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How Do You Like Your Rebuild?

A couple of interesting players here. The Canadian player is John Tavares, while the Swedish player is Victor Hedman. One of these two will almost certainly be the first player selected in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, with the current favourite right now likely Hedman.

A commonly accepted axiom is that to rebuild, a team needs to demolish, throwing every veteran, useful or not, off the bus and playing the young kids until they drop. It's the kind of thinking espoused by a guy like Dave Shoalts in Toronto, and although rather mindless, it has the virtue of being almost certain to succeed. Hockey's a cyclical game; teams are good, and then they're bad, and then they're good again.

Dean Lombardi has been practicing this strategy with ruthless efficiency in Los Angeles. It took him a while to decide to go that route; he was named G.M in April of 2006, and after selling off assets at the 2006-07 trade deadline, he went out and signed a bunch of second-tier veterans: Brad Stuart, Michal Handzus, Ladislav Nagy, Tom Preissing, etc. Now though, the Kings have a nice looking group of young forwards, a bunch of not-ready-for-primetime defenseman, and probably the most underrated goalie in the league in Jason Labarbera. All this, and they sit underneath the salary cap floor (incidentally, the more I think about the length of Lubomir Visnovsky's contract, the less thrilled I am with the move to acquire him).

The problem, of course, is that these kids eventually want to be paid. We saw it in Tampa Bay a few years back, where Jay Feaster decided to keep Lecavalier, St. Louis and Richards together for big money and use haywire and duct tape to fill out the rest of the roster. It didn't work out; Tampa Bay got a championship out of it, but there wasn't any sustain to the team.

Pittsburgh is in a similar boat now; they made the choice to allow supporting players like Ryan Malone and Marian Hossa walk this year, and if they aren't careful, they'll end up top-heavy and far too shallow to be legitimate contenders, even with Crosby.

The point I'm making with this is that there's an extremely limited window with the fire-sale team building method. Eventually (and it usually doesn't take any longer than the 3-year entry contract) all these top-ten picks want to get paid like their counting numbers say they should, and the team is either forced to abandon the players or to rob the temple to pay for them. Most NHL executives seem to subscribe to the notion that the marquee player is the most important part of the team, and end up looking like Jay Feaster.

The Oilers just went through a mini-rebuild; it's been two years thus far, and there's light at the end of the tunnel. They're likely a playoff team this year, and they still have lots of upside. Additionally, with the exception of Gagner, there aren't a lot of marquee names needing contracts soon; Robert Nilsson was a late-bloomer and he's lost some luster and was recently re-signed to a very reasonable contract, and even nice prospects like Andrew Cogliano and Ladislav Smid have glaring flaws that should keep them affordable.

The cost of this rebuild was incredible; since 2005-06 Chris Pronger, Ryan Smyth, Sergei Samsonov, Jason Smith, Jaroslav Spacek, Jarret Stoll, Raffi Torres, Joni Pitkanen, Mike Peca, Petr Sykora, Joffrey Lupul, Radek Dvorak, M-A Bergeron, Jan Hejda, Marty Reasoner, Georges Laraque and Matt Greene (as well as some others) have been shown the door. That's a ton of player movement in a relatively short time frame.

Still, although the rebuild was probably unneccessary (overpay for Spacek, don't trade Pronger for anything less than a number one defenseman and a young forward), Kevin Lowe did a good job grabbing assets using a simple rule: acquire volume. The Oilogosphere often stresses the need to acquire quality over quantity, but when dealing with young players, it can be difficult to predict where they end up and quantity is a safer (maybe not better, but safer) bet than quality.

The thing is, rebuilds shouldn't be neccessary. Detroit is the obvious reference here; a team that's been the oldest or nearly the oldest in the league for the last decade, but has stayed on top (although how they'll handle Lidstrom's eventual retirement is anyone's guess). How? By making smart bets.

A long series of good choices is a difficult thing to do; many a successful general manager can't keep making them (Lou Lamoriello, post-lockout, is a good example). An important part is staying away from bad contracts - spending a bunch of money on one-dimensional players, second-tier goaltenders, etc. Another important part is putting kids in a position where they can succeed - if there are seven kids in need of a roster spot, pick the three you like and shelter them. The guys who won't be delayed and aren't at the top-end get traded off, either for draft picks or immediate help. Sign capable veterans at bargain basement rates - good examples this off-season include Kurt Sauer and Jason Williams. Picking up defensively sound guys who can do a variety of things (Mike Johnson, summer of 2007) and play 4th line minutes for cheap money is also important.

When a team is in an awful situation, with limited assets/prospects, sometimes a complete demolition is the best option. Most of the time, though, rebuilding on the run is the best way to do things - and it's what both of last years' Western Finalists did.

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The thing about success is that it's easier to maintain than it is to achieve. Detroit has succeeded at a high level, so everything else follows. Free agents are interested in playing for them (and the free agents who want to win, which helps), drafted guys get to develop at the rate they need to, there's an expectation and confidence in winning...

