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Optimistic Overview of Oilers First Quarter

[Editor's note:  We here at The Copper & Blue have been a grumpy bunch lately.  Most of the gloss of a shiny new season has worn off and, if you haven't noticed, we've become a bit pessimistic around here.  We asked Sum - easily the most optimistic Oiler fan that we know - to put together a list of reasons detailing why Oiler fans can be optimistic as well.  He gladly obliged and gave us the list below.  If any of you can muster reasons for optimism, feel free to use the FanPost feature, and we're more than happy to feature it on the front page. Thanks Sum, your efforts are much appreciated.]

A record of 9-10-3 at the quarter mark is not what I had in mind when I predicted the Oilers to win the division. After these 22 games, I now realize why I took so much flak for that particular one. These last majority of games were quite depressing to watch. Sometimes the team just wasn't playing with any purpose. Sometimes we just found new ways to lose. There were injuries, flu bug, slumping players etc. The season is still young and with the last game against Colorado, this team is showing signs of life and I believe resurgence is just around the corner. 

Lets look at the positives:

Star-divide

Dustin Penner: He has been an absolute treat to watch. He is doing everything for the Oil. He is scoring goals, creating goals, setting up goals, taking face-offs, killing penalties. He is the heart of the team and the team is rallying around his all-round play. Even during those loses, DP was a positive factor in all the games save for the Boston one( Thanks to Chara). During these 22 games, he has team leading 23 points and I am sure David Staples will soon put up his 'real points'.  No forward has played more minutes than Penner and no has been even half as dominant.

Ales Hemsky: After a slow start to the season (I am sure Derek attributes this to not playing with Penner), Hemsky has been on fire (which Derek attributes to him playing with Penner ;) ). He has 15 points in his last 13 games. He is an extremely creative playmaker, who is using all the space provided by Penner to his and the team's advantage. This finally seems to be the season he breaks out big time and has a point per game season.

Gilbert Brule: I am still learning the micro-stats facet of the game, but by just watching the game, I think Brule has been impressive. He is tied for 2nd on the team for Goals scored and is 5th in forwards for points. He is playing a steady, simple and gritty game and is being rewarded with points. He is specially good when on a line with Reddox. He was certainly rushed by the CBJs and might have been a much better player if he had gone through a more patient channel of development. Of course he is young and prone to making mistakes, but  I see no reason why he shouldn't get better as the season progresses. 

The return of Sheldon Souray: Is it a coincidence that Oilers played their worst games when Souray was out? Gilbert  and Grebeshkov were being asked to play the top minutes and failed miserably. Souray is the anchor of our defense, leader of his troops from the defensive line. Since his return, he has taken over his duties (from Patrick O Sullivan) of blasting pucks from the point on the powerplay and presto-gingo our PP is on fire. He also adds the gritty play on the defense and is the artist of breaking cycles. 

Lubomir Visnovsky: Not unlike Hemsky, Visnovsky too had a slow start to this season. He had an off-season surgery and did not look like he was ready. However he got exponentially better as the games went on. Right now it is amazing how he is controlling the play from the back end. Alan Mitchel has this to write about Lubomir and I dont think I can use better words to describe his play:

 

He's more than a puck mover, outlet passer, offensive defender. Lubomir Visnovsky is almost a puppeteer with the puck and his linemates, with each sweeping move or pass obvious only upon completion. Being a Lubo fan is like a wonderful ride at the carnival, scary and breathless but also secure and confident.

 

Lubo leads the team in points and goals from a defenseman. I think he is one of the premier puck moving defensemen in the league.

Ladislav Smid: Before the start of the season, I was sad for Smid. I thought here was a young promising defenseman whose development was ruined due to us rushing him too early. I thought Ladi was a lost cause. However, I dont see how anyone can not be impressed by his game this season. He has made me a believer for sure. He is big, smart, smooth skating defenseman who plays a gritty, physical and an in your face game. If Penner is the most improved forward, Smid takes that mantle for the most improved D-man. If he continues this way, he will be a force on our blue line for years to come. 

The powerplay:  The PP has been improving game after game. No I don't mean the number of goals, but the system and execution. It looks like there is a plan and players are sticking to it. Rather than being static at their designated spots, players are skating and trying to make room and get open rather than hoping to get open. Ofcourse our play down low can be better, but this powerplay is operating upwards of 20% and every PP opportunity brings a smile on my face. 

Injury to Ethan Moreau: I dont think there was an injury which has been more celebrated as the one to our captain. This is what Scott had said to say about John Liles of the Avs (in his scouting report):

John-Michael Liles has been so bad that I think the Oilers are the team that's getting screwed with Liles out of the Avs lineup with injury.

I think same can be said about our captain. It is sad but true. With coming back of Stone, I am extremely optimistic that our 4th line will be better too. 

Of course there are still holes on our roster. We still need a center like Reasoner. There are still many players who are injured. But I am sure that better days are ahead. Oilers have been a force at home and I see no reason why we shouldn't improve our road record. GO OILERS.

