Oilers Corsi Over the Last Ten

A further refinement of the data, filtering out the faceoff effect. So, if you took more defensive zone than offensive zone draws I increased the Corsi for 0.6 * draws:

Pouliot 17
Gagner 12
Nilsson 5
O'Sullivan 2
Cole (1)
Hemsky (5)
Penner (6)
Cogliano (9)
Horcoff (10)
Kotalik (17)
Moreau (17)
Stortini (22)
Pisani (24)
Reddox (25)
Brodziak (53)


Gilbert 15
Peckham (6)
Grebeshkov (11)
Smid (20)
Souray (22)
Strudwick (31)
Staios (38)

Horcoff still needs to be better, and Gilbert looks like a bloody superstar. Pouliot needs to be back in the lineup yesterday. And the bottom of the lineup isn't doing anything positive.

Brodziak is drowning.

Thanks, Quain. Do you by any chance have a link to where that .6 number was arrived at? I've heard it mentioned, but I've never seen the work to arrive at it.

I wish I could, I've definitely heard it thrown around by people I trust, but I never saw the math.

Quain: I know what you mean. The folks who mention it are the kind of guys who would know, but I just don't feel comfortable using it until I know how it was arrived at.

Why were Pouliot and Gagner seperated again?

And quain's refinement of the numbers shows Horcoff isn't that bad, but the dude has to be drowning.

Quains numbers jive with Scott's numbers - he's overmatched in his current role.

Staios is heavily overmatched and should be on the second pairing. Gilbert and Souray should be on 1.

Quains numbers jive with Scott's numbers - he's overmatched in his current role.

He being Brodziak. Sorry.

Remember 7 weeks-or-so ago when Horcoff nearly missed a game with a "sore back"?

I'd like to see a before & after using that day as the divider.

Good post, JW. I have to admit that even before I got to the update I was thinking "faceoffs", and sure enough you guys are all over it. Good stuff.

I saw the adjustment for Brodziak corrected him from -55 to just -53, so I thought maybe it was a mistake. But no, in those 10 games he has NOT been subjected to a ridiculous ratio of own zone draws, which remains 2:1 (295:148) for the season but just 45:41 in those 10 games. He has not translated the get out of jail free card into anything resembling positive flow of play, being outshot 66-34 and out-Corsied 116-61. Where it matters, though, he is +4/-4, thanks to an insane PDO # of 1.057.

That said I'm not sure how much stock to put in faceoff data at any coefficient in a situation where the team's faceoff numbers are 154:153, which doesn't explain either a storng negative Corsi nor a strong positive goal differential, let alone the insane team PDO of 1.039. Presumably the 0.6 coefficient was arrived at through a much larger sample size, but it won't mean much in this context.

I agree Pouliot is not getting much love of late despite some generally fine play, esp. on the 12-89-78 unit which I have absolutely no idea why MacT broke it up. I don't put a whole lot of stock in the blocked shots portion of Corsi, I prefer Fenwick or even straight shots where Pouliot is a more modest +3 and +4 respectively, but most of all I prefer goals where Poo is +5/-2. Stortini is the same +5/-2 over the last 10, yet both youngsters find themselves confined to the pressbox. At which I can only ask MacT: WTF?

Mr. dB: Horcoff did miss two games at that time. It happened right around the time Visnovsky went down, so how much of Shawn's drop-off is due to the back and how much to the back end might still be open to question.