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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

Tracking Teemu Hartikainen

The Copper & Blue's favorite prospect is eleven games into his sophomore season with KalPa of the SM-Liiga.  After a rookie season that not only far surpassed any reasonable expectation of him based on draft position, he blew the doors off of the SM-Liiga and the KalPa record books.  We previously looked at what can be expected of the youngster here, and this list of 19 year olds in the SM-Liiga can be used as a comparable list for this NHL-bound left wing.

Fnl19yo_medium

 

Star-divide

Through his first 11 games, Teemu Hartikainen's boxscores look promising:  1G 5A - 6P. Comparing him to the chart, .545 points per game sits at the same level as Mikko Koivu.

I went through the translated box scores and his points break out thusly:

EV:  0G 2A - 2P

PP:  1G 3A - 4P

The goal scoring isn't there yet, but blame it on the bounces.  Hartikainen has 25 shots through 11 games and 1 goal, a miserable 4% shooting percentage.  Last year, in his record-setting season, he shot 12.9%, which was on the high end of what should be expected, but as we discussed, he plays in and around the paint, so he should be able to muster double digits.  But it's early and luck rules early on.  His shot rates are slightly down from last year though -- 2.568 shots / 20 mins as compared to 3.96 shots / 20 mins -- and  KalPa has a new fellow named Andersson who shoots as much as Ovechkin, so perhaps there aren't enough pucks to go around.

Hartikainen is averaging 17:42 of total ice time per game, 5th among KalPa forwards and up from 13:03 last year, so his workload is increasing.  From the box scores, we can see he's playing with the second line exclusively, and playing on the first power play unit.

View his game log here, at the SM-Liiga site.

His first split is encouraging.  He's still shooting and he's playing more significant minutes.  When his shooting percentage rebounds, he'll settle in the middle of above comparables  list as he heads to the AHL.

 

EDIT:  Originally, the stat comparison was made using the wrong column,  It has since been corrected.

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Aren’t you comparing Hartikainen’s PPG .545 vs everyone else’s GPG? I don’t mean to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks much less favourable, because then he comes in much much less promising. Although 11 games is a small sample, so I would be more inclined to be swayed by his great performance last year.

Jokinen for example was at 1.300 PPG vs .545 (and look at how crappy Joker is right now)
Hartikainen is scoring at .090 GPG right now….a little less than Jani Rita.

by LawrenceS on Oct 9, 2009 1:09 PM MDT reply actions  

The other two concerns are at 19 this year I assume (you would hope for steady improvement) as the learning and strength should come quickly, which it seams is not the case thus far. His goal totals look unlikely to even be half of last years.

The other thing is he’s acquiring over 50% of his scoring on the PP, which is unfavourable to measuring offensive skills due to the scenario’s he is in. 5on5 is a better barometer in which he has only 2 points in 11 games. On pace for 6 even strength pts in 30games.

by LawrenceS on Oct 9, 2009 1:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

Possibly, but I’m going to attribute that to his shooting percentage. Last year he had a strong season at evens.

He scored 17 goals, 10 at even strength, 7 on the power play.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Oct 9, 2009 3:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

Bogus Comparison

Yah, compare his points per game to everyone else’s goals per game and he looks pretty good. How does this stuff get past the editor? I guess there is no editor.

by Omilian on Oct 9, 2009 2:00 PM MDT reply actions  

We’re just bloggers. We live in our mothers’ basements and watch the games on 14" black-and-white TVs in between raids on World of Warcraft and playing with our graphing calculators, so if we just confuse a column now and again I think we’re doing okay!

by Benjamin Massey on Oct 9, 2009 2:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’ve got mad TI-83+ skillz.

A posse ad esse.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and OilersNation.

by Jonathan Willis on Oct 9, 2009 3:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah!

Next thing you’ll be putting a buncha numbers “proving” Horcoff is one of the best Centres in the league.

Facts Shmacts

by Mr DeBakey on Oct 9, 2009 3:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

You see Mr DeBakey, if we take last season and compare Horcoff’s points per game with Ovechkin’s goals per game you’ll see that Horcoff is actually the better offen… oh… he still loses. Dang.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 9, 2009 3:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Uhhh... what?

hahahaha… nice math. His points per game ranks 9th and his goals per game ranks 14th.

by Crooked on Oct 9, 2009 3:26 PM MDT reply actions  

Sorry all. Got my numbers crossed.

Not sure what’s up with the font. I’ll try and get it corrected.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Oct 9, 2009 3:29 PM MDT reply actions  

Remember

This is also Teemu’s military service year, a thing to keep in mind. I believe the diesel engine is just starting to warm up. ;)

by Waker on Oct 25, 2009 4:44 PM MDT reply actions  

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