The First Losers

by Derek Zona on May 9, 2009 4:36 PM MDT

In my post about the players that play the tough minutes, I found the numbers show that there are seventeen bonafide tough-minute outscorers in the league right now. They are rare and they are expensive. I came to this conclusion:

There are very few bargains in the world of tough minutes, and even fewer in the world of outscoring tough minutes. "Just get a checking center to play the tough minutes" is something that you'd hear in a discussion on the topic, usually from a person that doesn't want to see their team play talent against toughs. "Checking centers" don't grow on trees - there are eight of them total that can outscore. And they are expensive. Even the centers that are playing the toughs and not outscoring are going to average north of $4 million for 09/10.

There is a weird argument that comes up, mostly in Shawn Horcoff discussions, from time to time. That is, get a lower level "second-toughs" guy on the cheap and make him play the tough minutes, that way, you can pay a less-complete scorer to play the second toughs and run roughshod. Presto! Shawn Horcoff is overpaid.

From the last post, we know that there are a scant few tough minutes outscorers, though Shawn Horcoff IS one of them. I decided to take a look at the second toughs guys.

Here is the raw data, sorted by goal differential/15:

There are 25 guys in the "second-toughs" crew and 15 of them outscore. Their average salary this year was $2,908,800 and next year's average is $3,296,000 with eight free agents in the group. The conclusion? Once again, these fellas are rare. They are expensive, considering their second fiddle status, and they are a highly-desired commodity.

So much of what fans think and say and argue is perception bias, and it's no different when it comes to guys that play tough minutes. Saying things like "just pick up a center than can play the toughs to a draw", implying a flippant tone, is nothing short of hockey insanity. These players are rare and valuable and not easy to find for any price, let alone find easily.

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Looking at that list I think that Steven Reinprecht would be a player of interest to the Oilers Here are some of his 2008-09 states
Reinprecht:
SH TOI/G: 0:59
EV TOI/G: 12:00
Hits: 24
Blocked Shots: 55 (leading all Forwards on his team)
FO%: 48.3%
Total FO: 886 (second most on his team)
Shoots: 95
Shooting %: 14.7% (highest on his team)
Qual Team: 0.06 (6th highest on team)
Qual Comp: 0.00 (9th highest on team)*
* I don't know how you calculated the 'second-toughs' but he does not seem to playing that to me.
GFON/60: 3:19 (second highest)
GAON/60: 2:90
Penalties Drawn: 11

I think there is a player of interest here: he can play on the third line, take a bucket load of Horcoff's faces offs (with reasonable number, maybe), he can spell off some of Horcoff's PK time, and he knows how to block shots. Problems are that he is not very physical (low hits stat), that his shooting % is not really repeatable, he doesn't shot that much, he is left-handed, and his face% doesn't inspire confidence (but he took so many?!?).
Maybe around the same pay day he had last year (two year contract: first year 2 million, and second year 1.5 million, with a total cap hit of 1.75 Million).

by B.C.B. on May 10, 2009 11:51 AM MDT reply actions

I'm not sure that I totally follow what you're saying here. What criteria are you using for a guy to qualify as playing "second toughs"? I ask because it seems like there should be ninety forwards that draw "second toughs" in the league although very few players play the same level of competition consistently throughout the year.

Also, it seems like it might be a mistake to only use results from this past season. Reasoner, for example, was an outscorer against tough opposition this year but last year, not so much. If you're looking for a "tough minutes" guy willing to take a bargain deal it would probably be a better idea to look at guys who have some history of success but who had a tough year this past year, especially if they had a tough year because they had poorer percentages than their history would imply for them going forward.

by Scott on May 10, 2009 12:17 PM MDT reply actions

Scott,

If you read the original post on the tough minutes players, you'll see that the criteria was two years in a row playing the target competition and 65 GP.

by Coach pb9617 on May 10, 2009 2:13 PM MDT reply actions

BCB:

When I looked at Martin Hanzal, I found some interesting things as related to Reinprecht:

