Oilers v. Canadiens - Psalm 135:13-21
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 11:00 AM MDT
in Game-Day Threads
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PrintMontreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers, Oct 10, 2009 8:00 PM MDT
But the name of Yahweh endures forever,
The power of Yahweh, through all generations.
Yahweh will vindicate his chosen team,
And have compassion on those who worship in the house of God.
The idols of those who think themselves a nation,
mere men, like Beliveau and Lafleur,
their greatness does not endure.
They have hands,
but cannot shoot;
they have legs,
but cannot skate;
they have eyes,
but have no vision
and no strength is left in their bodies.
Those who look to them for hope,
who indulge in fading memories
are presented this reality:
the Canadiens are just another team.
Let those who worship at Rexall Place call on the name of Yahweh!
Let all of you who would love his team call on the name of Yahweh!
Let every player and coach call on the name of Yahweh!
Let all of us who fear Yahweh call upon his everlasting name!
Let Yahweh be praised in Rexall Place,
and let Edmonton be his dwelling place forever!
Praise Yahweh.
Montreal Canadiens (2-2-0) @ Edmonton Oilers (1-1-1)
Rexall Place, 7:30 PM MDT
Television: CBC
More analysis after the jump...
Visiting Team Scouting Report: The Montreal Canadiens have gotten off to a rough start so far this season. I wasn't particularly convinced by them before they lost Andrei Markov to injury in the first game of the season (I have them down for 9th in the East). Replacing him with former Oiler and current French-Canadian Marc-Andre Bergeron has done nothing to instill any confidence. Although the Canadiens won their first two games of the season their team Corsi was -35 and two losses later it stands at -65. This is a team that has had some issues early on and is coming off a real drubbing at the hands of the Canucks. If the Oilers want to have a shot at the playoffs, they need to be racking up points against these Eastern Conference bubble teams. Although, for the Canadiens to have a shot at the playoffs, they need to be racking up points against the Western Conference bubble teams. Maybe we'll see another shoot-out. Everyone is happy! (note: Bruce isn't happy).
Scoring Chance Project: Most Oiler fans frequenting this little part of the internet probably already know that Dennis King is tracking scoring chances for the Oilers this year (results can be found here). If you didn't already know, some of those numbers are popping up on the sidebar here at C+B. SCF/15 is "Scoring Chances For while on the ice per fifteen minutes." SCA/15 is "Scoring Chances Against while on the ice per 15 minutes." SCDiff/15 is "Scoring Chance Differential while on the ice per fifteen minutes." These numbers are all based on the tracking done by Dennis (we trust him). Now, the thing is, Dennis has started a bit of a trend and Olivier of En Attendant Les Nordiques has been tracking scoring chances for the Montreal Canadiens this year. So, if you're interested in the "what is a scoring chance" discussion, want to get a non-Oiler perspective on the game or need a recap of the night's events I highly recommend learning French. So that you can read Olivier's report on the game (at least the numbers are in English!).
Expected Starting Lineups:
Montreal Canadiens (2-2-0):
Cammalleri - Gomez - Gionta
Latendresse - Lapierre - Moen
Pacioretty - Plekanec - Kostitsyn
Laraque - Chipchura - D'Agostini
Hamrlik - Spacek
Weber - Gill
Mara -Gorges
Price
Edmonton Oilers (1-1-1):
Jacques - Horcoff - Hemsky
O' Sullivan - Gagner - Stone
Penner - Brule - Comrie
Moreau - Cogliano - Stortini
Visnovsky - Staios
Grebeshkov - Gilbert
Smid - Strudwick
Khabibulin
Behind the Numbers: J.F Jacques continues to struggle in all areas where he's last on the team in Scoring Chances against /15 and last among forwards in Chances differential /15, bleeding 4.369 chances against / 15. He's also last among forwards in Corsi / 15 at -5.957. Ladislav Smid has benefited from the amount of time he's spent with Lubomir Visnovsky. He's leading the defense in chances differential thus far at 1.395 and his Corsi /15 is -.372. It's early, but he's showing signs of getting it.
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Scott does a fantastic job.