But if you're, say, the Toronto Maple Leafs, you might as well blow the whole thing up. Their last cup was before expansion, they haven't been anywhere near a final in years and they have some truly awful contracts. There's no culture of winning to maintain, so the only thing they can do is collect such a run of talent, that they can't help but win, the way Pittsburg did.

Pittsburg still needs to trade one of their centers for some help on the wings. Could Jordan Staal fetch them Bouwmeester? Can they find a winger for Crosby?

by Paper Designer on Aug 24, 2008 12:14 AM PDT reply actions  

By the way, I'm not losing a wink of sleep over Visnovsky's contract. I don't really think that finesse, swift-skating defencemen are really a worry. I worry more about a guy like Souray, who when he loses a step, he goes from "kinda slow" to "pylon".

by Paper Designer on Aug 24, 2008 12:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Visnovsky's contract doesn't get any attention because of the Souray contract. One's a risk the other is a denver boot.

The biggest tragedies of the last two seasons are:

1. self inflicted
2. two years of Hemmer's contract burned for zippo.

by Lowetide on Aug 24, 2008 7:33 AM PDT reply actions  

and probably the most underrated goalie in the league in Jason Labarbera.

Heh. I contributed some material to fanball.com for their draft guide recently and said pretty much the same thing. Looks like Tyler Dellow has us convinced.

by Kent W. on Aug 24, 2008 8:11 AM PDT reply actions  

Visnovsky's contract doesn't get any attention because of the Souray contract. One's a risk the other is a denver boot.

Yeah, Visnovsky's not a bad bet, but the two of them for 11M for the next three decades is a little scary.

Looks like Tyler Dellow has us
convinced.


Yep. He got me to start looking at the guy, and the more I do, the more I'm sold.

by Jonathan Willis on Aug 24, 2008 8:21 AM PDT reply actions  

"and even nice prospects like Andrew Cogliano and Ladislav Smid have glaring flaws that should keep them affordable."

What would Cogliano's glaring flaw be?

by Say No to Mike Johnson on Aug 24, 2008 12:44 PM PDT reply actions  

What would Cogliano's glaring flaw be?

Size. Size is always going to be an issue with Cogliano, and unless he turns into an elite scorer, he'll be under-rated and likely under compensated for what he brings to the table.

by Jonathan Willis on Aug 24, 2008 1:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Nice post Jonathan. I'm not big on the full blown rebuilds. They work but they take 5 years (even if you are lucky enough to draft Crosby and Malkin).

Detroit and Dallas are the only teams over the past 10 years that have managed to stay elite. They have excellent scouts and an elite defender. Lidstrom gets alot of credit but Zubov doesnt get the recognition he deserves. IMO for long term success, having an elite defender is better than having an elite forward. Thats why Prongers departure stings even more.

how they'll handle Lidstrom's eventual retirement is anyone's guess

My guess: Jay Bouwmeester

by Sean on Aug 25, 2008 9:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Detroit and Dallas are the only teams over the past 10 years that have managed to stay elite.

Well, Philly, San Jose and New Jersey have all stayed in the range (aside from the 06-07 trainwreck in Philly).

My guess: Jay Bouwmeester

THAT is very interesting. I'm not sure what they'd offer to get him out of Florida, but he looks like the kind of player they'd pick up, doesn't he?

by Jonathan Willis on Aug 25, 2008 10:03 AM PDT reply actions  

Well, Philly, San Jose and New Jersey have all stayed in the range (aside from the 06-07 trainwreck in Philly).

Phillies one year rebuild would be hard to duplicate. They had breakout seasons from Richards and sort of Carter. Plus Timonen, although probably overpaid, is a beauty. I'm still waiting for NJ to tank but they havent been the same since Neidermayer left. My whole premise for the argument is that for l/t success an elite defender is more valuable than an elite forward.

THAT is very interesting. I'm not sure what they'd offer to get him out of Florida, but he looks like the kind of player they'd pick up, doesn't he?

I'd bet Detroit doesnt move until next summer when JBo is UFA. He'll probably take a "Detroit discount" too. The guy hasnt won a playoff series since he was like 16. Although Detroit does need to resign Zetterberg and Franzen (and Hossa) so it might not work financially. The Oilers I dont think would be completely out of the JBo sweepstakes because he is from Edmonton. But from everything I've heard JBo is a bit of an introvert who doesnt really want to play in his hometown. It would also mean we'd need to get rid of Sourrays contract. I'd be willing to offer 44, 13, 88 and a first and that probably wouldnt be enough. Start schmoozing now Katz!

by Sean on Aug 25, 2008 3:02 PM PDT reply actions  

THAT is very interesting. I'm not sure what they'd offer to get him out of Florida, but he looks like the kind of player they'd pick up, doesn't he?

Marian Hossa's money. He's a UFA next year.

by Doogie2K on Aug 25, 2008 10:41 PM PDT reply actions  

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