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Edmonton - Phoenix post-game: By the numbers

This is an experiment. Had a meeting that took me right out of the loop for the game, so I offered to do the post-game thread "blind", not watching or listening to the game or reading the GDT but simply referring to a few (I chose three) statistical reports. How much do they tell us about what really happens out there? Let me give some educated guesses strictly by the numbers. Those of you who did see the game, I invite your comments to set me straight.

First things first: Shawn Horcoff scored a goal at 19:59 of the second period? After what happened on Saturday, that is almost surreal. The hockey gods usually take a little more time than that to even up the scales of justice. Was it another clock-stopper?

The Game Summary shows the other 3 goals occurred in the game's first 12 minutes -- including 2 goals in 7 seconds! If I'm not mistaken that's a team record. (The Oil allowed 2 goals in 4 seconds once, both by Winnipeg's Deron Quint, but I don't remember them ever scoring 2 in the good end quite so rapidly.) Moreau, Souray, Hemsky, Horcoff -- four of the seven guys called into that leadership meeting early yesterday morning --  accounted for all the goal scoring and presumably a little leadership in the bargain. It would appear that Jeff Deslauriers did the rest.

Obviously the 3-0 lead would have affected how the game was played from then on, with the Oil content to sit back and Phoenix needing to drive the play, but timeonice.com's Shots Directed At Net data indicate an entirely one-sided game in the Coyotes' favour.  Either goalie's Corsi stats tell us Phoenix attempted even-strength 70 shots towards Edmonton's net, the Oil just 28 the other way. In 47 minutes of even strength play that's 34-17 in shots on goal, and another 36-11 in shots that missed or were blocked. That latter distribution suggests Phoenix were pretty indiscriminate and just firing from everywhere, while 20 blocked shots indicates the Oilers had some commitment to defensive play although I suspect there were some pretty chaotic moments.

Star-divide

Individually the Corsi numbers ranged from a team best of -5 (!!!) for Hemsky and Penner -- no surprises there -- to -22 apiece for Staios and Souray. The veteran duo each each logged 23+ minutes and I'm guessing a chunk of that was against what on Phoenix passes for the toughs. Souray hard-matched against Doan? Whatever, the Event Summary indicates Souray wasn't exactly a passive bystander out there: 1-1-2, +1, 4 shots, 9 attempted shots, a hit, 4 giveaways, a takeaway, 3 blocks, a boatload of ice time on both special teams ... don't like those giveaways or that Corsi but on balance it would appear Sheldon played a pretty strong game.

I'm also liking Ales Hemsky's stats for the night -- a goal, +1, a couple of shots, a hit, a blocked shot, 2 of the Oilers' 7 takeaways and none of their 20 (!) giveaways. I'm guessing Ales was "on". Another individual stat that jumps out is Dustin Penner's 9/11, 82% on the dot. He was having a dreadful time there a week or so ago. On this night the Oilers actually won the faceoff battle 30-24, a pleasant change of pace.

First star surely was Jeff Deslauriers, putting up the clean sheet despite all those shots and all that apparent zone pressure. That's adds up to a tough night's work (though it looks as if the PK unit did a fair job, holding PHX to 2 shots). A great bounceback game for the kid, who in his first 5 games had allowed 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 goals respectively. Obviously that trend had to change. But our own Ben Massey had it all figured out in the last PGT when he concluded:

Jeff, if you're reading this, you suck and I hate you and your face is ugly. Now go pitch a shutout.


Well done, Ben!

Statistical candidate for the 20th star is Patrick O'Sullivan, who posted a Corsi of +3/-24 = -21 in just 10:30 of EV TOI. That's -2 shot attempts per minute, for goodness sake. Liam Reddox, presumably a linemate, was scarcely better at +3/-21 = -18 in a shade under 10 minutes. Were these guys "keeping them to the outside" or simply getting Pwned?

So that's how I (didn't) see it. Please, help set me straight -- what did I miss?

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JDD

You’re missing the fat juicy rebounds JDD kept kicking out. Phoenix had a lot of chances, just no luck. On the other hand, the Oil got lucky with one goal (weird bounce) and another (buzzer-beater) and cleared at least one goal-line puck. JDD didn’t play anywhere nearly as badly as he did vs Chicago, but if Phoenix had had a few bounces go there way, it wouldn’t have been anywhere near a shutout for him. Also he didn’t look as bad handling the puck as he has so far this year, but I’d still tie a three foot rope between his belt and the crossbar. Marty Brodeur he isn’t.

