Target of Opportunity: Tampa Bay
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 13, 2008 3:58 PM MDT
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There's an interesting write-up by St. Petersburg Times journalist Damian Cristodero on Tampa Bay's budget situation and their likely solution (hat-tip to Spector).Here are some choice segments:
A little more than a month before training camp, the Lightning has a salary cap number of $55.66-million, very close to the limit of $56.7-million. This, of course, is not where the team will end up. Tampa Bay has, hypothetically, spoken in the past of a payroll anywhere between $45-million and $48-million.
For now, though, what the team is looking at is trades. Though things have been quiet the past few weeks, vice president of hockey operations Brian Lawton said that has not diminished the team's desire to deal. Neither Lawton nor Koules would talk about specific names, but it seems certain Jussi Jokinen, Michel Ouellet and Jason Ward are being dangled.
Given the team's cap number, it is much more likely to swap players for minor-league depth or draft choices.
Ignoring guys who just signed contracts (Lecavalier, Malone, Vrbata, etc.), and Ryan Craig (who evidently won't be moved), here are the forwards who could potentially be available, ranked by salary:
Martin St. Louis - 5.25M/yr for 3 seasons
Jeff Halpern - 2M/yr for 2 seasons
Jussi Jokinen - 1.81M/yr for 1 season
Michel Ouellet - 1.25M/yr for 1 season
Chris Gratton - 1.25M/yr for 1 season
Evgeny Artyukhin - .95M/yr for 2 seasons
St. Louis would be of interest in a lot of places, but I don't think he'd be worth the cost of acquiring, and I'm not convinced that Tampa Bay wants to move him, either. Jeff Halpern would be a great fit on the Oilers (right-handed shot, face-off ace, has a history of handling tough minutes, reasonably priced, young veteran, ex-captain at the NHL level, etc.) and if available would be a player the Oilers should look at acquiring. The problem is that he scored 10 goals in 19 games for Tampa Bay after coming over from Dallas (riding a ridiculous shooting percentage) and fills the same needs for the Lightning and thus is probably unavailable at this time. He could be a nice deadline acquisition, though.
Jokinen and Ouellet both play on the wing, where the Oilers have a ton of top-nine options already, but either could be a nice pickup for a team like Vancouver or Calgary (Ouellet in particular; he looked nice playing tough-ish minutes last season). I also can't see the Oilers being terribly interested in Evgeny Artyukhni, who I'd imagine (off the top of my head) winds up in the KHL this season.
That leaves only Chris Gratton. He's a right-handed shot, adds some nice things (faceoffs, team toughness, veteran presence at centre) that the Oilers are missing. He's played middling minutes for lousy Southeast division teams the last couple of seasons; he looked not great in the role in Tampa Bay but did some nice things in 2006-07 for Florida. He's reasonably priced, and on a short-term deal to boot, and I don't know that there's a spot for him in Tampa Bay. He'd be a nice fit between Cole/Pisani, and could help this team make the playoffs in 2008-09. Best of all, it wouldn't surprise me if he'd be available for a second-tier prospect or a castoff.
The article mentions that the Lightning are looking for minor leaguers/draft picks; guys who don't cost much. Looking at their roster, a cheap 6th/7th defenseman might be something they'd bite on to. Between Roy, Hrabel, Wild, and Bisaillon on the defensive end and guys like Jacques, O'Marra, Reddox and McDonald up front, the Oilers have plenty of disposable prospects. It might even be worth a Vande Velde or Chorney to get a guy like Halpern.
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Better not trade for Halpern. Tore his ACL at the Worlds, this article puts his recovery time at Jan09, though I really, REALLY doubt it'll be that early.
http://www.sportsline.com/nhl/players/playerpage/152449
That might be career-ending. I remember the play at the Worlds. It was brutal.
http://www.sportsline.com/nhl/players/playerpage/152449
That might be career-ending. I remember the play at the Worlds. It was brutal.
by doritogrande on Aug 13, 2008 8:12 PM MDT reply actions
In unrelated news, Glenn Anderson's number retirement was announced earlier today. Jan. 18 against (who else?) Phoenix.
by Doogie2K on Aug 13, 2008 8:35 PM MDT reply actions
Tore his ACL at the Worlds, this article puts his recovery time at Jan09, though I really, REALLY doubt it'll be that early.