If this level of play continues, however, we may need to call in HBomb for a drink recipe GDT post.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Today is the day we should win. There is no ways i see a loss. We are a superior team and should play that way
Man – the commentors here are so cheery compared to the authors.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I find them equally lacking and inconsistent.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Both are fast small-ish but skilled team up front. Our defense is better than theirs and at this point goalies match up fairly equally.
I think the Oilers have a good chance against this team. The Canadiens are really hurting on the back end and I like the Oilers depth at F over Montreal’s as well. I’m surprised you see the goaltending as even. By my count the Canadiens have two goalies who I think are better bets than Khabibulin without taking contracts into consideration. Even Sanford is probably about equal to the Maginot Line and is almost certainly better than the guy we have riding the pine.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 3:46 PM MDT up reply actions
I dont think there is much difference at present between the goaltenders. Of course both Price and Halak are young and have a huge potential. Of course either of them can get hot and steal the game which at present Khabibulin cant. However, they are still inconsistent and I cant give them an edge here.
The Maginot line wasnt to be blamed last game versus cgy. He played well. Cgy got the bounces thats all. If he plays the way he played thursday, everyone might shower him with praise by the end of the game.
Even though our Forward depth is better, their line 1 is more dynamic. Our defense will have to do a good job to shut the little trio down
Of course he can. He won the Stanley Cup1
Seriously, of course he can. He’s stolen a lot of games in this league, and he’ll be stealing a few more before he’s done. Hopefully more than a few.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 10, 2009 5:21 PM MDT up reply actions
Now, and maybe I’m wrong about this, but in terms of save percentage or GAA, every goalie is inconsistent. No one puts up between .880 and .920 every game or allows 2-3 goals every time. But if I had to pick one goalie to start 65 games for the Oilers this year, setting aside the contract and completely disregarding any development for future years, I’d go with Halak, Price, Khabibulin, Sanford, Deslauriers based on their play over the last several years. What would be your order for those five?
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 6:14 PM MDT up reply actions
I would probably take Khabibulin.
If you take just past performance (lets say 2 years).
Khabibulin and Price have played the same number of games. Halak hasnt played more than 34. If you take last season as a measure, Khabibulin outplayed both goalies. Also the Bulin Wall has a wealth of experience. So for just this season I give him an edge over the competition. But a goalie for the future will be Halak. He has definitely outplayed Price. But MC constantly portray price as their starting goalie. I sure think the Maginot line is better than Jesus Price, who would most probably be in net today
Now, the Khabibulin topic has been addressed a number of different times but I think there are a few things that should point us toward the younger players. First, for Halak we have his solid NHL numbers but also great AHL performance. Each of the last four seasons Halak has delivered high quality netminding.
Which brings me to “tak(ing) last season as a measure” in isolation. Last year happens to be Khabibulin’s best by far. Why should we look at that one data point when we have so many others that can help us to make a decision? In Khabibulin’s case those other data points do not point us in a happy direction. His performance over the three previous years has been pretty poor. He’s also an older goalie at the stage of his career where most goalies are trending down. Do you think there’s good reason to believe he’ll be able to replicate last year’s performance?
That leaves Price. In contrast to Khabibulin, he’s at an age where most goalies are trending up. Contrarian Goaltender did a great article on why Price is a good candidate to rebound from last year’s season. I’ll give a couple of examples from his work. Price, age 22 goalies have put up a Sv% of .899 while age 23 goalies have put up a Sv% of .907. Price also had a below average PK Sv% which tends to be a lot more volatile from year to year, i.e. there’s a good chance that number will improve and his overall Sv % will go with it. A lot of these data points are.
Finally, Gabe Desjardings did a study on EV Sv% since the lockout where shot quality was taken into consideration. I’m not sure I buy into shot quality but one of the things yay-Khabibulin folks pointed out was that nay-Khabibulin folks weren’t looking at shot quality. This study does and finds that Khabibulin performed about even with expectations while both Halak and Price outperformed expectations significantly.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 7:33 PM MDT up reply actions
However, the goalie stats is like a team stats. The Defense they are playing behind is going to be bleeding goals. MTL will give quality chances. The fact that our defense is better. Khabulin though old, isnt that bad yet. Not every goalie goes on an exponential decline(as roloson showed). I have confidence in bulin wall for at least this season.
