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Gabriel Desjardins has helped hockey fans to quantify something that coaches have always done to varying degrees of success, determine who is best-suited to play the difficult minutes on the ice. In the course of writing my entry on Martin Hanzal, I did some work with the BTN numbers and saw that Hanzal had played the tough minutes two years running on the Coyotes. That led me down the path of finding his peer group in that regard.

Over the last two years, 32 players have played the toughest minutes for their team while playing a minimum of 65 games each year. The list is below, broken down by position.

Center:
Craig Conroy, Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Gomez, Martin Hanzal, Jochen Hecht, Anze Kopitar, Vincent Lecavalier, Evgeni Malkin, Jay McClement, Mike Modano, Rob Niedermayer, Marty Reasoner, Mike Richards, Derek Roy, Eric Staal, Stephen Weiss

Left Wing:
Travis Moen, Rick Nash, Vaclav Prospal, Alexander Steen, Henrik Zetterberg

Right Wing:
Daniel Alfredsson, Colby Armstrong, Shane Doan, Martin Erat, Dany Heatley, Milan Hejduk, Ales Hemsky, Mike Knuble, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jason Pominville, Martin St. Louis



This group does not come on the cheap. This year's average cap hit for the group of 32 was $3,620,281 and the median cap hit was $3,834,000. 25 players in that group are under contract for next year with an average cap hit of $5,068,923 and the median cap hit is $5,300,000. Hanzal at $980,000 almost entirely accounts for that spread.

Out of the main 32, half of those players outscored their competition. For those 16, the average cap hit in 08-09 was $4,085,867 and the median $4,000,000 Next season, 13 of those players are under contract for an average cap hit of $5,725,923 and a median of $5,750,000.

Here is the raw data, sorted by goal differential/15:



A few things jump out on this list. There are very few bargains in the world of tough minutes, and even fewer in the world of outscoring tough minutes. "Just get a checking center to play the tough minutes" is something that you'd hear in a discussion on the topic, usually from a person that doesn't want to see their team play talent against toughs. "Checking centers" don't grow on trees - there are eight of them total that can outscore. And they are expensive. Even the centers that are playing the toughs and not outscoring are going to average north of $4 million for 09/10.

The fact Stephen Weiss is on this list is stunning, at least for me. I devour alot of hockey - ask my wife. I watch games constantly and would never have guessed "Stephen Weiss" as the answer to "Who is the 4th best tough minutes player in the league?". I wouldn't have guessed it with 100 chances to answer. I've got something new to watch for when the Panthers are the game of choice.

A guy that plays a game that everyone can love -- Colby Armstrong -- shows up here. He was an outscorer in Pittsburgh and continues to be the same in Atlanta. He's physical, gritty, works the boards, corners and the front of the net and loves to lay people out in the open ice. He's the only outscorer to play for two different teams over the last two years. He is one of three restricted free agents, along with Stafford and Grebeshkov, that should receive multiple offer sheets this summer.

One Oiler-centric addendum: Shawn Horcoff misses this list by 12 games lost last year due to injury. Looking at the available data from Horcoff, we see that he would be an outscoring at a GF/GA per 15 of .11, good for 9th on the list and he would be the 9th outscoring tough minutes forward. Horcoff's cap hit was $3,600,000 this year, dead on for the group as a whole and a $400,000 bargain when looking at the outscorers only. Beginning next year, Horcoff's cap hit jumps to $5,500,000 which has been the subject of much consternation amongst those Oilers fans that love traditional stats. By the above measure, Horcoff's contract next year is still a $250,000 bargain, provided he can continue to play the tough minutes and outscore.

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Nice post. Thank you - I've been meaning to do something similar.

by Jonathan Willis on Apr 8, 2009 10:53 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

You have me sold on Hansal.

Check out this. Pahlsson's qualteam is super low.

If Grebs were to get multiple offers, what do you think he'd get? Depending on the team and offer (ie anything over 4), I'd let him go. Oilers need cap space and while he is emerging, the strength of the KLo regime is to find capable D.

by Sean on Apr 8, 2009 11:21 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The boys on the post game started tossing around Reasoners name. They were speculating that the fact he hasn't re-signed yet in Atlanta means he could be interested in a return to the Oilers.

I hope they don't get so fixated on finding the ideal player (Hanzal) that they miss out on an adequate part (Reasoner) at the right price.

by steve on Apr 8, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope they don't get so fixated on finding the ideal player (Hanzal) that they miss out on an adequate part (Reasoner) at the right price.

I don't think Hanzal is the ideal player for the situation - I think he's damned good, though. I'm going to try and do this same exercise for guys playing the second toughest minutes over the last two years and see who turns up. My gut tells me that those are the guys that will be more plentiful and much cheaper. We shall see.


Nice post. Thank you - I've been meaning to do something similar.

Thanks, and get off your ass! It's not like you ever write anything anyway :)

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 8, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

If Grebs were to get multiple offers, what do you think he'd get? Depending on the team and offer (ie anything over 4), I'd let him go. Oilers need cap space and while he is emerging, the strength of the KLo regime is to find capable D.

I think he'd get offers in the $2,880,587 - $4,320,880 range, personally. And if he does, I think that the Oilers should match it. They can find defense, but once he kicked the acid habit, he looked like gold for a very long time. He's still really young in defensemen years and has a high-end that seems like it could be well-above Gilbert's high end. If he does get an offer above $4,320,880, I think I'd have a couple of really long nights trying to find god.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 8, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post, great idea. It makes me think we should expand the list to the top five (c,lw, rw,rd, ld) on each team, see how they fared, and identify players that might be sound or even excellent pick ups in a trade.

by JaKing on Apr 8, 2009 7:58 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

By the way, I didn't know my son was logged on to Google, so that's my post under "JaKing," not his post.
cheers
David Staples.

by JaKing on Apr 8, 2009 8:00 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Ya above $4,320,880 I think they should let him go. Its the 3.7-4.3 range OS I'd be scared of. I think he's worth about 3.5.

by Sean on Apr 9, 2009 9:40 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

At that point it depends on the term. The longer the term, obviously the more likely you can afford to match. The Oilers should match a one-year deal and a long term deal in the 3.7-4.3 range. A two or three year deal gets sticky.

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 9, 2009 10:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent post, great idea. It makes me think we should expand the list to the top five (c,lw, rw,rd, ld) on each team,

Thanks David. That was part of my plan for the summer.

see how they fared, and identify players that might be sound or even excellent pick ups in a trade.

So, how about that Colby Armstrong?

by Coach pb9617 on Apr 9, 2009 10:05 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

great post... i might just eat up my 'horcoff consternation' yet.. dont know if that makes grammatical sense, but the point remains...

by Oilmaniac on May 26, 2009 6:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 71 44 24 3 91
Colorado 70 40 24 6 86
Calgary 71 36 26 9 81
Minnesota 71 34 31 6 74
Edmonton 71 22 42 7 51

(updated 3.20.2010 at 5:14 AM PDT)

22 - 42 - 7

Won 1

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:25)

Gilbert (22:10)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:29)

Grebeshkov (17:16)

Points:

Penner (53)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (26)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (27)

Visnovsky (22)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.145)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (178)

Gilbert (82)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.470)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.011)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.950)

Gilbert (4.279)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.592)

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