Poll
What has been the most impressive factor for the Oilers?
Oiler's top line
22 votes
Ladi Smid- Visnovsky pairing
40 votes
Consistent Goaltending
11 votes
Powerplay
7 votes

80 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 13 comments |

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(I am sure Derek attributes this to not playing with Penner)

Well, of course.

The powerplay: The PP has been improving game after game. No I don’t mean the number of goals, but the system and execution. It looks like there is a plan and players are sticking to it. Rather than being static at their designated spots, players are skating and trying to make room and get open rather than hoping to get open. Ofcourse our play down low can be better, but this powerplay is operating upwards of 20% and every PP opportunity brings a smile on my face.

That’s something that I think is sliding under the radar right now – but you’re right. Even though it’s only 20 games in, the power play has been good.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 20, 2009 4:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Eric Smith( a blogger for CBJ) had an interesting comment a year ago: that if both special team’s percentages add upto 100+ then the team is doing good(in terms of special teams). I think we just are above 100%.

by SumOil on Nov 20, 2009 6:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Stats! Whee!

That makes sense, since overall the average sum of PP% and PK% for the league will always be 100% (by definition).

So if as a team you’re over 100%, you’re above average. Simple as that. I might as well make a ranking according to “special teams percentage”. ‘cause that’s how I have fun. Indeed.

1. San Jose Sharks 110.4
2. Philadelphia Flyers 109.4
3. Atlanta Thrashers 108.9
4. Chicago Blackhawks 108.4
5. New York Rangers 106.8
6. Columbus Blue Jackets 104.1
7. Washington Capitals 103.8
8. New Jersey Devils 102.8
9. Phoenix Coyotes 101.8
10. Vancouver Canucks 101.7
11. New York Islanders 101.3
12. Colorado Avalanche 101.2
13. Buffalo Sabres 100.6
14. Edmonton Oilers 100.5
15. Minnesota Wild 99.2
16. Ottawa Senators 98.9
17. Boston Bruins 98.7
18. Detroit Red Wings 97.8
19. St. Louis Blues 97.6
20. Los Angeles Kings 97.4
21. Toronto Maple Leafs 97.3
22. Calgary Flames 97.1
23. Dallas Stars 96.4
24. Montreal Canadiens 96.3
25. Pittsburgh Penguins 95.3
26. Anaheim Ducks 95.2
27. Nashville Predators 95.0
28. Carolina Hurricanes 94.3
29. Tampa Bay Lightning 92.8
30. Florida Panthers 88.4

So yeah, our special teams are pretty much exactly average. Which is better than our position in the standings, so I guess that’s pretty decen? (since we’re being positive ‘n’ all).

What else can you see up there? The Sharks are pretty good. No surprise there. The Panthers are mindnumbingly terrible. Pittsburgh’s PP% of 13.3 (29th) is just embarassing.

by Simon M on Nov 21, 2009 12:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Florida

Florida’s special teams are destroying them. At even strength, no one is really getting smoked and the team as a whole looks decent — 49 GF, 54 GA.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 21, 2009 7:35 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The one thing the percentages don’t take into account are short-handed goals, which I think are important aspects of both special teams. Something like goal differential/60 on the PP – goal differential/60 on the PK would do a good better job than straight percentages and would also help distinguish between teams that have a good penalty differential and those that are efficient when on special teams. Zero would be average in this system.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 21, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How about the fact that our two top prospects, Eberle and MPS are off to great starts this season and they both may make the team next year

by Loyal2theOil on Nov 20, 2009 6:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Definitely…..but that is fro next year’s point of view. talking about prospects…dubnyk has a .926 sv% in the farm as of today

by SumOil on Nov 20, 2009 6:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If both Eberle and MPS are on the team next year, the Oilers are in deep, deep trouble.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 20, 2009 6:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Especially considering they also need to make room for Hartikainen on the roster.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 20, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I dont see MPS making the team next season, but Eberle should definitely battle for it

by SumOil on Nov 20, 2009 8:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He shouldn’t, but on this team, he will.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 20, 2009 8:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice post, SumOil

I share at least some of your optimism.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 20, 2009 9:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 57 35 20 2 72
Colorado 58 33 19 6 72
Calgary 59 29 21 9 67
Minnesota 58 29 25 4 62
Edmonton 58 18 34 6 42

(updated 2.9.2010 at 6:00 AM PST)

18 - 34 - 6

Lost 3

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:37)

Souray (22:46)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:59)

Grebeshkov (17:23)

Points:

Penner (44)

Visnovsky (28)

Goals:

Penner (22)

Visnovsky (9)

Assists:

Penner (22)

Visnovsky (20)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.190)

Visnovsky(.137)

Shots:

Penner (153)

Souray(111)

Corsi/15:

Penner(1.26)

Visnovsky (.945)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.347)

Visnovsky (4.751)

SCA/15:

Stone (3.364)

Gilbert (4.284)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.688)

Visnovsky (.405)


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