Will price and halak be better? yes. Will they better under this MTL defense . I guess not.
Thinking further, I yield to your experience. You make many valid points which I cant counter. I guess I am just being my optimistic self.
Hey, optimism has its good points. I’ll be the first to celebrate with you if Khabibulin replicates last year’s performance this year. Especially if he can do it in 65 games or more.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 8:15 PM MDT up reply actions
Did Kevin Weeks just reference Steve Staios’ junior play from 17 years ago as a reason why he is a good puck carrier?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Scott Oake is pretty excited about that magazine.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m glad that Khabibulin froze that puck. No need to try and play it.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Gagner unable to change works out well.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
As long as he’s discreet, I’m not going to complain.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 8:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Scott Oake
Has to be the most socially uncomfortable reporter on the continent.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh no!
Mc79 is going to be SO disappointed!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Nah. This just brings him closer to another record. He only needs two more pointless games (not including tonight) and he has the record alone for longest career with only two points (exactly).
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Staios
Does he look “off” to anyone else?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It looks like your optimism is being fed tonight (for Derek and I it’s more a force-feeding).
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 9:31 PM MDT up reply actions
You know, I like Ryan Stone. Maybe I’m an idiot, but of the three scrubs on this team he’s my favourite by a mile. I admit that a big part of that is his ability to piss the other team off but he also does some nice things aside from that.
Brule on the other hand, not so much. Although I’m not sure why Grebs decided to pinch there either.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 9:38 PM MDT up reply actions
Brule should sit if Pouliot ever gets that pubic thing to clear up. He does some nice things, but he spends so much time out of position.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Brule should sit now. I’m convinced that putting Cogs at center and Nilsson in for Brule would leave us better off.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions
Stone is the least offensive of the rubbydubs.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think Derek meant offensive as in “terrible” as opposed to “gifted with the puck” but he may have been setting a purposeful pun trap. If so, one of us has now fallen for it.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:00 PM MDT up reply actions
1. I agree with this. Hemsky has set up a few chances this game and just generally seems more involved.
2. His name is Visnovsky, though you’re right about the pronounciation. If only I had access to the correct diacritical marks!
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:12 PM MDT up reply actions
The first line is still bleeding chances against…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
We’re (at least I’m) not saying that Hemsky is at the top of his game, just that he’s getting better. I thought this game was by far his best. The first line as a whole still gave up a lot of chances but at least they created some this time. It’s improvement. Maybe next game they’ll be able to break even on the chances.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 10:29 AM MDT up reply actions
Jacques just doesn’t belong there. I understand the need for an ogre on each line, but they need to do something, anything with Jacques besides that line.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ok a funny numbers game:
Gomez 5-10 making 7+ million
Cammaleri 5-9 making 6 million
Gionta 5-8 making 5 million
1 million per inch!!!!
Ouch
It must have hurt when they signed Hal Gill
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 11, 2009 1:30 AM MDT up reply actions
That holding call was Hemsky trying to make an open ice hit…..poor guy that the refree misunderstood….lol..
Well, both guys looked like they were using their free arms for position. I thought it was a weak call but I can understand why it was made since the Canadiens were in the offensive zone at the time.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Really? I thought that the Canadiens player was “holding” just as much as Hemsky was on that play. That said, those kinds of calls get made all the time. It wasn’t terrible or anything but I think it was a bad break.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Whoa, whoa, whoa… Schremp plays for the Canadiens now?
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Maginot Line is so shitty that even when the puck doesn’t go in he allows a goal!
