Edmonton - Ottawa post-game: WTF?
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 10, 2009 8:59 PM PST
in Game-Day Threads
8 comments
Game stars from an alternate universe:
1) Steve Staios: A brilliiant game from the oldest Oiler, who has been written off around the Oilogosphere as a waste of time and money. Went +3 in a 3-3 tie in which only 2 teammates (Grebeshkov, Stortini) mustered as much as +1. Was the only player on either team to score multiple points (2 assists). Blocked a team-high 5 shots in his team-high 30 shifts, during which time Oilers outshot Ottawa 17-3 (!). That's right, during the 22:44 he was out there Staios made more stops than Deslauriers did! Steady Steve lived up to his moniker on this night, battling like a demon in the corners and slot. A great game from an unlikely source.
2) Ethan Moreau: Oilers captain takes a lot of grief around the 'sphere, but tonight he played a strong game. Led the team with 5 shots (tied with Reddox) and 3 hits (also tied with Reddox! and Pisani), and scored a first-period goal by jumping on a loose puck and driving the net. His line with Cogliano and Stortini had a solid night, generating 9 shots among the three of them (about 8 more than usual) and playing solid two-way hockey. Moreau was a little unfortunate on Ottawa's third goal when he attempted to cover for Visnovsky for which he was pilloried in some corners, but he provided a lot of solid play throughout the game which mostly went uncredited. Well, that just changed.
3) Kevin Lowe: For having the balls to pursue Dustin Penner as a RFA. K-Lowe has taken quite a few slings and arrows around the 'sphere for that and other decisions over his years at the helm ... maybe when things do work out he deserves a little credit.
...
20) Lubomir Visnovsky: Darling of the Oilogosphere had a dreadful night, making numerous bad plays two of which led directly to goals against. It showed up in the numbers too, as Lubo had the worst goal differential (-2), shot differential (-6), Fenwick # (-7) and Corsi # (also -7) of any skater on either team.
...
A little tongue-in-cheek up there, but not a lot. To call this an unusual game would be a huge understatement, with many players going against the form chart. Oilers outshot their opposition for the first time since Game 1, and by a convincing margin (34-25). Andrew Cogliano had a strong night in the faceoff circle (8/13, 62%), Liam Reddox was a force in all three zones, Ryan Potulny took a huge defensive zone faceoff in the dying seconds, and Ryan O'Marra played an NHL game.
Oh, and Dustin Penner was close to unstoppable. That much at least was business as usual in 2009-10.
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I am confused by the idea of giving stars of the game to the three best players. What sort of heresy is this?
by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2009 10:29 PM PST reply actions
I left #18 and #19 for you, Ben. Unfortunately, #20 was a major contributor to a bizarro game story so I had to say something mildly negative, much as that cuts across the grain with me.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 10, 2009 10:49 PM PST up reply actions
Hey, if I couldn’t pick Visnovsky as twentieth star, I clearly wasn’t even watching the game.
And I wasn’t! I listened to about forty-five minutes of it on 630 CHED! Thank you, pay-per-view (and also my employer for making me earn my paycheque instead of sitting in my office getting overtime to watch an Oiler game).
by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2009 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
This is the alternate universe where ties still exist, right?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Well, it’s already the alternate universe in which the Springfield Falcons are competitive with the Ottawa Senators.
by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2009 11:35 PM PST up reply actions
We clearly were better and faster. We outshot them and outchanced them. But call it karma. Now i know how it feels to be a fan of a team that loses to oilers
I just love the irony that the team’s 0-1-1 when outshooting and 8-7-1 when outshot. That’ll change eventually, I’m sure, but it’s kind of funny right now, in a sad sort of way.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Not necessarily
Oilers have a long record of having a better record in games where they are outshot. What is unusual ’09-10 is the split where they have outshot their opponent in just 2 of 18 games.
Nice to see for a change. The Oilers fully earned their one point and were unlucky not to get a second.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 11, 2009 8:39 AM PST up reply actions
Hopefully they get a chance to change that 0-1-1 this season. To be honest, a better stat might be “outshooting through the first two periods” or “outshooting when the score is tied” since one and especially two-goal leads in the third period tend to cause the team in the lead to sit back and distort the outshooting numbers. I don’t know if it would change anything for this year’s Oilers but in general it would probably be a better reflection of which team is controlling the play when both have an equal amount to gain and lose by scoring a goal.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 11, 2009 9:00 AM PST up reply actions
I've been making that point for awhile
Game state (primarily score) drives shots. The math guys have been making progress on it, but we’ve still got a ways to go.
Last night it was a leitimate outshooting effort, since Oilers were ahead or tied for all but a couple of minutes in thr third.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 11, 2009 10:56 AM PST up reply actions
Well, last year Vic’s TOI site could just run stuff for “game tied” so that was great :) I don’t think it’s working right now though.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 11, 2009 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Watched the tail end of the game last night and I must say that this was one of their best games of the year. With Hemsky, Horcoff and Souray out and Visnovsky having an uncharacteristically poor game everybody else stepped up and played well enough that they had a very good chance to win. Miles better than the first two periods in Colorado. A very pleasant surprise indeed.
Nice article. And your point about KLo is on the button – the man has been tarred and feathered the last 18 months, but he nailed the Penner deal.
The Penner deal was a risk. For many general managers it would have been an acceptable risk but given the state of the Oilers at that time it was a foolish risk to take. The Oilers are very lucky they didn’t end up passing Anaheim a lottery pick that season. But if the Oilers had been in the spot of the Dallas Stars for example, it would have been a great move from the outset since the compensation package wouldn’t have been as potentially disastrous, Penner could help an already good team improve right away and it would’ve weakened a major rival. So long as the Stars believed that Penner was to become a first line forward the money actually isn’t bad at all.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 11, 2009 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
I hate that it costs strong teams less to sign RFAs than it does weak teams. They both have to give up draft picks in the same round, but there’s a huge difference between a lottery pick and one in the 25-30 range. A truly bad team cannot afford to go this route to improve themselves.
However the 2007-08 Oilers were not all that bad. Lowe’s “foolish risk” seems to have been rooted in his belief that Penner was a potential difference-maker and that the Oilers (with Penner) would be good enough to avoid the bottom of the league in 2007-08. Despite major injuries to key players those ‘07-08 Oilers were good enough to avoid the depths; and after a couple of years of mixed results, the maturing Penner is starting to look like a force in this league. So foolish or not, it’s starting to look like a risk that is paying dividends. I say give the man a little credit for the Penner move; if you want to pummel him, there are plenty of other skeletons in his closet.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 11, 2009 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah, no. I won’t be giving him any credit for it given his context. Those 07-08 Oilers were lucky enough to avoid the depths, not good enough. Their goalie led the league in PK save percentage and never lost shoot-outs. They had ten regulars shoot 10% or better (some much better). And they missed the playoffs. When the club was actually healthy at the beginning of the year, they were awful. And how many guys with less than 60 NHL games before the season did they play that year? Glencross, Cogliano, Gilbert, Brodziak, Gagner, Stortini, Grebeshkov, Nilsson, Pouliot,. That’s a lot. Winning teams don’t generally do such things. It was a stupid, stupid risk that worked out and is paying dividends now. But that does not change the fact that it was a stupid, stupid risk.
by Scott Reynolds on Nov 11, 2009 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
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