Offseason armchair GM - If doritogrande were GM this summer
I'm in this contest to win. And what's better than girls in short tops holding an Oilers banner to give me an edge?
I'm not the most edumacated hockey fan in the world, but I think I know a little bit about player types, cap management and drafting that I could have done a better job than Steve Tambellini this off-season.
More after the jump...
Any good GM starts his offseason work immediately after their team's postseason chances are eliminated. This year, Tambellini had a bit of a head-start on the rest of the field. The offseason has two major windows of opportunity, the entry draft, and the beginning of free-agency period. We'll discuss those in detail.
*Disclaimer*: In my actions as armchair GM, I assume no liability in regard to injuries sustained during the course of the offseason. This fact will become readily apparent later.
Entry Draft:
Going into the entry draft, we hold the 10th overall pick in the first round, followed by picks 40, 71, 82, 101, 133, 163 and 193.
Steve Tambellini did very well with his first pick, I'll say that up front. Given the way the NHL draft panned out, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson is my first overall pick as well. He's a solid pick and definitely worth the 10th overall selection. I had him ranked as high as 5 on my pre-draft scouting board.
Where I differ from Tambellini is with teh pick at #40. Given that another of my top-15 picks has slipped considerably, I make this trade:
Edmonton trades: 40th overall pick and the rights to F Linus Omark to New Jersey Devils for 20th overall pick.
In all seriousness, this is a trade that works well for both teams. The Oilers have a massive stockpile of undersized scorers and can stomach the loss of one more for an amateur player I deem to be better. New Jersey slides a lot, but they're getting a very good prospect in Linus Omark. This is a trait of New Jersey, where they acquire additional assets if they're not completely satisfied with their draft slot. I think they make this deal because of the upside of Omark and another pick at 40.
With the 20th overall selection, Edmonton selects F Jordan Schroeder. Yes, he's another midget, but this one I've seen. And he's going to be an NHL player. Well worth the trade of Omark to my eyes.
With their 71st overall selection, Edmonton selects G Brian Lee. Given his standout performance at the U18s and his play in the USHL this year, he's the goaltender I covet in this year's draft.
With their 82nd pick Edmonton selects F Tomas Vincour. He's a known commodity to the Edmonton brass, a big body, and put up points. I think it's a decent selection here.
With their 101st selection Edmonton selects F Marcus Foligno. Big body who's point totals increased over two-fold from last year. PIMs also skyrocketed, almost tripling.
With pick 133, Edmonton selects D Thomas Larkin. 6'5" body with respectable point totals playing for an American High School. Kid has the body to play at the next level.
With the 163rd pick, Edmonton selects G Jaroslav Janus. Saw this kid perform at the U20s and he was absolute lights out, easily Slovakia's MVP. He's an older player (1989 birthday), but we've got some success picking overagers.
With the 193rd pick, Edmonton selects F Burke Gallimore. I've always liked what the kid brings, and he's got chemistry with another of our prospects (Milan Kytnar).
So there's the draft, 5 forwards, 1 defender, 2 goalies. Two sure-fire first rounders that will make an impact on the NHL roster within two years, some big bodies to shore up the forward prospect ranks, a mammoth defender and two goalies to battle it out for a contract.
Free Agency:
In Free Agency, I'm including trades here.
Edmonton fires:
Head coach: Craig MacTavish.
He's been here for a long time, and I believe the players have tuned him out. Simple as that. He's been a great coach, and I thank him for all the years of loyal service he's given to this proud franchise, but it's time for a new direction.
Edmonton hires:
Head coach: Scott Arniel.
I've been huge on this coach because of the way he took a depleted Manitoba Moose AHL team and transformed them into serious Calder Cup condenders. He's done work in the NHL before as an assistant to Lindy Ruff in Buffalo and brings new ideas to the team. I think he'll work very well with our young players.
Further, I retain Charley Huddy as assistant coach to run the D. Don Hay (Special Teams) and Pete Peeters (goaltending) round out the coaching staff.
Let's get one thing straight. Nobody is taking on those behemoth contracts that Lowe handed out to Staios and Moreau. It's just not happening, so I'll have to make the best with the bargaining chips I've got.
Edmonton signs:
G Martin Biron to a 1-year 3.0M contract OR G Dwayne Roloson to a 1-year 3.0M Contract.
