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Ales Hemsky: Boat Anchor


There's been a lot of talk about how the Edmonton Oilers can't win with Ales Hemsky on their team.  Many internet commenters have suggested the team would be well-advised to trade him and move on, or that the Oilers are better off without him, or things of that nature.

Others have suggested that he's a flawed player with some good points but not enough to justify the esteem some hold him in.

While he's probably playing through injury right now, I'm not sure any of them appreciate how truly awful Hemsky's been this season.  Let's run the numbers.

Star-divide

Goals: 6 through 20 games.

That puts Hemsky on pace for 25 goals, a career high for the forward.  It also ties him for 70th in the NHL; a first-line pace, despite the fact that Hemsky's more playmaker than scorer.

Assists: 15 through 20 games.

Hemsky's current pace has him on track for 61 assists over an 82-game schedule, again a career-high.  It also ties him for 12th in the entire NHL, along with noted plugs Henrik Zetterberg, Mikko Koivu, Vincent Lecavalier and Daniel Alfredsson, although both Koivu and Zetterberg have played more games than Hemsky.

Points: 21 through 20 games.

Those 21 points represent an 86-point campaign for Hemsky, another career-high (Hemsky's always come up just short of the point per game mark in years prior).  They tie him for 26th in the NHL - and while that may not sound impressive, it marks him as a franchise-calibre offensive producer this season, given that the league has 30 teams.  Oddly enough, one more point would tie him with Calgary Flames captain Jarome Iginla, Tampa Bay's breakout forward Steven Stamkos, and Sidney Crosby (Crosby's played three more games than Hemsky).

Still, we can surely acknowledge that scoring isn't all that matters, and that Hemsky gets a ton of ice-time, and there's also that theory that the power play is better without him, so let's look at some more numbers.

Plus/Minus: +6

On a team that as a whole is minus-5 at even strength, somehow Hemsky is plus-6.  He's one of only two forwards on the team (Dustin Penner is the other) with a plus/minus better than plus-1.

Power Play Scoring: 3 goals, 5 assists

With eight power play points, Hemsky is second only to one other Oilers' forward (Dustin Penner, with nine).  His three goals are also second to only one other Oilers' forward, again Penner, who has four.  Meanwhile, those eight points tie him for 29th among NHL forwards.  One more point would tie him for 14th in the league. 

Even-strength PTS/60: 2.96

Last year, only seven forwards in the entire league finished with a better even-strength scoring rate than Ales Hemsky's current 2.96.  Players with lower totals included Alexander Ovechkin (2.86), Pavel Datsyuk (2.91), Phil Kessel (2.82) and a host of others.  Hemsky makes the most of his ice-time.

Still, maybe Pat Quinn is being sneaky and putting Hemsky in a position to succeed.  Let's look at some contextual statistics, just to see if that's true.

Offensive-Zone Faceoff Perecentage: 44.5%

To put that number into perspective, consider this: 322 forwards have played more than five games and more than 10 minutes per game at even-strength.  245 of them - more than 76% - start more often in the offensive zone than Ales Hemsky.  Given that Hemsky is, first and foremost an offensive talent, does it seem like he really ought to be in the bottom quarter of the league (and bottom third of the Oilers) in this category?  Of course it doesn't.

Quality of Competition: 0.032 (3rd among Oilers forwards)

Naturally, opposition coaches match their best players against Hemsky.  This happened last year, and it happened the year before last, and it's likely to continue.

Bottom Line

Hemsky's having a very good season.  Even a career-best season.  When the team's losing, and has lost for a long time, people look for someone to blame, and Hemsky's been a constant for the Oilers.  Add to that the fact that he can look uninspired when he's not playing well, and he becomes an easy target.  There's just one minor issue to picking out Hemsky as the problem with this team:

Ales Hemsky isn't the problem.

0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments |

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Something similar happened in Calgary with both Tanguay and Huselius. Because they weren’t prototypical hockey players (that is, they didn’t hit a lot or drop the gloves, etc.) they became targets for being “too soft” or “not competitive enough” or some such thing.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 7:29 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Something similar happened in Calgary with both Tanguay and Huselius.

I’d sacrifice a goat to have Tanguay and Huselius in Edmonton.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 23, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They’re both still sneered at by sizable contingent of the Flames fanship.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 23, 2009 9:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That’s mindblowing. Do these same people hold Jokinen in even more contempt?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 23, 2009 9:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

they probably adore jokinen – after all, he has that “big body presence”

by no ah on Nov 23, 2009 9:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Except for one guy at Pro Hockey Life who called him, “my favourite convicted accused rapist.”

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 23, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry, that was in reference to Huselius.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Nov 23, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

David Frost is gonna be pissed.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 23, 2009 9:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Can I get a “WORK HARDER ALES”?

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 23, 2009 7:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Just to be clear...

I’m not saying that he’s the hardest working guy in practice. He may even have an attitude problem. I don’t know.

I do know that he’s an exceptional hockey player.

A posse ad esse.

The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!

