he told them this parable:
"Two men walk into a bar, one a fan of the Avalanche, the other a fan of the Oilers. The fan of the Avalanche stood up and prayed about himself loudly saying, 'God I thank you that our team is not like other teams - like the Oilers, Thrashers or Panthers - and that I myself am not wallowing in misery like this pathetic Oiler fan. We win at least twice a week and every day I give thanks for our new goaltender.' But the fan of the Oilers watched the game with his face in his hands; he could barely watch. He slammed his head to the bar and whispered over and over, 'God have mercy on me, an Oiler fan.' I tell you today that it is this man and not the one filled with hubris who went home justified before God. For everyone who exalts himself before God will be humbled and he who humbles himself before God will be exalted."
Edmonton Oilers (7-8-1) @ Colorado Avalanche (12-3-2)
Pepsi Center, 6:00 P.M. MDT
Television: Sportsnet West
More analysis after the jump...
Visiting Team Scouting Report: So are they for real? No. Jonathan Willis continues to prophesy doom for the Avalanche this year and I'm inclined to agree with him. The Avalanche have been consistently outshot and (I know because I'm counting) outchanced all season. Jonathan compared their early season run to one put up by the Ottawa Senators a couple of years ago. I'll compare it to a team that has a lot in common with this group: the 2008-09 Florida Panthers. That club had a run from January 3rd to February 13th where they went 12-3-3 which, if the Avs lose in overtime tonight (and I'd be fine with that result!) would match their opening to the season exactly. If we take out the shoot-out goals the Panthers goal differential over that time was +20 compared to the Avs at +15. Both teams employed Craig Anderson and both teams had a shot differential worse than -4.5. And the Panthers missed the playoffs, finishing 9th in the Conference with a solid 93 points. And that's about where I expect the Avalanche to end up.
As for what to expect from them, the Avalanche are very good on the penalty kill. Over the last seven games they've allowed two power play goals and scored two shorthanded for a pretty darn good goal differential of 0. The power play, on the other hand, has been very poor for the Avalanche over the last seven games scoring only one goal and generating very little in the way of scoring chances. Wojtek Wolski has been the best player on the squad so far this year and Oiler fans may remember his wonderful goal in Edmonton a few weeks back (they certainly don't remember any Oiler goals from that game). Milan Hejduk and Paul Stastny have both played much better recently than they did at the start of the year while Matt Duchene has started to struggle (remember Sam Gagner). The Avs shut-down pair of Hannan and Quincey have done a very good job so far this year while soft-minutes specialist John-Michael Liles has been so bad that I think the Oilers are the team that's getting screwed with Liles out of the Avs lineup with injury.
Expected Lineups:
Edmonton Oilers (7-8-1):
Penner - Gagner - O'Sullivan
Comrie - Brule - Nilsson
Reddox - Cogliano - Pisani
Moreau - Potulny - Stortini
Grebeshkov - Gilbert
Chorney - Visnovsky
Strudwick - Staios
Khabibulin
Colorado Avalanche (12-3-2)
Jones - Stastny - Hejduk
McLeod - Duchene - Svatos
Wolski - O'Reilly - Stewart
Koci - Dupuis - Hendricks
Hannan - Quincey
Foote - Cumiskey
Clark - Wilson
Anderson
Behind the Numbers:
- John-Michael Liles currently has a scoring chance percentage of 30.0%. The next worst Avalanche player is at 38.8%. John-Michael Liles has a cap hit of 4.2M for the next three years. I don't think there's a worse overpay on the Oilers. And that's saying something.
-
The Avalanche are currently ranked second overall in penalty killing efficiency at 86.1% behind only the New York Rangers (86.6%). I guess Tom Renney left that part of his genius behind.
- The Oilers and Avalanche are ranked 29th and 30th respectively in team faceoff percentage. Believe it or not the Oilers, at 47.2%, have a substantial lead. The Avs are at 44.4%.
- Here's the complete list of players suiting up for this game (both teams) with a Corsi of even or better: Dustin Penner, Lubomir Visnovsky, Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny. The Avs Corsi leader is Kyle Cumiskey at -0.970/15.
- Craig Anderson's PK save percentage so far this season is .927 on 124 shots. Last season, only five goalies who faced 100 PK shots posted a PK save percentage over .900 (the leader was Niklas Backstrom at .918). Craig Anderson was one of them (.910 on 200 shots). The year before that he put up .850 on 107 shots. That's quite the range.
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great stuff
Awesome, Scott, my God that’s good.
Unfortunately I belive the Oilers’ fan will continue to be humbled, at least until the flu and injuries have worked their way out.
Aye. This organization has a lot of past self-exaltation to atone for. I mean, how long was Glen Sather “the best GM in the league if only he had money.”
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 2:22 PM MST up reply actions
I concur. That was fantastic stuff.
# Here’s the complete list of players suiting up for this game (both teams) with a Corsi of even or better: Dustin Penner, Lubomir Visnovsky, Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny. The Avs Corsi leader is Kyle Cumiskey at -0.970/15.