My reasoning here is they're both good goaltenders, and on 1-year contracts I have the ability to scout them at a better level. My preference here is that Biron signs because he's younger and I may be able to sign him longer term if my prospects Deslauriers and Dubnyk falter.
Edmonton trades:
D Denis Grebeshkov and 2010 first round pick to LA Kings for Alex Frolov.
You've got to give up talent to get talent, and I'm making a very bold move here to shore up the forward ranks. Frolov is a big body who can provide offense PVP. He can skate, he can play defense, he's the perfect second option (my first was Gagne, but Philly doesn't want a defender after they picked up Pronger before I could get my hooks in them) on the 1-line with Horcoff-Hemsky. It sucks to give up the first rounder, but I see this team improving this season to the point where the first rounder is somewhere between 20-25 overall. Given that I've double-dipped in the first round this previous draft, it's a cost I'm willing to stomach to acquire Frolov.
Important note about Grebeshkov here. He is, to my eyes, 4th of the top-4 and I really want to get Ladi Smid some more ice time, because I think he brings some good things to that spot. Grebeshkov's skills are duplicated on this roster by Lubomir Visnovsky, and in many senses, Visnovsky>Grebeshkov. Too much money for a 4th defender that I can still trade.
Edmonton signs:
- Milan Kytnar
- Brent Skinner
All to two-way contracts of varying AHL salary. Specific numbers are unimportant to this discussion except in the case of Krog, Schremp and Skinner, all of whom have AHL salaries in excess of 150K (Krog's about 400K) to deter being plucked off waivers, to provide AHL farm depth.
Edmonton signs:
Rob Neidermayer to a 1-year 1.5M contract. Long considered a weakness of the NHL roster is the need for a tough minutes forward to spell Moreau and Pisani. In Neidermayer, we have a Stanley Cup winner who knows what it takes to win. Hopefully he can win some faceoffs for us and take the stress of Shawn Horcoff and Kyle Brodziak.
There's my roster. I've upgraded the 1-line by taking a duplicated skillset from the defensive corps. Because of the unmovable salaries of Moreau, Staios and Pisani, I'm forced to roll with the punches. Thank you very much Kevin Lowe.
Final rosters:
NHL:
Frolov-Horcoff-Hemsky
Penner-Gagner-O'Sullivan
Moreau-Neidermayer-Pisani
Cogliano-Pouliot-Stortini
Ex: Nilsson, Brule
More NHL veterans than this team has seen in a while has pushed Cogliano to the 4th line and Nilsson to the pressbox, but that's what happens when your team is built as it should be. A first line that can outscore other team's scoring lines, a 3rd line that can handle their opponent's other scoring line, a 2-line that can make weaker lines appear stupid (at home with advantage of last change) and a 4-line with speed, defensive acumen, and Zorg.
Souray-Gilbert
Visnovsky-Smid
Staios-Peckham
Strudwick
Puckmovers and defensive defensmen highlight the top-4 pairings. Staios to act as mentor to young Peckham who brings a whole new meaning to the phrase "team toughness". Strudwick to sub in on nights when Peckham needs to see the bigger picture (read: PB time). I envision a 50/32 split between Peckham/Strudwick.
Biron (or Roloson)
Deslauriers
A proven #1 guy at the helm with a prospect with good potential serving as the backup. I don't see any problems here, and if Deslauriers (and dubnyk) falters, there should be some veteran goaltenders available on the cheap.
Total caphit: 56.4. First call-ups inclue Krog, Schremp and Potulny for top-6 roles, Jacques and Reddox for bottom-6, MacIntyre if I need a fight specialist, Chorney for defense, and Dubnyk for goaltending.
It's a team spending to the cap, but with Uncle Pennybags (Katz) funding the bills, I'm allowed to do what I need to make this team competitive. I anticipate this team finishing 6th in the Conference.
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Good luck to you for the competition!!!
I disagree with some of your choices regarding draft and FA.
It was difficult for any team to try and get another’s 1 rd draft pick. I dont think Omark rights and 2nd rounder would have been sufficient. Given that Omark had just fled to KHL.