That's brutal. Guy was a really good player; hopefully he can be again.
That's brutal. Guy was a really good player; hopefully he can be again.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 14, 2008 8:08 AM MDT reply actions
Surely if we trade for a 3c Marc Pouliot would be going the other way.
We can wait 2 or 3 years for Chorney in the AHL and don't have to sign VV for another 2 years.
We don't have the luxury to wait around for Pouliot.
We can wait 2 or 3 years for Chorney in the AHL and don't have to sign VV for another 2 years.
We don't have the luxury to wait around for Pouliot.
by Traktor on Aug 14, 2008 11:14 AM MDT reply actions
Surely if we trade for a 3c Marc Pouliot would be going the other way.
We can wait 2 or 3 years for Chorney in the AHL and don't have to sign VV for another 2 years.
We don't have the luxury to wait around for Pouliot.
Except that Tampa Bay wants non-roster players.
We can wait 2 or 3 years for Chorney in the AHL and don't have to sign VV for another 2 years.
We don't have the luxury to wait around for Pouliot.
Except that Tampa Bay wants non-roster players.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 14, 2008 1:24 PM MDT reply actions
"Except that Tampa Bay wants non-roster players."
Except Edmonton also has too many signed players as is and adding Gratton without dropping one would only add to the mess.
It makes sense if Tampa is the only team with a 3c for grabs or you don't give 2 shits about asset management or Gratton is just a player you can't turn down, but that isn't the case is it?
I assume it's clear to anyone who follows the team that Edmonton is going to have to make decisions on a lot of players in the near future (Poultiot, Schremp, JFJ, Smid, Brule, Potulny, JDD). To me it makes zero sense to use guys like Chorney or Vande Velde as bait when we have a bunch of tweeners that we have to sort out.
If Tampa doesn't want a Pouliot or Potulny then they can look elsewhere to dump, I guess. I'm sure some team our there would find a young signed C with nice potential an attractive option. Toronto, Islanders ect..
Except Edmonton also has too many signed players as is and adding Gratton without dropping one would only add to the mess.
It makes sense if Tampa is the only team with a 3c for grabs or you don't give 2 shits about asset management or Gratton is just a player you can't turn down, but that isn't the case is it?
I assume it's clear to anyone who follows the team that Edmonton is going to have to make decisions on a lot of players in the near future (Poultiot, Schremp, JFJ, Smid, Brule, Potulny, JDD). To me it makes zero sense to use guys like Chorney or Vande Velde as bait when we have a bunch of tweeners that we have to sort out.
If Tampa doesn't want a Pouliot or Potulny then they can look elsewhere to dump, I guess. I'm sure some team our there would find a young signed C with nice potential an attractive option. Toronto, Islanders ect..
by Traktor on Aug 14, 2008 2:07 PM MDT reply actions
Except Edmonton also has too many signed players as is and adding Gratton without dropping one would only add to the mess.
It makes sense if Tampa is the only team with a 3c for grabs or you don't give 2 shits about asset management or Gratton is just a player you can't turn down, but that isn't the case is it?
I assume it's clear to anyone who follows the team that Edmonton is going to have to make decisions on a lot of players in the near future (Poultiot, Schremp, JFJ, Smid, Brule, Potulny, JDD). To me it makes zero sense to use guys like Chorney or Vande Velde as bait when we have a bunch of tweeners that we have to sort out.
Fair enough. For the record, I wouldn't be willing to send either Chorney or Vande Velde to Tampa for Gratton; Gratton would only be worth a prospect with lesser upside.
