Prize Prospects and Minor League Journeymen

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 16, 2009 12:19 PM PDT Comment 9 comments

The picture here is of Devan Dubnyk, the Edmonton Oilers #1 ranked goaltending prospect and their first selection of the 2004 NHL Entry Draft. He's had a decent season on a struggling AHL franchise, and is often mentioned as one of the few bright spots of the Falcon's dismal season.

Here are his numbers on the season:

- 55 games played
- 16-36-2 record
- 2.96 GAA
- .906 SV%

For a guy who has lost more than twice as many games as he's won, those are incredible numbers, but there's just one problem - they aren't quite as good as career AHL journeyman/NHL backup Dany Sabourin. Here are Sabourin's numbers since being re-assigned:

- 8 games played
- 3-3-2 record
- 2.92 GAA
- .911 SV%

That's fairly close, at first blush. What's really alarming is that Dubnyk has crashed and burned since Sabourin has been assigned to Springfield. His numbers over that span:

- 10 games played
- 0-9-1 record
- 3.50 GAA
- .890 SV%

In point of fact, Dubnyk's collapse has masked an otherwise decent turnaround from the rest of the roster since Rob Daum replaced Jeff Truitt in mid-February. It could be something as simple as a cold streak for Dubnyk and a hot streak for Sabourin, so now isn't the time to write Dubnyk off, but it is worth noting. It's a real cause for concern that Dubnyk's been so soundly outplayed by a player like Sabourin, who has been decent in NHL stints but has never really excelled at that level. It rather strongly implies that Dubnyk may be further away from NHL duty than is commonly expected.

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It rather strongly implies that Dubnyk may be further away from NHL duty than is commonly expected.

Could it suggest exhaustion?

There are a group of goalies that are 9 GP behind and about 200 SA behind DD. The dude's workload has been way to much.

by Coach pb9617 on Mar 16, 2009 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Coach: It very well could, although it would be strange for that exhaustion to manifest itself for the first time when Dubnyk's finally getting rested.

When I looked at Dubnyk's game-by-game record, I was rather surprised to see that he played stronger toward the end of consecutive-games-played streaks rather than the beginning. He's a horse, but I rather suspect he's the kind of guy that wants (or even needs) to play every game.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 16, 2009 2:12 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Coach: It very well could, although it would be strange for that exhaustion to manifest itself for the first time when Dubnyk's finally getting rested.

I run a 24*7 department. When things are crazy and I'm working 75 hour weeks back to back to back, I'm able to maintain my workload and not much else. When I finally get a chance to breathe and work 50 hours, I collapse in exhaustion. Maybe he was just keeping it together the whole time and finally it hit him. Happens to nurses and doctors too.

When I looked at Dubnyk's game-by-game record, I was rather surprised to see that he played stronger toward the end of consecutive-games-played streaks rather than the beginning.

Hm, that is interesting. I wonder what his preparation and coaching is like.

by Coach pb9617 on Mar 16, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Coach: I had a post already to rip Truitt's handling of Dubnyk, but then I looked at Dubnyk's record in 2nd game in 2 nights/3rd game in three nights scenarios, and his numbers were actually above his season average.

I'm going to take a more detailed look at it when I do up Dubnyk's prospect profile, but I'm convinced that at least in that instance, Truitt wasn't wrong.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 16, 2009 2:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Goalies typically do better in the second half of back to backs, no?

I mean Christ, it's just playing goal, which ranks somewhere between golf and badminton on the 'physically exhausting things to do' continuum.

by Vic Ferrari on Mar 16, 2009 2:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Vic: I've never played net but stories of Felix Potvin losing ten pounds in a single game were enough for me.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 16, 2009 2:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Liut would lose even more, that was before the water bottles on the net. Some of these buildings are really warm and humid at ice level, and the goalie equipment has the insulating equivalent of a down parka.

So I'm thinking that Potvin would have lost about 9 pounds by just standing there in the goalie equipment.

Exhaustion, exschmaustion. It's frickin' goaltending, people. Sheesh. :D

by Vic Ferrari on Mar 16, 2009 3:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff, as always, Jonathan.

You're a reporting machine.

by dstaples on Mar 16, 2009 8:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

JW: late to the game here but these are stunning numbers.

As someone who was critical of the handling of Dubynk (playing too many games), I have to admit that I would never have expected this kind of result.

At least Truitt was good at one thing, eh?

by oilerdago on Mar 18, 2009 11:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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