In the draft we did take a couple of players of the chart, but rest was fine. Olivier roy is the Canadian Mike lee. Getting Toni Rajala and Anton Lander were smart moves too. I was rooting for Zach Budidh, but hey…scouts know best.
In the free agency: We did offer Roloson one year contract. But he was looking for a 2 year deal. Many of us wanter Biron too. But Khabibulin is probably a better goaltender than Biron. What hurts is the length of the contract. About the minor leaguers signings, i think Oilers did a good job this season. We shored up the Springfiled D and O. Look for Falcons to be a much better team this season.
Though Rob Niedermeyer is listed as a center, I am not sure he played as one last season for the ducks. I think Pahlsson was their checking line center till the trade deadline anyway. The oilogoshpere has pushed for many candidates for the checking line center position: Malhotra, Betts and many others. I too think that we are a bit skewed when it comes to defensively reliable centers.
I like Frolov as a player. However, I dont think he is the right fit on the top line. Frolov has always played against middling competition. He is one year removed from FA status and we have no idea how much he will demand. Further it was proved (statistically) by CoppernBlue that Penner is the right man for the job. Also Smid hasnt really merited top4 minutes just yet. That said, the trade would have been a fair and intersting one. Put Penner on the 1st line and Frolov on the second and we got 2 dangerous forward lines.
I am not unhappy about Pat Quinn and Tom Renney hirings. I did initially, but I too have bought into Quinn’s system ;)
Regarding your roster. I think having Brodziak as the 4th line center would make sense, as you did not trade him during your draft. However, I really don’t like Rob Neidermeyer. If he was any good, I am sure Anaheim would have re-signed him.
What happened to Brodziak?
I wouldn’t fire Mactavish – I’d make him EVP of player development. If anyone can make kids play a complete game it’s him.
I like Arniel but Katz wouldn’t let you do it :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Brodziak
He was the unfortunate victim of the “don’t post while drunk” rule.
He should replace Pouliot on the 4-line, effectively waiving Brule.
Lovely thoughts, though why there wasn’t something about telling Steve Staios and Ethan Moreau you’re taking them to a nice home in the country is beyond me.
I also disagree with your assessments of some of the prospects. I don’t dig on Schroeder at all – at least, no more than Omark. Schroeder is a midget, Omark is a midget who’s proven he can dominate one of the five best leagues in the world. There’s an important difference there.
Actually, Cam Abney aside, the draft is the least of my concerns about the Lowebellini eras. But your post-draft stuff is spot-on.
Omark
In effectively swapping Omark for Schroder, I turn the clock back 4 years on a small prospect. It’s asset management that is important here. With all the small forwards on the team currently we have no room (or use) for Omark. In 2-3 years when Schroeder is ready to step in, we have no idea what the look of this team is going to be.
If you (and SumOil) don’t like the swap of picks, and Lou doesn’t bite on what I’m offering, I’d keep the pick at 40 and draft a big body like Zach Budish or Drew Shore.
Linus Omark won’t be playing in the NHL until next season at the earliest. By then, things might have changed. It’s always dangerous to play the “swap more talent for less talent” game or to arrange your prospects based on need rather than skill.
If Tambellini does something clever for once and flips a small young forward to fill one of our holes, then all of a sudden Omark has a place in our lineup. Or if Patty O’Lanterns blows four different knee ligaments. Or if it turns out Comrie is done.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 2, 2009 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions
Not going to comment on your drafts cause nobody knows who is going to pan out, but Omark has shown some ability in a pro league, and that is a considerable edge.
1 year of Frolov is not worth Grebeshkov and a 1st rounder.
Signing Biron is fair, but seeing as you paid him double what he actually signed for (NYI isn’t exactly attractive over Oilers) I say you made a mistake.
Honestly I think the current team is better than your team. Add in that missing faceoff/pk guy and we have a really good quality team.
Grebs and a first for one year of Frolov is an overpay in my view. Trouble is if Frolov had a good year he becomes a) essential and b) unaffordable, and if he has a so-so year (as he did in L.A. last year where he had the worst minus/60 of all regular forwards), well we gave up a lot to get him. Either way he’s likely gone at the end of the year. I’d rather keep the rights to Grebs who is still RFA, and the first-rounder.
Frolov might be of more interest to a team on the cusp, which Oilers aren’t.
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