I see your point about making decisions; I was actually a little misleading in my comment above- where I said "non-roster players" I should have said "non-roster forwards", in other words I think T.B. might bite on a Roy for Gratton swap, or a Roy and McDonald for Gratton swap; strictly junk, and with Roy out of the way the Oilers won't feel forced to carry eight defenders (given that Roy needs to have a decision made on him as well).
It makes sense if Tampa is the only team with a 3c for grabs or you don't give 2 shits about asset management or Gratton is just a player you can't turn down, but that isn't the case is it?
I assume it's clear to anyone who follows the team that Edmonton is going to have to make decisions on a lot of players in the near future (Poultiot, Schremp, JFJ, Smid, Brule, Potulny, JDD). To me it makes zero sense to use guys like Chorney or Vande Velde as bait when we have a bunch of tweeners that we have to sort out.
Fair enough. For the record, I wouldn't be willing to send either Chorney or Vande Velde to Tampa for Gratton; Gratton would only be worth a prospect with lesser upside.
I see your point about making decisions; I was actually a little misleading in my comment above- where I said "non-roster players" I should have said "non-roster forwards", in other words I think T.B. might bite on a Roy for Gratton swap, or a Roy and McDonald for Gratton swap; strictly junk, and with Roy out of the way the Oilers won't feel forced to carry eight defenders (given that Roy needs to have a decision made on him as well).
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 14, 2008 3:11 PM MDT reply actions
Jokinen and Ouellet both play on the wing ...
Jokinen did take 341 faceoffs last season, winning 52.2%. Not sure if that happened in Dallas and/or Tampa, but it doesn't really matter ... he has lined up at centre in the past. I think he's one of those all-purpose Euros best described as a Forward. And I like him, a lot.
That leaves only Chris Gratton. He's a right-handed shot,
Nope, he shoots left.
adds some nice things (faceoffs, team toughness, veteran presence at centre) that the Oilers are missing.
Yes, yes, yes. And size.
He's played middling minutes for lousy Southeast division teams the last couple of seasons; he looked not great in the role in Tampa Bay but did some nice things in 2006-07 for Florida.
He also did some nice things on a truly shitty Tampa Bay squad in '07-08. 1.5 hits/G, a very good GV:TK ratio of 18:30, and as you mention, a good faceoff rate of 54.5% in over 600 draws.
During one of the Brad Richards debates last winter I actually succeeded in getting into the Tampa Bay faceoffs data on timeonice.com (great data, terrible interface). As usual I can't get back in there today so am going from memory ... if I've screwed up in the following, please tell me.
The BR apologists' p.o.v. was that Richards' terrible minus could be partially explained by all the "heavy lifting" draws he took in his own end. However, I discovered that Gratton took a far greater percentage of own zone draws than Richards did, and had way better numbers in both GF ON/60 and GA ON/60, and inevitably a far superior minus figure (just -7 at season's end, on a last-overall team with sieves in net and on the blueline). I came away from it a little more impressed with Gratton than I expected; looks like he might be a solid player in a bad environment.
Expanding to look at his performance since the lockout, including two years with Florida before his return to Tampa:
2005-06 76 GP, 17-22-39, +6, 104 PiM
2006-07 81 GP, 13-22-35, +1, 94 PiM
2007-08 60 GP, 10-11-21, -7, 77 PiM
---------------------------------------
Totals 217 GP, 40-55-95, EVEN, 275 PiM
That net "even" kind of jumps out on teams that went a combined -71 over the three seasons, especially given the responsibilities Gratton seems to have had in at least the last year of the three. (Data from the likes of BtN and ToI will grow in value as they gain the season-over-season context currently restricted to more "traditional" metrics like +/-, which while flawed at least has a bit of history going for it.)
One year left at $1.25 MM seems pretty reasonable for an experienced 3C type, so much so that I expect Tampa might be loathe to dump this guy. That said, this off-season they've added a new flavour for every month of the upcoming season, and might be looking to unload some of the old. They've also got a new management team just waiting to be tested.