Twitter: @JonathanWillis

by Jonathan Willis on Nov 23, 2009 7:45 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I know it’s hard to put up those kind of numbers if you’re dogging it.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 23, 2009 8:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He is one of those players who quietly put up points. And yes this season he has been pretty good again. He isnt one of those franchise players but he is a good 1st liner.

Ales Hemsky isn’t the problem.

Yes sir, He is part of the solution and as you mentioned over at oilersnation, The problem for this team is keeping pucks out our net. So picking out hemsky is not the thing to do.

I remember one of the trades being mentioned in the off-season was Hemsky for Dustin Brown. People dont realise that he is the only skilled player(on our team) who is consistent enough to carry the offense and by subtracting him and not adding a player of similar ilk just creates new holes.

by SumOil on Nov 23, 2009 8:01 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Trade him. And Horcoff.

Kitten kicking visor wearing Euros, oh yeah Horcoff is too, Horcoff? Horcov, more like.

The bums. Trade them both for that Mueller guy. We need more kids!

by Pat Mc on Nov 23, 2009 11:11 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I would actually love to have that Mueller kid. Maybe not “Horcoff and Hemsky” love, but…

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 23, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Fine piece, JW. Line up all those stats next to each other and it makes a pretty compelling case. I think QualComp needs to be put in context with QualTeam, where Hemsky also ranks top 3 on the club. That said if you are going best on best and outscoring, there is not much to complain about, is there?

Quibbles: It’s all well and good to compare Hemsky’s ESP/60 over 20 games with last year’s leaders over 80, but earlier today when I pointed out at Lowetide’s site that all three of Brule, Penner, and Hemsky were around the 3 ESP/60 mark, I had no less an authority than Vic Ferrari inform me that:

At this time of year EV points/60 is about 75% luck and 25% ability.

Now I’d be the first one to agree that Hemsky is a far better bet than Brule to come somewhere close to sustaining that pace, but the point remains that comparing rates from 20 GP to those of 80 is a tad dodgy. Same goes for Penner too obviously.

Also, while you’re right that Hemsky’s PP stats are OK, they’re not overwhelming. Among the 8 Oiler forwards with both 5+ GP and 1:00+ PPTOI/G, Hemsky ranks 5th in PPP/60, 6th in PPGF ON/60, and 5th in PP+/60.

The Oilers powerplay sits just outside the top 10 in the league in percentage terms, a definite improvement over past years. I feel strongly that they have the personnel — with Hemsky a key man in the mix — to be solidly within the top 10, so am at times a little impatient with “good” production when we need to be “great” at something. Still, progress is clearly being made.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 24, 2009 1:44 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I saw Vic’s comment there, and I agree that sustain may be an issue. But for both Brule and Hemsky I don’t think we can complain about what they’ve given so far, though it’s fair to question if it will continue

A posse ad esse.

The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!

Twitter: @JonathanWillis

by Jonathan Willis on Nov 24, 2009 8:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

In terms of point production that’s quite true but, at least in the case of Brule, there are some pretty good reasons to complain about his overall play and believe that his scoring touch won’t continue. His Corsi is poor (though he’s not exactly unique there) and his scoring chances equally so. His personal shooting percentage (18.8%) and EV on-ice shooting percentage (12.4%) are both higher than I’d expect and he doesn’t have a track record that suggests he’s capable of scoring near 3.00 pts/60 over a full season. Hemsky’s track record suggests that there should be some sustain. I will be very surprised if Brule ends up with a pts/60 number over 2.50 this season and even more surprised if he ends up a plus player at EV.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 24, 2009 9:13 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that; I was defending Brule yeterday until I saw his scoring chance numbers (yikes!) – although they seem to have dropped off a cliff lately.

Mostly though, when I wrote this I wasn’t trying to predict future performance, just look at performance so far this season. It’s been hard to complain about Brule, who by even being a somewhat useful NHL’er is exceeding some expectations.

A posse ad esse.

The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!

Twitter: @JonathanWillis

by Jonathan Willis on Nov 24, 2009 9:24 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we’re comparing him to expectations then he’s certainly exceeded mine! The problem is that my expectations were “not an NHL player and will get slaughtered.” Although he’s exceeded those, that’s not a very high bar for a guy playing in the NHL.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 24, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Brule’s chances numbers have been falling off of a cliff since he was decoupled from Penner.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 25, 2009 9:03 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 57 35 20 2 72
Colorado 58 33 19 6 72
Calgary 59 29 21 9 67
Minnesota 58 29 25 4 62
Edmonton 58 18 34 6 42

(updated 2.9.2010 at 6:00 AM PST)

18 - 34 - 6

Lost 3

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:37)

Souray (22:46)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:59)

Grebeshkov (17:23)

Points:

Penner (44)

Visnovsky (28)

Goals:

Penner (22)

Visnovsky (9)

Assists:

Penner (22)

Visnovsky (20)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.190)

Visnovsky(.137)

Shots:

Penner (153)

Souray(111)

Corsi/15:

Penner(1.26)

Visnovsky (.945)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.347)

Visnovsky (4.751)

SCA/15:

Stone (3.364)

Gilbert (4.284)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.688)

Visnovsky (.405)


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