Oh Reddox and Potulny. Cool. Heyyyyyyy wait a minute!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I guess Tom Renney left that part of his genius behind.
You mean the part where he leaves Hank Lunqvist in net?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
soft-minutes specialist John-Michael Liles has been so bad that I think the Oilers are the team that’s getting screwed with Liles out of the Avs lineup with injury.
hahahahahahha
Yeah, I want to see Liles out there for sure. I went to the Colorado at Edmonton game last week (a 3-0 Avs win) and I missed him that night too.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 12:59 PM MST up reply actions
Since you have followed the avs closely, you might be able to answer this:
Why is Wolski on 3rd line when he is producing at quite a high rate, or his production is the result of playing on the 3rd line?
He’s moved up and down the lineup. He’s played quite often with Stastny and Hejduk and he may yet end up there tonight. They sometimes move Wolski down the lineup to get more balance probably. It gives him a chance to take on some lessers and he usually doesn’t disappoint.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 2:24 PM MST up reply actions
If the line combos are correct, it’s interesting to see the relative positions of Ethan Moreau and Liam Reddox on the LW depth chart. Thecaptain is pretty locked in on Pat Quinn’s fourth line.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
The guy’s a crummy hockey player, but crummier than Liam Reddox?
by Benjamin Massey on Nov 8, 2009 2:05 PM MST up reply actions
These are the lines they practiced with yesterday, so I’d imagine that’s what they’ll go with today. I think Quinn actually likes the Moreau-Stortini pairing which is why they’re staying together. I remember earlier in the year him saying Cogliano and Gagner played better when they were put with 18 and 46 (at different times obviously).
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 2:27 PM MST up reply actions
Penner, O’Sullivan, and Gagner! The POG line! As in they’ll briefly get lots of attention but soon be completely extinct.
He's certainly due
Last 8 GP, 0-2-2, -8
Similar “production” as Nilsson for an extra $1 MM
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 2:17 PM MST up reply actions
Scoring Chances
As per Dennis’ chances data:
The Oilers have five players at even or better in chances:
Visnovsky, Souray, Penner, Gagner, Comrie
Peckham is surrendering 10.703 Chances Against / 15
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I am terrified
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:07 PM MST up reply actions
The Avs are the worst FO team in the league. Only O’Reilly is decent.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:11 PM MST up reply actions
Way to go Zorg. Crash the crease, beak off Koci, then talk nice to the ref.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
We’ll need as many of those as we can get. Hopefully Reddox is okay.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:18 PM MST up reply actions
Goal Scorer?
Did Debrusk just call Comrie a goal scorer?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Look at the rest of the roster. Beggars can’t be choosers.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:26 PM MST up reply actions
That was a really good kill – Penner and Pisani were more aggressive than I’ve seen the Oilers on the PK recently.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Are the changes stunted or do we have:
Grebeshkov – Staios
Chorney – Gilbert
Strudwick – Visnovsky
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think things got confused with Strudwick’s penalty.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:27 PM MST up reply actions
Somebody should teach Ethan Moreau how to block a shot before he retires. That was pathetic.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
Yeah, he’s not as bad as Strudwick and Staios in limited action, so, get better.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Gilbert
Gilbert has to be better on the man in front than he was there. He didn’t try to push or tie him up at all.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He rarely does. He almost always plays the puck on those scrambles. I agree that they need to teach him to take a man but so far it’s been a consistent part of his game. He plays the puck defending a lot of other plays as well.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:32 PM MST up reply actions
That spinaround pass by O’Sullivan was a real, uh, POS.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
It’s like little Sammie from last year
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Why why why is Lanterns still on the point?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Another one.
He has to lead the league in shots blocked.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He uses the spin-around blind pass/shot quite a lot. Remember that “amazing vision” on Penner’s goal in the CBJ game :)
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:36 PM MST up reply actions
The “blind squirrel” pass?
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:43 PM MST up reply actions
His vision is nice going forwards :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah. So much for my, “they have a good PK” in the preview. They really do though. Also, Anderson’s PK Sv% is taking a bit of a correction this evening.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:38 PM MST up reply actions
Who says hits aren't important?
Stortini ran the D and the guy dumped it over the glass —> PP -→ Goal
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:39 PM MST up reply actions
At least they didn’t, you know, put him on the ice for that whole middle part.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 6:40 PM MST up reply actions
Yeah, Potulny did a good job on the screen
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:41 PM MST up reply actions
Hehe.
Is the old man running the power play?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Previews
Aw, don’t feel bad, big guy – your previews are the best.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
strongly agree
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:39 PM MST up reply actions
Sum – you should coach the power play.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Lol!!! My buddy and I have a blueprint of our version of the powerplay!!!
We made is last season and spent 3 hours doing so….
Remember, the greatest used to operate from behind the net
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
“Last Chance” Nilsson looking good tonight
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
3/3
I hope Hemsky is taking notes
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
Give credit where due, POS made another “blind squirrel” pass to Penner, and Dustin dunked it. But then O’Sullivan lined up on the point in the last 10 seconds of the period and got burned for a 2-on-1 which could have been devastating. Great defensive plays by Vis and Penner saved his bacon that time. Penner was flying on the back check … gotta like that.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:49 PM MST up reply actions
That’s like putting the Staples Signal on.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m tracking scoring chances for this one since it’s an Avs game and I have it at 9-6 Avs after one period, 8-3 Avs at EV. Let’s hope they don’t give this one away.