Jokinen did take 341 faceoffs last season, winning 52.2%. Not sure if that happened in Dallas and/or Tampa, but it doesn't really matter ... he has lined up at centre in the past. I think he's one of those all-purpose Euros best described as a Forward. And I like him, a lot.
That leaves only Chris Gratton. He's a right-handed shot,
Nope, he shoots left.
adds some nice things (faceoffs, team toughness, veteran presence at centre) that the Oilers are missing.
Yes, yes, yes. And size.
He's played middling minutes for lousy Southeast division teams the last couple of seasons; he looked not great in the role in Tampa Bay but did some nice things in 2006-07 for Florida.
He also did some nice things on a truly shitty Tampa Bay squad in '07-08. 1.5 hits/G, a very good GV:TK ratio of 18:30, and as you mention, a good faceoff rate of 54.5% in over 600 draws.
During one of the Brad Richards debates last winter I actually succeeded in getting into the Tampa Bay faceoffs data on timeonice.com (great data, terrible interface). As usual I can't get back in there today so am going from memory ... if I've screwed up in the following, please tell me.
The BR apologists' p.o.v. was that Richards' terrible minus could be partially explained by all the "heavy lifting" draws he took in his own end. However, I discovered that Gratton took a far greater percentage of own zone draws than Richards did, and had way better numbers in both GF ON/60 and GA ON/60, and inevitably a far superior minus figure (just -7 at season's end, on a last-overall team with sieves in net and on the blueline). I came away from it a little more impressed with Gratton than I expected; looks like he might be a solid player in a bad environment.
Expanding to look at his performance since the lockout, including two years with Florida before his return to Tampa:
2005-06 76 GP, 17-22-39, +6, 104 PiM
2006-07 81 GP, 13-22-35, +1, 94 PiM
2007-08 60 GP, 10-11-21, -7, 77 PiM
---------------------------------------
Totals 217 GP, 40-55-95, EVEN, 275 PiM
That net "even" kind of jumps out on teams that went a combined -71 over the three seasons, especially given the responsibilities Gratton seems to have had in at least the last year of the three. (Data from the likes of BtN and ToI will grow in value as they gain the season-over-season context currently restricted to more "traditional" metrics like +/-, which while flawed at least has a bit of history going for it.)
One year left at $1.25 MM seems pretty reasonable for an experienced 3C type, so much so that I expect Tampa might be loathe to dump this guy. That said, this off-season they've added a new flavour for every month of the upcoming season, and might be looking to unload some of the old. They've also got a new management team just waiting to be tested.
by Bruce on Aug 14, 2008 6:31 PM MDT reply actions
Jokinen did take 341 faceoffs last season, winning 52.2%. Not sure if that happened in Dallas and/or Tampa, but it doesn't really matter ... he has lined up at centre in the past. I think he's one of those all-purpose Euros best described as a Forward. And I like him, a lot.
He'd be an... interesting experiment as a third line centre. Otherwise, would you displace one of the kids for him?
One year left at $1.25 MM seems pretty reasonable for an experienced 3C type, so much so that I expect Tampa might be loathe to dump this guy. That said, this off-season they've added a new flavour for every month of the upcoming season, and might be looking to unload some of the old. They've also got a new management team just waiting to be tested.
Well the old management team wasn't anything to write home about, and I think this new one is even worse. Besides which, with Tortorella/Feaster and most everyone else gone, I doubt they have much institutional memory for who did what last season.
He'd be an... interesting experiment as a third line centre. Otherwise, would you displace one of the kids for him?
One year left at $1.25 MM seems pretty reasonable for an experienced 3C type, so much so that I expect Tampa might be loathe to dump this guy. That said, this off-season they've added a new flavour for every month of the upcoming season, and might be looking to unload some of the old. They've also got a new management team just waiting to be tested.
Well the old management team wasn't anything to write home about, and I think this new one is even worse. Besides which, with Tortorella/Feaster and most everyone else gone, I doubt they have much institutional memory for who did what last season.
by Jonathan Willis on Aug 14, 2008 7:32 PM MDT reply actions
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