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:24 PM MDT reply actions
Khabibulin’s look at the goal camera was classic. He looks downright grumpy
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:25 PM MDT up reply actions
At some point, you have to get your fucking stick off the ice when in front of your own net. Wake up.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:27 PM MDT up reply actions
At the end I thought they were playing Moreau-Stortini-Cogliano and Comrie-Brule-Penner. I didn’t really notice anyone get cut out though I thought that the Comrie-Brule-Penner combo was particularly ineffective.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:34 PM MDT up reply actions
No No No……wht i meant was they did not do any thing worthwhile at all. Generally commentators speak out the name when they notice someone do anything. I did not hear their names getting called at all
Ahhh, then I guess we pretty much agree! That Comrie-Brule-Penner trio was bad. I thought Cogs was doing okay though I’m not a fan of putting Stortini on his wing.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Looking back you did pick out the three guys with the least EV ice time so there might be more to it. It could be an interesting game to go back and look at the shift charts. I could have sworn I saw them all out there at least a few times in the third though.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 9:04 AM MDT up reply actions
Well Cogs and strotini was expected as they were the 4th line. But then again, JM kept sending his 4th line of D’Agostini and Lapiererre. Quinn chose to send superior line against them. However, comrie was nowhere to be seen.
Early in thr 3rd period, brule line was used but last 10 mins i did not see comrie…saw brule a couple of shifts. Definetely saw penner. So i assumed the other 2 should be with him, but not hustling enough
The Moreau-Cogliano-Stortini line was abysmal last night.
How were you seeing Cogliano good?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
He didn’t do so well when he was on that line but there was one time in particular when he was out with Hemsky and he forechecked well in the corner, got the puck to Hemsky and eventually got a nice shot on goal from a good spot. Agreed that the line was poor, but I thought that Cogs was the best of the three.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 10:32 AM MDT up reply actions
Ah! Yes, I know the play you’re referencing. That was nice.
I really wish Pisani would get over his back thing or Pouliot with get his pubis thing fixed.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Staios and Smid at the end of the game. And they did well I thought. Also glad that Hemsky missed the empty neet. The last thing we needed was a useless point on Gagner’s stat sheet this summer :)
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:31 PM MDT reply actions
I love Smid this year. Love him. Don’t know what happened to the useless pudgy Czech idiot I remember but this new guy is pretty okay.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:34 PM MDT up reply actions
TOI
Smid 23:12
Staios 21:23
Grebeshkov 20:39
Gilbert 20:18
Visnovsky 18:35
Strudwick 15:53
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 11, 2009 9:20 AM MDT up reply actions
ES TOI
Smid 19:29
Grebeshkov 16:34
Staios 16:23
Gilbert 16:07
Strudwick 15:49
Visnovsky 15:38
That’s a fair bit of clearance for Ladi, 3-4 minutes more than the others.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 11, 2009 9:24 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m still wondering how it is Staios is getting PP time and Smid isn’t.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Because of his pedigree in junior :)
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 10:41 AM MDT up reply actions
Ah yes, his time as a forward two decades ago in Niagara.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Hey, Kevin Weekes told me that it was a good foundation for an argument.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Things that make no sense to me include Jason Strudwick getting more EV ice time than any of the other D. I mean, really?! Sit the man down in the last ten!
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions
He had a monster TOI against the Flames and much less against the Canadiens. Renney’s d management in the Flames game was bizarre, to say the least.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Nope, he was fifth at 15:49, 11 seconds more than Vis. But that by itself is pretty startling.
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 11, 2009 10:55 AM MDT up reply actions
I meant any as in, not sixth, not any as in he had the most. That would be ludicrous.
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 11, 2009 11:07 AM MDT up reply actions
gotcha
and i agree, it’s funny to see him up there with the guy making 8 times the salary
Writer for The Copper & Blue
by Bruce McCurdy on Oct 11, 2009 10:38 PM MDT up reply actions
Even the Maginot Line stopped the Wehrmacht when they ran right at it.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:43 PM MDT reply actions
I sense the opening line of the post-game thread. Also, I nominate Brule for the post-game “awards.”
by Scott Reynolds on Oct 10, 2009 10:47 PM MDT up reply actions
I didn’t actually watch 75% of the game. Soccer won me.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:47 PM MDT up reply actions
He was the worst player on the ice last night for either team – and it’s not close.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Silly Jeff Marek. Tyson Nash couldn’t have borrowed that white suit from Scott Oake; there wasn’t any barbecue sauce on it.
by Benjamin Massey on Oct 10, 2009 10:53 PM MDT reply actions
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