3 PP scoring chances, 3 goals? Nice
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 8, 2009 6:57 PM MST up reply actions
Sustainable as long as the boys have the fight in em
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Interesting
Prior to this game:
47 GF
Penner 23 GFON
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
PK
Reddox and Pisani on the PK. Interesting.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
PK
Cogliano – Moreau
Penner – O’Sullivan
Reddox – Pisani
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Obvious one too, but that’s a makeup call for the other night.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Brule
Buddy looks completely lost out there.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, I wasn’t a bit surprised to see Quincey give him a shot as the play went up ice.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:16 PM MST up reply actions
This is a loss waiting to happen. The beatdown at evens is too much to overcome.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t know, the Avs won a few games like this. The irony would be grand.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:17 PM MST up reply actions
O'Sullivan
If O’Sullivan TRIED to shoot at the opponent’s legs, he couldn’t hit them this much.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Chorney
unless someone else is wearing 41, he’s back
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I thought I saw him shortly after I posted that comment (I saw a 4?) but then the puck came back down ice and it was 71 and 37 out there. Thanks for the heads up Derek.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:34 PM MST up reply actions
He’s taken two pretty decent hits since being back too.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve quite liked Liam Reddox on the PK so far. He seems to be a little more aggressive on the forecheck than most.
He’s not been as out of place as some other Oilers.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
What did they have 9-7?
What do you have?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, they had 9-7. At that point I had 18-9
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:37 PM MST up reply actions
Am I crazy for wanting Penner – Gagner – Potulny?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t think so. We’re getting slaughtered at EV regardless so it might be worth switching things up.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:58 PM MST up reply actions
Interesting Part II
Prior to this game:
37 ESGA
Penner: 6 GAON
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Not according to the numbers. Should be Strudwick
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I would think so too but Renney has a boner for 43. For 41 too considering the amount of icetime he feeds him.
Yeah, I doubt Renney pulls 43 but I’ll worry about having too many healthy D when it actually happens. I’m still not overly enthused about 41 so if 5 is ready and they take out one of 43 or 41 I’m a happy camper. Once 44 is good to go you pull the other one. Done deal.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:50 PM MST up reply actions
SC DIFF/15:
43: -2.168
41: -1.768
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
How much ice did 43 see partnered with 71? How much did 41 see?
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:56 PM MST up reply actions
I think 41 only had 1 game with Lubo.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well, there you go
All you need to win is desperation.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, you also need commitment.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:51 PM MST up reply actions
See? That’s why I can’t turn it around.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Your problem is that you are not desperate enough. Desperation is still very important but its not the only thing.
But its very important.
And you, pal, are not desperate enough. You’re just going through the motions, if I can be frank with you. I know desperation and I just don’t see it from you. Sorry.
Is this quoted from a “Dear John” letter you wrote to a girl in your youth?
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 7:59 PM MST up reply actions
I have a friend that actually smells of desperation – it’s not working out for him.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So, he just lacks the sexy? I mean he has the stick to it iveness. Ness.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Scoring chances in the second: 10-3 Avs, 7-1 EV, 3-1 PP.
Scoring chances overall: 20-9 Avs, 16-4 EV, 4-1 PP, 0-3 SH.
That’s pretty ugly.
Home/Away
Quinn LOVES the Home/Away breakdown in stats.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Please?
Pretty please for the second time?
Can I please get Penner – Gagner – Potulny?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Potulny tears it up and then they can’t keep him up because he hasn’t cleared waivers yet. Then he gets claimed on re-entry. Book it.
Maginot
Maginot line being maginot line right there.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
In fairness to him, he’s been pretty good tonight overall. But yeah, that play was awful.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 8:12 PM MST up reply actions
He has one of those awful plays every game. His brain just goes Sproink and we’re off!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
As long as you promise it’ll only be one tonight.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 8:23 PM MST up reply actions
You are much too hopeful my friend
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The only two players I feel comfortable with having the puck are Penner and Visnovsky.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Hey now, Potulny and Reddox came into the game with an even Corsi too.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 8:23 PM MST up reply actions
Reddox with the scramble. Nice.
And Quinn “All of them on the road!”
Like if matters you…Kevin.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The whole team was terrible for the first two periods. The third was BY FAR the best they’ve played tonight.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 8:32 PM MST up reply actions
Wow....
Penner – Gagner – Potulny close the game.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
third period chances : 8-3 Oilers; 4-3 Oilers EV; 4-0 Oilers PP; 0-0 SH
overall: 17-23; 8-19 EV; 8-0 PP; 1-4 SH
8-19 is better than I thought at EV
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Oilers actually played a very strong third. I was expecting it to be holding on for dear life but they were much more controlled in the third. Harder on the puck too.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 8, 2009 8:42 PM MST up reply actions
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