As a 20 year old, he took 1019 faceoffs, winning 470 of them for 46.1%. He was second on the team behind Steve Reinprecht. As a 21 year old, he's taken 1039 faceoffs, winning 502 for 48.3% and he's first on the team over Reinprecht by 180 draws. The circumstances behind those faceoffs are even more impressive. Hanzal has started in his own zone 334 times and in the offensive zone 192 times for a Shaw Horcoff-like 142 defensive zone differential. The next highest differential is Reinprecht's 70. Without too much digging, there is a very good chance that Hanzal might be responsible for the resurgence of Steve Reinprecht.If the new coach were able to put Reinprecht in the same situation, ie, playing the second toughs and getting the second faceoffs, I think he'd have similar success.

Of course, there's no way that the Oilers can afford Reinprecht, Moreau and Pisani on the same roster.

by Coach pb9617 on May 10, 2009 2:34 PM MDT reply actions

I agree on the fact that Oilers cannot afford Reinprecht, Moreau and Pisani on the same roster: so I would suggest trading one of the winners. And that be Moreau, since he is not the PK ace that Pisani is.

We need a veteran centre, more then we need two veteran wingers. Between Brodziak and Reinprecht, I think we have two Centres that can be used to play the PK, take defensive zone draws, and do some heavy lifting. This would make us a better team, not a tougher team, but a better one.

by B.C.B. on May 10, 2009 4:32 PM MDT reply actions

Horcoff - Gagner - Reinprecht - Brodziak is something that any coach could roll with.

Hamilenix needs veterans, I still think there is a market for Moreau and Staios there.

by Coach pb9617 on May 10, 2009 6:33 PM MDT reply actions

I agree on both parts: 1) that is a good set up for the pivots, and 2) there is a market Moreau and Staios (vets always have value, even if they make a little to much)

PS: thanks for the help you gave me on the Stortini project over at my blog.

by B.C.B. on May 10, 2009 7:55 PM MDT reply actions

Thanks for the clarification. Just a couple of quick follow-up... what are the target minutes for "second toughs"? Is this forwards ranked 4-6 on their team by QC two years in a row or does it also include guys that had one year 1-3 and one year 4-6? Or is it something else entirely? Thanks.

by Scott on May 11, 2009 12:04 AM MDT reply actions

Hey Scott.

The "second toughs" are guys that aren't on the first list, that played 1st or 2nd toughs as per qualcomp and had the same team ranking for Vic's zonestart metric.

by Coach pb9617 on May 11, 2009 7:55 AM MDT reply actions

Thanks Coach. I know that you hate it when I'm somewhat obtuse and yet... just so I know I'm understanding the criteria correctly... you're saying that to qualify for second toughs a player must rank 1st through 6th among forwards on their team who played in at least 65 games in both QC and ZoneStart in both of the last two years. Correct?

If so, don't you think that's a bit limiting? I mean, you have only 57 players that make the list (for both 1st and 2nd toughs) out of a theoretical 180 spots possible. In some cases, there are only seven or eight forwards total that make the GP minimum so that last year you'd have guys like Nilsson and Gagner qualifying for the Oilers in QC (though not, I would assume ZoneStart). These 57 may have the best track record, but there are others who maybe had an injury one of the two seasons and missed some games (Pisani, Holmstrom, Horcoff(!), Crosby... not that these are cheaper alternatives and in fairness I didn't check the ZoneStart) or simply just miss the cutoff mark one year but could be considered a tough minutes option and have been used in that role at least in these playoffs (Marchant, Yelle).

by Scott on May 11, 2009 1:19 PM MDT reply actions

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Northwest Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	54	34	15	5	73
Minnesota Hockey Wilderness	54	25	21	8	58
Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	55	25	22	8	58
Colorado Mile High Hockey	55	27	25	3	57
Edmonton The Copper & Blue	54	21	28	5	47

(updated 2.10.2012 at 1:26 AM MST)

21 - 28 - 5

Streak: Lost 2

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Colorado Mile High Hockey	Tue 01/31	W 3 - 2