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Get Off Of My Lawn

Craig MacTavish has been defended in some quarters as a good developer of 'kids'. In fact, Lowetide himself defended the coach thusly :

"Do me a favor and find me an NHL coach who has given as many at-bats to kids with a better record than MacT since the run to the Stanley. I'll look forward to it. Should be, two, three pages."



While I don't dispute that MacTavish has been saddled with a large number of developmental prospects through the lack of foresight by the organization, I will dispute that he's done as much as he can with those prospects.

This is a chart comparing total games played by rookies as defined by the NHL, by franchise from the 2006-2007 season through the 2008-2009 season. [Click the image to zoom]




As you can see, the Blue Jackets lead the league in this category with 810, followed by the Oilers at 797 and Chicago with 768. Over that time, the Oilers have put up 240 points, the Blue Jackets 241 and the Blackhawks 250. That the Oilers and MacTavish are special, it seems, isn't accurate. Note here that San Jose is in the company of a number of teams that have done a complete rebuild and have maintained a high level of play.

Perhaps a closer look at the type of games played will show that the Oilers and MacTavish especially are outperforming expectations.

This is a chart comparing total significant games played by rookies, which I'm defining as 1/3 of a season or greater, by franchise from the 2006-2007 season through the 2008-2009 season.




Edmonton rookies have played 655 games, two-thirds of a season more than the Blue Jackets at 593. Chicago has played 550 and Phoenix joins this conversation at 600 games played and 221 points, well below their counterparts.

There was also sentiment that Lemaire develops kids, best expressed here by doritogrande. While that may or may not be true, the simple fact is that over the last three years, the Wild are in the bottom six in games played by rookies at 318 and bottom ten in significant games played by rookies at 221. Lemaire isn't going great guns with the young 'uns.

Back to the issue at hand, it looks like MacTavish is outperforming Gretzky, as always. He's neck-and-neck against Columbus and Chicago. Looking at this season alone:



MacTavish isn't playing rookies this year. The only significant game rookie is Liam Reddox. Both Chicago and Columbus are still bringing kids along, so at least for this season, there is no longer an excuse that he has to bring the kids along with him. There are two other teams in the range of Edmonton over the last three years as far as rookie games played and they are about even to slightly better in points. They are also about to accomplish something MacTavish hasn't been able to do in three years: land a playoff berth. Of course, there isn't any single coach that has had as many rookie games as MacTavish because the two teams in the same range have done something the Oilers haven't: fired their coach.

Here are the numbers overall:

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments |

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Yup coach, you nailed it. I'm not a numbers guy, I just go with what I can observe (the sociologist in me running rampant...), but these numbers support my argument too. Thanks for the link/shameless plug over at my house. I'm sure you saw we added you to our wall of blogs worth reading.

by shepso on Apr 1, 2009 8:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That's you? I didn't realize. I love the work you guys do. It's fantastic.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 1, 2009 8:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Really? Wow coach, thanks!!!! That really means a lot. That is myself and BCB over there featuring a few contributions by our friend Sachia who never seems to blog anywhere else, sadly. We're both grad students who have been living out of town the past while. It gives us a nice break from our work and allows us to really take the crazy philosophy we both study and apply it outside of the classroom sometimes, which explains the Foucault, Badiou and Mao references all over the place...that and we're both diehard fans! It's been more than appreciated to know that you and a few of the other regulars on LT are checking us out.

thanks!

by shepso on Apr 2, 2009 12:23 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm a philo junkie, so for me reading that stuff is fantastic. Inspired by your posts, I almost wrote a Jungian collective unconscious post about Edmonton fans and Horcoff and Penner. I decided I was out of my league and stopped before embarrassing myself though.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 2, 2009 6:59 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

That would have been a thing of beauty! Personally, I've been thinking about relating it to more of a Halbwachs-related collective memory thing, but Jung would have been spectacular! I think you should do it. At this point, what have you got to lose?!

by shepso on Apr 2, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it works so well because the conscious ego is the "saw him good/bad" stuff, the collective unconscious becomes the groupthink of the fanboards and knuckleheads in the bar. Maybe I'll put some work towards it.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 2, 2009 10:54 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It might be more interesting if it was possible to corelate with quality of rookies. I suspect it would lean more in McTavish's favor.

Just looking at top picks since 2003:

Columbus has selected 4th, 8th, 6th, 6th, 7th, and 6th.

Chicago has selected 14th, 3rd, 7th, 3rd, 1st, and 11th.

Edmonton has selected 22nd, 14th, 25th, 45th, 6th, and 22nd.

Perhaps an argument can be made that McTavish has been too successful with what he's been given for rookies and the Oilers just haven't been "bad" enough to get the top 10 picks the other teams have gotten?

by Ted on Apr 2, 2009 2:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I am with Oilswell here, the comparable teams have had better picks then us (and you can add LA and PHX to that list as well). While I won't argue that MacT has been perfect with developing prospects, I would have to say that the the organization has been lack high skill youngsters and the kids he has been developing were to normal fit into grinder roles (both because that is how he coaches and because that is where the team has been hurt alot). Also, the fact that the Oilers have had so many rookie games played is the serious injuries the Oilers have had in the last three seasons.

But if you look at the blue line on that chart it does seem like we are on the lower scale of Pts for rookies . . . and you can compare that to teams that have better, worst, and the same overall draft position. so my point might be moot.

PS: thanks for the kind gossip.

by B.C.B. on Apr 2, 2009 4:45 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It might be more interesting if it was possible to corelate with quality of rookies. I suspect it would lean more in McTavish's favor.

I'm not going to correlate quality of rookie, I'm going to correlate draft position of the rookie playing. I'll have it up next week, I think.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 2, 2009 9:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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