You got O’Sullivan right though. He’s not just snakebit any more, he’s been swallowed and is being digested. And yeah, Souray-Staios were out there against Doan’s line a lot. Doan fed Staios his lunch behind the net in retaliation for some tough play Souray laid on him.

by snowcrashmike on Nov 24, 2009 5:08 AM MST reply actions  

However in JDD’s defense he made 2 or 3 great saves. Daylight robbery

by SumOil on Nov 24, 2009 8:19 AM MST up reply actions  

defense

Yep, he made a few great saves and a bunch that were pretty good. Halfway through the second period, the ice in the Phoenix end was still nice and shiny. Zone possession wasn’t even close for a good chunk of the game.

I wouldn’t say the Oilers won because of JDD – he did well enough to get a shutout, for sure – but they’ll lose more than they win if they play like that against better teams than Phoenix.

by snowcrashmike on Nov 24, 2009 5:37 PM MST up reply actions  

Sounds like the goal-line rescue made up for Souray’s fuck-up on Saturday on the 2-1 goal, luck-wise.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 24, 2009 10:01 AM MST up reply actions  

That’s right! Keep the faith low! The more miserable Deslauriers is, the better the goaltends. Anybody know where his dog is so one of us can run it over?

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 24, 2009 11:50 AM MST up reply actions  

Reads here?

If JDD reads here (and cares about what I have to say about his play) then the Oilers have more problems in goal than I said.

by snowcrashmike on Nov 24, 2009 5:35 PM MST up reply actions  

All Oilers should read the Copper & Blue. We are insightful and I’m not at all constantly, suicidally negative.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 24, 2009 5:46 PM MST up reply actions  

Buzzer!

They scored with 0.1 seconds left. Yes, freaky!

by Scarlett100 on Nov 24, 2009 7:14 AM MST reply actions  

Did the clock do the same hiccup it did on Saturday and freeze at 0.1, or did they fix that?

Still, it’s very bizarre for the same player to be involved in consecutive buzzer beaters. This isn’t basketball.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 24, 2009 12:25 PM MST up reply actions  

Apparently it was legit, because it counted. ;)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 24, 2009 10:14 PM MST up reply actions  

Watched the game late last night and I’d say your statistical analysis actually gives you a pretty good idea, though it helps when you’ve got some pretty fat numbers in front of you (I doubt you’ll have someone come in and defend O’Sullivan’s game). The things you miss are the little moments. My two favourites were Andrew Cogliano looking positively sullen after Ethan Moreau’s goal. Potulny and Moreau looked celebratory whereas Cogs had a slight look of either apathy or disappointment. It was pretty funny. The other was the play after Horcoff’s goal. Dustin Penner really went after that faceoff hard. Pad those stats man! Pad those stats!

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 24, 2009 8:17 AM MST reply actions  

The other was the play after Horcoff’s goal. Dustin Penner really went after that faceoff hard. Pad those stats man! Pad those stats!

That was outstanding. .1 seconds left and he actually gets in scrum stance to win the draw.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 24, 2009 8:43 AM MST up reply actions  

penner and hemsky both drove hard. That was a great play

by SumOil on Nov 24, 2009 9:06 AM MST up reply actions  

As much as one can obsevre through the tv...

It seems very clear cogs is frustrated with thecapitanethanmoreau and/or having to play with him.
And I don’t blame him at all.

by Kish on Nov 24, 2009 10:52 AM MST via mobile up reply actions  

Thanks. Of course I missed the small moments, which are a huge reason why I watch the game, so thanks for those vignettes. You’re right some of those fat numbers were hard to miss. Score 4-0 one way, Corsi 70-28 the other, obviously the Oilers got some breaks. That’s not uncommon for the Oilers in particular to be badly outshot in a blowout win: happened in Nashville, and last year in Columbus. The team is flat out terrible at closing out games no matter how big a lead they have (see: the Detroit game), they just don’t seem to have a system to just play out the string.

Unless they’re behind.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 24, 2009 10:59 AM MST up reply actions  

(The Oil allowed 2 goals in 4 seconds once, both by Winnipeg’s Deron Quint, but I don’t remember them ever scoring 2 in the good end quite so rapidly.)

What in the hell happened to Deron Quint?!

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 24, 2009 8:55 AM MST reply actions  

He had to play games against other teams.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 24, 2009 10:52 AM MST up reply actions  

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