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The Devil in the Details

Dave Hodge of TSN had the following blurb in his latest blog:

Thumbs up to the New Jersey Devils. We're noticing them now because Brodeur is re-writing the goalie record books, but with Brodeur, Kevin Weekes and Scott Clemmensen in goal, the Devils have been nothing less than the NHL's best team in the second half of the season.

Yes indeed, they have. It's a funny thing to run the numbers that the Devils goaltenders have put up this year, because they're so... uniform:

Scott Clemmensen: 25-13-1, 2.39 GAA, .917 SV%
Martin Brodeur: 14-3-2, 2.06 GAA, .923 SV%
Kevin Weekes: 7-4-0, 2.27 GAA, .924 SV%

In a week where Martin Brodeur passed Patrick Roy as the league's all-time wins leader, it is perhaps slightly unsettling to note what's happened to Clemmensen in the meantime.

You see, with Martin Brodeur injured, the Devils called up Clemmensen on an emergency basis - which meant that when Brodeur returned, Clemmensen could be demoted to the AHL without needing to clear waivers. That's what Lou Lamoriello did, rather than risk losing Kevin Weekes for nothing on the waiver wire. Clemmensen's record in the AHL stands in contrast to his fine NHL numbers:

Clemmensen (AHL): 5-4-1, 3.57 GAA, .892 SV%.

That could be explained by any number of things: for example, it's entirely possible that Clemmensen's in a bit of a funk because after winning 25 games for his NHL team, he was discarded in that casually cut-throat way that Lou Lamoriello does so well (see: Mogilny, Alexander for another example).

On the other hand, a quick glance at the history of Clemmensen and Weekes shows both to be nothing special as NHL goaltenders; Clemmensen is a minor-league journeyman, while Weekes has moved from NHL team to NHL team until somewhere along the line he ceased to be a "future starter" and turned into yet another one of those generic 1A/1B-type goaltenders. I am of course not arguing that either is on par with Brodeur, despite the similarity in their numbers this season.

What I am arguing is that Brodeur's numbers are certainly at least in part a product of playing for one of the most successful, defensively sound NHL franchises over the course of his career. How much of his reputation does he owe to his team? That's a question that probably won't ever be answered.

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Nice post Jonathan. I think it's very true the Brodeur has done well in part because of the quality of his team. One thing that's been interesting in the last few days is the dialogue around "Brodeur-Roy: Who is the Best Ever?" I haven't heard too many in the media pipe up with a third option which I find strange. I would tend to rate Hasek as the best of my lifetime.

which meant that when Brodeur returned, Clemmensen could be demoted to the AHL without needing to clear waivers.

I think they were actually forced to demote Clemmensen as per the CBA and then he would need to clear waivers in order to be recalled on a non-emergency basis. I don't blame the Devils for not wanting to lose Clemmensen for nothing. If Brodeur or Weekes is injured in the future, they can just call up Clemmensen again.

by Scott on Mar 19, 2009 12:38 AM MDT reply actions  

Scott: Initially, yes, the Devils were forced to send down Clemmensen but after the trade deadline they could recall him without clearing waivers, so it's now a preference rather than a forced decision.

I'll try to be clearer in future ;)

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 19, 2009 7:54 AM MDT reply actions  

they're so... uniform:

Sv%
-----
1. Brodeur .923
2. Weekes .920
3. Clemmensen .917

SA/60
--------
1. Brodeur 26.9
2. Clemmensen 29.0
3. Weekes 30.0

GAA
-----
1. Brodeur 2.06
2. Clemmensen 2.39
3. Weekes 2.41

Win%
--------
1. Brodeur .789
2. Clemmensen .654
3. Weekes .583


Seems pretty stratified to me, JW.

by Bruce on Mar 19, 2009 6:43 PM MDT reply actions  

Bruce: Is SA shots against? Because if you're counting SA, GAA and Wins, I assume your thinking that the psychological effect of having Brodeur is causing this?

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 19, 2009 7:12 PM MDT reply actions  

Yeah, Shots Against. And no, I don't think it's psychological, I think New Jersey is a stronger defensive club with Brodeur in the sweeper role. His "soft" skills (puckhandling, rebound control) likely have the effect of reducing opposition shots by 1 or 2 per game. It's right there in the stats if you look.

If you face fewer shots per game and stop a higher percentage of what shots you do face, your GAA will be significantly lower and your Points % is apt to be higher. So it is with Brodeur, who has substantial separation on both of his replacements (~15% better GAA).

The goalie's influence on shot prevention has been an ongoing discussion over at the Contrarian Goaltender's blog, provocatively named Brodeur is a Fraud.

by Bruce on Mar 19, 2009 10:10 PM MDT reply actions  

Bruce: That's a much nicer argument - my natural inclination is to move away from arguments that rely on things that aren't measureable (i.e. sports psychology, at least from our vantage point).

That's assuming quite a difference from Brodeur's admittedly non-trivial puck skills, though.

by Jonathan Willis on Mar 20, 2009 12:23 AM MDT reply actions  

What impact does any legendary goalie's team have on his final placement? If you look back at the great goalies of NHL history, how many played on shit teams most of their career? Gump Worsley played for some mediocre Rangers teams at the beginning. Hasek had a lot of years as the best player in Buffalo by a country mile. Hell, Contrarian's a big fan of vintage Cujo, and none of his Blues, Oilers, or Leafs teams did much, despite the disparities in talent between the three. By contrast, there's Plante, and Dryden, and Roy, and Broda, and Sawchuk, and Hall, and Tiny Thompson, Bill Durnan, George Hainsworth, and Georges Vezina himself. All champions on elite level teams.

by Doogie2K on Mar 21, 2009 12:44 PM MDT reply actions  

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