Kotalik Vs. Reddox

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 14, 2009 6:11 PM MDT

This is Ales Kotalik, the player currently slotted on the left wing of Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff.

Let's compare him with Liam Reddox, fringe NHL'er, at even-strength. To make this fair, we'll pretend that both players have played a full 82 games this season, and have played the same amount of ice-time (12:00 minutes a night, say) and have only played at even-strength. How would their scoring numbers compare?

Kotalik

2007-08: 82GP - 12G - 8A - 20PTS
2008-09: 82GP - 7G - 11A - 18PTS

Reddox

2008-09: 82GP - 10G - 11A - 21PTS

The point I'm making should be obvious. It is beyond me how the Hockey Operations department of the Edmonton Oilers does not understand that Ales Kotalik is not a scorer at even-strength. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that there was nary a word critical of the Kotalik trade in the Edmonton media, though.

After all, he's friends with Hemsky, right?

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Come draft time, there should be a number of people taking a hard look at why he was acquired for a 2nd when Satan was available for free at half-price. If Hemsky is now making personnel moves, that makes the fourth guy that can call such shots in the organization. It's a mess.

by Coach pb9617 on Mar 15, 2009 9:20 AM MDT reply actions

Yeah. At the time of the deadline, I was swept up in the excitement of our net gain of O'Sullivan/Kotalik for Cole/5th and didn't take a critical enough look at the "Kotalik for a 2nd" move on its own merits. I still like what they did at the deadline over doing nothing but O'Sullivan/2nd for Cole/5th looks like it would've been a better bet.

by Scott on Mar 15, 2009 5:15 PM MDT reply actions

Stortini
---------

2007-08: 82 GP - 6G - 17A - 23PTS
2008-09: 82 GP - 15G - 15A - 30PTS

That's a bit of an eye-opener, what? To doublecheck I went to BtN and looked at its old reliable EVP/60 metric. Here's the current list (forwards, 40+ GP):

2.20 Hemsky
1.85 O'Sullivan
1.79 Stortini
1.75 Cogliano
1.73 Pouliot
1.67 Penner
1.60 Horcoff
1.58 Moreau
1.54 Gagner
1.49 Brodziak
1.27 Reddox
1.08 Nilsson
1.07 Kotalik

Even as one of Zorg's biggest fans, I have to admit that absolutely shocked me. Third on the club? Wowee.

Follow-up question: What the FUCK is he doing in the pressbox?

by Bruce on Mar 15, 2009 9:50 PM MDT reply actions

Other follow-up question:

Why the HELL did we trade for Kotalik?

by Bruce on Mar 15, 2009 9:51 PM MDT reply actions

Bruce: In fairness, Stortini's riding all sorts of pretty SH%/SV% numbers right now.

But still, I don't think there's any argument that he's one of the 12-best forwards on this team.

And as far as I can tell, all that Kotalik brings is powerplay presence.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 15, 2009 11:49 PM MDT reply actions

To be fair though the PP has been awesome with him though.

by Black Dog on Mar 16, 2009 8:22 AM MDT reply actions

Though.

by Black Dog on Mar 16, 2009 8:22 AM MDT reply actions

Bruce: In fairness, Stortini's riding all sorts of pretty SH%/SV% numbers right now.

Actually his Sv% ON of .895 is the worst on the club among regulars. He's had some real shitty luck in that dept which has impacted his +/-., including 3 GA on bad line changes. But since we're measuring offence here, Sv% is irrelevant.

Zorg's Sh% ON of 12.7% is highest among regulars, and seems unsustainable. EXCEPT ... we were drawing the same conclusions last year when Stortini, Brodziak and Glencross were posting similarly high percentages on similarly low shot volumes. Just luck, two years in a row? Or perhaps a shot taken in close to the net with all kinds of commotion in the goal mouth has a better than normal chance of going in? As I keep coming back to in this Corsi/PDO debate, not all shots are created equal.

But still, I don't think there's any argument that he's one of the 12-best forwards on this team.

No argument between you and me. That doesn't change the fact he's eating popcorn these days while the newcomer takes his spot in the line-up. I think we miss his energy and physical presence, and if the change was supposed to improve our offence, well there's nothing in these numbers or what we're actually seeing on the ice to support that.

by Bruce on Mar 16, 2009 9:14 AM MDT reply actions

Actually his Sv% ON of .895 is the worst on the club among regulars.

D'OH! I don't know what I was looking at there, Bruce.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 16, 2009 9:19 AM MDT reply actions

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Northwest Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Vancouver Nucks Misconduct	54	34	15	5	73
Minnesota Hockey Wilderness	54	25	21	8	58
Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	55	25	22	8	58
Colorado Mile High Hockey	55	27	25	3	57
Edmonton The Copper & Blue	54	21	28	5	47

(updated 2.10.2012 at 1:26 AM MST)

21 - 28 - 5

Streak: Lost 2

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@ Calgary Matchsticks and Gasoline	Tue 02/21	7:00 PM MST

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Colorado Mile High Hockey	Tue 01/31	W 3 - 2